FX ANALYTICS  COMMENTARY

                                 FXA home page                                                   David Solin                                      (860) 767-9103 / dsolin@fxa.com 

 

Auto Refresh: On (Turn Off)

*Blog updates generally Mon, Wed, Fri, Sat

August 16, 2019

[2100/1600] Bitcoin  continues to consolidate from the Jun 26th high at 13868, seen as a correction with eventual new highs after.  May be forming a triangle/pennant (series of 3 waves, a-b-c moves in both directions, tighter and tighter range) and would argue another few weeks of consolidating in that tighter and tighter range before finally resolving higher (see in re don daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling/bear t-line from June (cur at 12000/12250), that 13750/14000 June high and the ceiling of the bear channel from Dec 2017 (cur at 14750/1500).  Support is seen at the base/bull t-line from July (cur at 9050/9300). 

[1900/1400] A$/kiwi building on the bounce back from the Aug 6th spike low at 1.0265 (test of the Mar low), false break of the base of the bear channel from Apr and currently pushing above the ceiling.  Another bullish sign and with no confirmation of a peak argues further gains.  Note however that the upside momentum may be starting to slow as the market approaches further, long term resistance at 1.0580/05 (ceiling of bear channel from Aug 2018, ceiling of 2 week bull channel) so a tough time to chase if not already positioned.  Nearby support is seen at 1.0485/00 (base of multi-week bull channel, broken ceiling of bear channel from Apr) and 1.0440/55. 

[1700/1200] Silver firm near recent highs and test of longer term resistance at $17.50/65 (ceiling of bear channel and 50% from the Jul 2016 high at $21.15 and the ceiling of the bull channel from June).  With the market overbought after the last few months of gains a "potential" area to form a peak for at least a few weeks/month, a similar view as gold (see earlier sent email).  Though no confirmation will be looking for further signs ahead to increase the likelihood (poor upside follow-through, false break of this key resistance, 5 waves down on short term chart, etc.).  Nearby support is seen at $16.65/75 (bull t-line from late Jul, broken rising t-line from March) and the base of the bull channel from June (cur at $16.20/30). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen choppy near recent lows with the slowing downside momentum and oversold market after the last month (and more) of declines arguing an approaching bottom (for at least a few weeks and likely months).  Though no confirmation so far, any further downside would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Further support is just below the recent 117.50 low at the multi-week falling support line, base of the wedge/reversal pattern), nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling (cur at 119.15/30) and the broken t-line from Jan (cur at 120.00/15).  

[1300/0800] Eur/$ lower again and as discussed, such weakness would be seen part of a longer term bottoming (versus the start of a major, new tumble).  Though no confirmation of even a short term low so far, the market is testing support that falling trendline from Nov (cur at 1.1050/65) and "potential" area to form a low.  But even a break would likely be limited and still part of this approaching, more important bottom.  Further support below there is seen at 1.1010/25 (Aug 1st spike low).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1160/75 and the bear t-line from late June (cur at 1.1210/25).  

August 14, 2019

[2100/1600] Wide swings in the S&P 500 after declining from the Jul 26th high at 3028 and test of the very long discussed "ideal" area to form a major top (at least 6-9 months).  As been discussing however, there remains scope for at least another few weeks/month of these wide swings in the both directions as part of this larger topping process (a common occurrence) and before rolling over more significantly.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from Jul (cur at 2835/40), that Aug 5th 2820/25 low and the base of the bull channel from May (cur at 2783/88).  Nearby resistance is seen at 25874/79 and 2943/48 (recent highs, 62% from the 3028 peak). 

[1900/1400] Kiwi sagging back toward the Aug 7th spike low at .6375, a common occurrence after such sharp moves (backfilling).  Seen as a bottoming with an oversold market after the nearly one way plunge from the July 19th high at .6790 adding to that view.  Longer term support is again seen in that .6375/00 area (base of the bull channel from 2015) an "ideal" area to form a bottom and potentially more major bottom.  Nearby resistance is seen at the broken bull trendline from Oct 2018 (cur at .6500/25).  

[1700/1200] In gold another new high and test of the ceiling of the bull channel from late May (cur at $1535/38, see daily chart below).  In the big picture, the market is no doubt overbought after the huge surge from Apr and suggests a rising potential of a top for at least a few months.  At this point however, there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term peak "pattern-wise" (5 waves down on shorter term chart for example, and larger tops generally begin with smaller ones).  Nearby support is seen at $1481/84, the broken, rising t-line from June (cur at $1465/68) and the base of the multi-month bull channel (cur at $1421/24). 

[1500/1000] $/yen choppy from yesterday's low and test of support at 104.75/05 (base of bear channel from Apr, Jan 3rd low), with a bottom for at least a few weeks (and potentially months) seen nearing.  Though still no confirmation, further near term downside would likely be limited and part of a larger bottoming (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at 105.50/65, resistance remains at that falling trendline from last Jan (cur at 106.60/85). 

[1300/0800] In eur/$ in the bigger picture, no change as the market is seen bottom/bottoming for at least a month and potentially much more (see email from Monday).  Currently little moved from the Aug 6th high at 1.1250 and with eventual gains toward that bear t-line from Sept/ceiling of the large wedge (cur at 1.1340/55) still favored.  However, a break below that support at the falling t-line from June (cur at 1.1135/50) would argue a more extended period of bottoming first (see in red on daily chart below).  Further support below that is seen at the base of the large wedge (cur at 1.1040/55).  

 

August 12, 2019

[2100/1600] AAPL (Apple Computer stock) sharply down from the Jul 31st high at $221 and slight break of the May 1st high at $215.  A bearish failure and suggests a more major top/topping (at least another few months and potentially much more).  Note however, there is scope for a further period of this ranging and potential even a final slight new high before more major downside is seen (poss rising wedge from Jan, see in red on daily chart below).  Note too this fits the potential of a more extended period of wide ranging/topping in the S&P 500.  Further support below the recent $192/93 low is seen at the bull t-line/base of the poss wedge (cur at $183/84).  Nearby resistance is seen at $207/08 (50% from the $221 high).  

[1900/1400] A$/kiwi consolidating near recent highs and resistance at the ceiling of that long discussed bear channel from Apr (cur at 1.0520/35).   With still no confirmation of a resolution, must stay with the approach of fading the extremes and then being aggressive with stops in an attempt to capture some of these nearer term swings.  Nearby support is seen at 1.0410/25 and the base of the channel (cur at 1.0320/35).    

[1700/1200] $/swiss near recent lows at .9680 and testing "pivotal" support (Jun low, 50% from the Feb 2018 low at .9185 and the base of the bull channel from May 2018).  Seen "pivotal" as remaining above would keep open scope for another few weeks/month of ranging and potentially even a retest of the ceiling of the multi-month range at .9950/75 before resuming the longer term decline (see in red on daily chart below).  Resistance before there is seen at .9795/10 (last week's high, 38% retracement from the Aug 1st peak at .9975).   

[1500/1000] Another new low in eur/yen, reaching support at 117.35/50 (base of bear channel from early June) and a level not seen since Apr 2017.  The quick bounce from slight new low (sign of underlying strength) and oversold market after the last few months of sharp declines suggests a rising potential of a bottom.  Though no confirmation of even a shorter term low so far, a further slowing downside momentum would start to increase the likelihood.  Nearby resistance is seen at 118.60/75 and 119.85/00 (both last week's high and the broken falling support line from Jan).  

[1300/0800] US$/DXY bouncing back above that bull t-line from Jun (cur at 97.20/35) with a close above a near term bullish false break, and suggesting further gains back toward that Aug 1st high at 98.80/95 (also the rising t-line from Nov).  But be warned, further near tern upside (and potentially even new highs) would likely be limited and seen part of a longer term topping (versus the start of a more major, new upleg).  Resistance before there is again at 98.25/40 (Apr/May highs).  

August 09, 2019

OFF DESK REMAINDER OF DAY

[1500/1000] Silver consolidating from the Apr 17th high at $17.25, is overbought after the surge since May and suggests a rising potential of a top for at least a month or 2.  As with gold however (see earlier sent email), there is no confirmation of even a shorter term peak "pattern-wise" and in turn argues further gains.  But be warned with the market overbought and longer term resistance just above the recent $17.25 high in that $17.35/55 area (ceiling of bear channel and 50% retracement from the Jul 2016 high at $21.15), further upside may become more "difficult" as the momentum slows and a top nears.  Nearby support is seen at the broken ceiling of the bull channel from last Nov (cur at $16.60/70). 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY consolidating near recent lows and test of the bull trendline from Jun.  In the big picture part of the long discussed, extended period of ranging with a slight upward bias and with scope for more ranging and even a retest (and slight break o the Aug 1st high at 98.95 as part of the process).  Note too that the upside pattern from the June low is not "complete" (cur within wave iv) and adds to that view of a another near term upleg (within wave v).  But be warned this larger ranging is occurring as a potentially more major top approaches (6-9 months).   

August 07, 2019

[1900/1400] A$ spiking to another new low at .6675 and a level not seen since 2009.  No doubt the market is very oversold after the tumble from the July 19th high at .7085 and suggests an increase potential of bottom for at least a few weeks (and potentially more).  At this point there is still no confirmation, but a break back above that falling support line from Oct (cur .6790/15), would increase the likelihood (bullish false break).  Further resistance above there is seen at .6840/55 (38% from the .7085 high), support is seen at .6730/45. 

[1700/1200] Gold surging to another new high, breaking just above that longer term resistance at $1385/95 (ceiling of bear channel and 50% from the Sept 2011 high at $1921, and the ceiling of the bull channel from Dec 2015, see weekly chart below) and reaching levels not seen since 2013.  Though a bullish sign, the market is overbought after the last few months (and longer) of sharp gains, so would be wary of a bearish false break (reversing to close back below) as it would suggest a top for at least a few weeks/month.  

[1500/1000] $/yen consolidating near recent lows and support at the base of the bear channel from Apr (cur at 105.40/55, see daily chart below).  With the market short tem oversold after the recent tumble, seen as a "potential" area to form a bottom/consolidate for at least a week or 2 (though still no confirmation so far).  Nearby resistance is seen in the 106.55/80 area (both the broken, falling support line from last Jan and the June 25th low).    

[1300/0800] Eur/$ has continued higher from the Aug 1st spike low at 1.1025 and as the view of a bottom (and potentially major bottom, 9-12 months) remains.  That bullish false break of the falling support line from Apr and bullish technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd) add to the view of a bottom.  Short term there is scope for a few days of consolidating but a resumption of the gains would be favored after (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at 1.1130/45 and again that falling support line from Apr (cur at 1.1060/75).  Further resistance above the recent 1.1240/55 high is seen at the bear trendline from Sept/ceiling of the large falling wedge/reversal pattern (cur at 1.1340/55). 

August 05, 2019

[2100/1600] S&P 500 has continued to tumble from the Jul 26th high at 3028 and test of the long discussed "ideal" area to form a more major top.  Short term the market is no doubt oversold with potential for at least a few days of a bounce back at virtually any time.  Though no confirmation of such a low, the market is testing support at the base of the bull channel from Dec (cur at 2820/25) and 2770/75 just below (both the base of the bull channel from may and a 38% retracement from the Dec 2018 low at 237), so such a bounce may be near.  

[1900/1400] Kiwi at another new low, building on the tumble from the July 19th high at .6790 and testing support at .6475/90 (May low).   No doubt the market is quite oversold with potential of a bottom for at least a few weeks rising rapidly.  At this point there is still no confirmation of even a shorter teem low but would expect any further downside to be limited/short-lived.  Note too that long term support is just below the base of the bullish channel from 2015 (cur at .650/75), adding the view that further downside would likely be limited.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6550/65 and .6590/05 (38% retracement from the July peak). 

[1700/1200] Copper has continued its sharp decline over the last few weeks and within the even larger decline since Apr, right into the key $2.50/55 support area that has provided support since last Aug (see daily chart below).  Though there is no confirmation of even a short term low (so far) a potential area to provide at least a short term bounce (week or 2 and potentially more), while a break/close below would potentially trigger a continued tumble.  Nearby resistance is seen at $2.59/61 (broken Jul low), $2.66/68 and the bear t-line from Apr cur at ($2.77/79).  

[1500/1000] Eur/gbp at another new high, building on the surge from the Mar 12th low at .8475, reaching a level not seen since 2017 and into longer term resistance at .9205/30 (bear t-line from 2008m ceiling of bull channel from Apr).  No doubt the market is quite overbought after the last few months of sharp gains while the upside momentum may be starting to slow.  However, there is no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise" so bias must be/remain to the upside (though risk is rising).  Nearby support is seen at the broken, rising t-line from June (cur at .9090/05.

[1300/0800] US$/DXY still tumbling from last week's high at 98.95 and as that bigger picture bullish view since late June (as a more major top approaches) remains.  Short term that recent decline is seen as a correction (wave iv in the rally from the Jun low) along with still bullish technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd) argues near term gains back to the 98.95 (ands even slightly above, within wave v) as that more major top approaches.  Resistance before there is seen at 98.25/0 (Apr/May highs), nearby support is seen at 97.5/60 base of bull channel from July, broken high from July) and the bull t-line from the June low (cur at 97.10/25).    

August 02, 2019

[1900/1400] Silver has indeed continued to consolidate from the Jul 25th high and test of resistance at  $16.65 (both the ceiling of the bull channel from Nov and a 38% retracement from the Jul 2016 high at $21.15, see daily chart below).  No confirmation of a top “pattern-wise” argues a correction and with eventual new highs after.  However, there is scope for another week or 2 of ranging first.  Nearby support is seen at the recent $15.90/95 low and the base of the bull channel from June (cur at $15.65/70).

[1700/1200] Kiwi lower again, building on the tumble from the Jul 19th high at .6790 (and then also the bear t-line from Apr 2018).  Though no confirmation of even a short term bottom, the market is no doubt oversold while within lots of longer term support down into the .6475 area (May low, base of the bull channel from 2015, see daily chart below).  So would expect further downside to be limited as a potentially more important bottom nears.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6565/80 and .6640/55 (50% from the .6790 peak).

[1500/1000] Eur/yen accelerating sharply lower after yesterday’s break below that key falling support line since Jan and reaching 118.30 so far.  No doubt a bearish sign suggesting at least another few weeks of downside.  However tough time to chase as the market is near term oversold and versus waiting for a bounce to sell in to.  Nearby resistance is seen at 119.15/30 and that broken trendline from Jan (cur at 120.15/40, retests common).  Further support below the earlier 118.30 low is seen at the base of the bear channel from June 9cur at 117.65/80).

[1300/0800] US$/DXY turning lower from yesterday’s high at 98.95 after breaking above the Apr/May highs 98.35 and as the bull view since late June remains.  As been warning however, the bigger picture gains may be limited as a more major top is seen nearing versus the start of a more significant, new upleg.  At this point there is still no confirmation of that more major top leaving open scope a further period of a broader ranging/topping before more major declines are seen.  Nearby support is seen at 97.90/05 and the base of the month long bull channel (cur at 97.40/55), resistance is again seen at 98.30/55/50.