FX ANALYTICS  COMMENTARY

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January 25, 2020

Eur/$ remains under pressure, down from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 (then also the ceiling of the bear channel from Jan 2019).  In the big picture and as been discussing over the last few weeks, that inability to follow through on the upside soon after argued a more extended period of wide ranging (as much as a few months) and potentially even new (but limited) downside below that Oct 1.0880 low.  At this point the timing of that downside is a question (more directly ahead or extended period of broad, ranging lower), but the market is testing support at 1.1010/25 (62% from the Oct low, base of bull channel from Oct, base of bear channel from the high) and "potential" area to form a bottom for at least a few weeks (no confirmation so far and thus the term "potential" to reflect the currently lower confidence).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1070/85 and the ceiling of of the bear channel from the high (cur at 1.1130/45).  

$/yen has indeed rolled over from the Jan 17th high at 110.30 (then bear t-line from Jun 2015/ceiling of bull channel from Oct) and as the bigger picture view of a top for at least a few months remains.  Bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd) and overbought market after the rally from the Aug low at 104.40 remain as big picture negatives.  But be warned, the action ahead may be more an extended period of ranging/chopping with a downside bias (and good sized swings in both direction), and versus a more major tumble (see email from last Monday).  Nearby support is seen at 108.85/00 (50% from the Jan 8th low at 107.65) and 107.80/95 (base of bull channels from Oct and Aug).  Nearby resistance is seen at 109.65/80 and again that 110.15/30 area. 

US 10yr yield near recent lows, testing lots of support at 1.67/69% (50% and bull t-line from the Sept low at 1.43%, Dec 3rd low, base of channel from Nov).  Seen "pivotal" for the bigger picture as remaining above keeps open scope for gains back to that 1.97% peak and even above (larger rising wedge-like pattern since Sept).  A break/close below however, would argue a more important is in place and target declines back toward that 1.43% low.  Nearby resistance is seen at the multi-week bear t-line (cur at 1.81/82%) and that 1.96/97% area.

US$/DXY has indeed continued higher from the Dec 31st low at 96.35 (then also that falling support line from Oct), breaking above that bearish trendline from the Oct high.  In the big picture, argues a more extended period of wide ranging back toward that 99.65 (as much as a month or 2) as part of a more major topping.  Note too that technicals remain bullish (see buy mode on the daily macd).  Currently the market is nearing resistance at 98.00/15 (50% retracement and top of bear channel from the Oct peak) and may provide a top for at least a week or 2 in this larger period of wide ranging (though no confirmation so far).  Nearby support is seen at 97.55/70 (base of the bull channel from the low and that broken bear t-line from the Oct high). 

Oil building on the huge tumble from the Jan 8th high at $65.62, reaching a recent low at $53.89.  Though still no confirmation of even a short term bottom (so far), the market is no doubt oversold and would expect any further downside to become more "difficult"/limited as the downside momentum starts to slow and bottom (and potential $4-$5 bounce) nears.  Nearby support is seen at $53.75/00 (recent low, base of the multi-week bear channel) and the base of the bull channel from Sept (cur at $53.10/35).  Nearby resistance is seen at $55.50/75, the bear t-line from the Jan 8th spike high (cur at $56.50/75) and the ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at $57.75/00). 

$/cad near recent highs, up from the Dec 31st low at 1.2950 (also base of bear channel from Sept) and with gains to the ceiling (cur at 1.3305/20) still favored.  Though there is some risk for a week or 2 of consolidating, a resumption of the gains would be favored ahead.  Note that technicals are still bullish (see buy mode on the daily macd) while the upmove from the low occurred in 5 waves (upside not "complete").  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3170/85 (recent high, ceiling of the bull channel from the low).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3100/15, that bull t-line from July (cur at 1.3075/90) and the base of the channel from the low (cur just below).  

More choppy trade in cable as the view over the last month of an extended period of wide ranging from the Dec spike high at 1.3515 (as the market corrects the upmove from Sept) and with eventual new highs after, continues to play out.  Still favor a triangle/pennant forming and would argue another few weeks of trading in a tighter and tighter range before resolving higher.  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling/bear t-line from late Dec (cur at 1.3180/95), support is seen at 1.3050/65 and the bull t-line from Nov/base (cur at 1.2980/95).  

In gold, the view over the last few weeks of an extended period of wide chopping (month or more as part of a major topping) continues to play out.  Nearby support is seen at $1550/53 (base of bull channel from Nov, bull t-line from Jan 14th) with a break/close below below arguing weakness toward $1535/38 (Jan 14th low) and even $1526/29 (50% from the Nov 12th low at $1446, multi-week falling support line) as part of this larger period of wide ranging.  Nearby resistance is seen at $1473/76.   

A$ has continued lower from the Dec 31st peak at .7035 (also the ceiling of the bear channel from Dec 2018) and as been discussing over the last few weeks, the inability to resume the larger upmove argues a more extended period of wide ranging and even new lows below that Oct .6670 low (but likely limited/short-lived).  Note too the the 3 wave rally from Oct (A-B-C, a correction) and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd).  But the path/timing of the downside is a question (more directly ahead or extended period of chopping).  Nearby support is seen at .6790/05 (bull t-line and 62% retracement from the .6670), resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the high (cur at .6880/95, break/close above would increase the likelihood of more extended path lower).   

S&P 500 slipping from the Jan 22nd high at 3338 with lots of negatives suggesting an increasing risk of a top (and 200 pt decline).  They include an overbought market after the 1 way surge from the Oct low at 2856, in the final upleg from that low (wave v) and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd).  But as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example) and given the still strong momentum, must continue to assume further gains.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from early Dec (cur at 3275/80) and the bull t-line from Oct (cur at 3215/20).  Resistance above the recent 3338 high is seen at the rising t-line from Nov (cur at 3350/55). 

January 18, 2020

Eur/$ near recent lows, down from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 and testing support at 1.1080/95 (Jan 10th low, bull t-line from early Dec).  In the big picture, the failure to resume the larger upside has increased the likelihood of a more extended period of wide ranging (few months, and even new lows below 1.0880) as part of a more major bottoming.  So strategically looking to trade with a shorter term bias, fading extremes, key support/resistance areas given the expectation of more of this wide rangy/choppy trade ahead.  Further support is just below 1.1080/95 at 1.1045/60 (both the bull t-line from late Nov and a 50% retracement from the 1.0880 low).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the high (cur at 1.1155/70) and again that 1.1225/40 area (Dec high, ceiling of the bear channel from Jan 2019).   

$/yen near recent highs, into lots of resistance at 110.30/55 (bear t-line from 2015, ceiling of bull channel from Oct) and an "ideal" area to form a top for at least a few weeks (and likely longer).  Still no confirmation but looking for higher confidence of at least a shorter term top to increase the likelihood (5 waves down on short term chart, bearish false break of this resistance, etc.) as larger reversals generally begin with smaller ones.  Nearby support is seen at 109.60/75 (multiple broken highs from Nov) and 108.85/00 (50% from the Jan 8th spike low at 107.65).  

US 10yr yield in recent ranges, still forming that very long discussed rising wedge from Sept.  Though this still targets eventual gains above that Nov 1.97% high, there remains that risk for more ranging and even a retest of the key 1.67/69% area first (base of the wedge, Dec 3rd low, 50% from the Sept low at 1.43%, base of channel from Nov, see in red on daily chart below).  Support before there is seen at 1.76/77% (recent lows), resistance is seen at 1.96/97%.   

US$/DXY has indeed continued higher from the Dec 31st low at 96.35 and quickly nearing that bigger picture "pivotal" resistance at 97.85/15 (bear t-line and 50% from the Oct high 99.65).  In the longer term, the view over the last few months of a major top (9-12 months) at the Oct peak remains.  Seen "pivotal" as staying below would keep open scope for that larger rolling over (and more significant declines) ahead.  However a break/close above would argue a more extended period (as much as a few months) of this longer term ranging/topping first.  Nearby support is seen at the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at 97.05/20) and again that key 96.20/35 area (Dec low, falling support line from Oct). 

Oil finally stabilizing after the huge reversal from the Jan 8th spike high at $65.62 and with at least another few weeks of upside ahead.  A couple of other notes...there is some potential for another few days of bottoming as reversals after sharp moves often take a more extended period of time (to allow the momentum to slow).  Additionally, this upside may be good sized as market will often back fill areas of rapid moves (as seen at that Jan 8th reversal).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the week long bear channel (cur at $58.80/05) and $60.45/70 (38% from the $65.62 spike high).  Support is seen at $57.40/65 (recent low, bull t-line from Oct).  

In cable no change in the big picture view over the last month of an extended period of wide ranging from the Dec 13th peak at 1.3515 (as the market corrects after the rally from the Sept low at 1.1955).  Short term the market is just above "pivotal" support at the bull t-line from Nov (cur at 1.2950/75) as remaining above would argue a more limited, big picture downside (potential huge triangle/pennant ?), while a break/close below would argue a deeper pullback (as part of this multi-month correction).  Further support below there is seen at 1.2890/05 (Dec 23rd low) and the base of the bull t-line from Sept (cur at 1.2815/40).   

$/cad choppy near recent highs, up from the Dec 31st low at 1.2950.  With no confirmation of a more important low (at least so far) and false break of that bull t-line from Jul, "prefer" (reflects lower confidence) of a rolling over and declines back to the 1.2935/50 low (also the falling support line from Feb 2019 and potentially below).  Support before there is seen at 1.3015/30.  Note however that a break/close above that Jan 9th high at 1.3100/15 would abort and argue a more important low is in place (so a good risk/reward area to be short against).  

Gold in the $1536/$1611 range since that Jan 8th spike high and as the view of an extended period of wide chopping (as much as a few months) as part of a major topping, remains.  In general would have an approach of fading the extremes (and then being aggressive with stops) as the swings in both directions are expected to be wide.  Nearby resistance is seen at ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at $1565/68).  Support is seen at $1545/48, $1535/38 (recent low) and $1526/29 (Jan 14th low, base of the channel, 50% from the Nov low at $1446).     

A$ within that bigger picture "pivotal" time (resumption of larger gains or more extended period of ranging/bottoming to that Oct .6670).  Currently not a lot of confidence in either but the inability to resume of the bigger picture gains over the next week or 2 and/or break below .6825/50 support (base of channel from late Oct, 50% from .6670 and Jan 8th low) would increase the likelihood of that longer term bottoming first.  Nearby support is seen at the the bull t-line from Nov (cur at .6860/75), resistance is seen at .6930/45 (recent high) and .7020/35 (Dec high, ceiling of bear channel from Dec 2018).  

S&P 500 at yet another new, all time high.  As been discussing for quite a while, despite lots of negatives there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise" while the upside momentum remains strong.  So must continue to assume further gains as the market "melts up".  Further resistance above the recent 3326 high is seen at the top of the bull channel from early Dec (cur at 3348/52).  Support is seen at the 2 week bull t-line (cur at 3297/02) and the base of the channel from early Dec (cur at 3269/74).  

January 11, 2020

Eur/$ down from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 (and test of the ceiling of the bear channel from July) and as with the A$ (and other markets as well), seen at a "pivotal" time for the longer term (9-12 months or more).  In the big picture, a major bottom/bottoming is seen raising some potential for an upside acceleration ahead.  However the inability to do so over the next week or 2 would start to increase the likelihood of a further period of an extended wide ranging/bottoming back toward that Oct low at 1.0880 first (and thus the "pivotal" time).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1150/65 and again that 1.1225/40 area.  Further support is just below the recent 1.1085 low at 1.1035/60 area (bull t-line and 50% retracement from the Oct 1st low at 1.0880, break/close below would also increase the likelihood of that more extended period of a longer term bottoming).       

$/yen has indeed bounced from the Jan 8th low, testing that support in that 107.60/75 area (base of bull channels from Aug and Nov and 38% from the Aug spike low at 104.40) and right in back into that longer term 109.70/85 resistance area (multiple highs, bear t-line from 2018, etc.).  Seen part of the previously discussed, extended period of wide ranging and good sized swings in both directions.  With the market back near the ceiling, looking to trade from the short side and though there is no confirmation so far, even a break above would likely be limited/short-lived.  Further resistance above 109.70/85 is seen at 110.00/15.  Nearby support is seen at 108.55/75 and again that 107.60/75 area.   

US 10yr yield choppy in recent ranges, still seen forming that long discussed rising wedge-like pattern from Sept and with eventual gains above the Nov peak at 1.97% still favored.  Nearby term however, there remains that scope for a further period of ranging and even a retest of the important 1.67/69% support first (base of wedge, Dec 3rd low, 50% from the Sept low at 1.43%, see in red on daily chart below).  Support before there is seen at 1.76/77%. 

US$/DXY has indeed continued higher from the Dec 31st low at 96.35 and test of the discussed "pivotal" falling support line from Oct.  In the big picture, the view over the last few months of a major top (9-12 months) at the Oct 99.65 remains, but the timing of more significant rolling over/declines (versus extended period of topping) remains a question.  Further resistance is just above the recent 97.50/65 high at 97.90/05 (both the bear t-line and 50% retracement from the Oct 99.65) and with a break/close above arguing that more extended period of longer term topping.  Nearby support is seen at 97.00/15 and again that 96.20/35 area.    

Huge reversal lower in oil from the Jan 8th spike high at $65.62 (false break of the ceiling of the bull channel from Aug) and currently trying to stabilize near recent lows at the base of the bull channel from Oct (cur at $58.80/95).  No doubt the market is short term oversold and along with the tendency for markets to "back fill" such rapid moves, argues an approaching bottom (for at least a week or 2) and potentially good sized bounce.  At this point there is no confirmation of such a low while often takes some some for the momentum to wash out after such large moves, and in turn raises scope for further (but likely limited) downside.  Further, long term support is just below at $57.90/15 (50% from the Aug low at $50.55) and would be an "ideal" area to form such a low (see in red on daily chart below).  Resistance is seen at the multi-day bear t-line (cur at $59.50/75) and $61.10/35.   

In cable, no change in the big picture view over the last few weeks of an extended period of wide ranging (month or 2) as the market consolidates after the rally from the Sept 3rd low at 1.1955. So strategically would stay with the approach of trading with a shorter term bias, looking fade extremes, key support/resistance areas in an attempt to capture some of these good sized swings.  Nearby support is seen at 1.3000/25 (recent low, base of bull channel from Oct) and the bull t-line from Nov (cur just below at 1.2935/50).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the Dec high at 1.3150/65) and 1.2380/95 (Dec 31st high, 62% from the 1.3515 peak). 

$/cad up from the Dec 31st low 1.2950, but no confirmation of a larger bottom argues a rolling over with declines back to 1.2935/50 (also falling support line form Feb 2019/base of bear channel from Sept) and potentially below.  Note too the "failure" to build on the recent break above the bull t-line from July (cur at 1.3065/80) adds to that view (closing back above would argue a more important low is in place).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3000/15 (50% from the 1.2950 low). 

Gold down sharply from that Jan 8th spike high at $1611, with as much as a month or 2 of wide ranging/chopping (as part of a more major topping) favored ahead.  Note too that markets often "back-fill" these rapid swings.  So generally would have an approach of fading the extremes (and then being aggressive with stops) as the swings in both directions are likely to be large.  Nearby support is seen at the recent $1540/43 low and $1525/28 (50% retracement and base of bull channel from the Nov $1145 low).  Nearby resistance is seen at $1563/66 and $1574/77 (50% from the $1611 high). 

A$ bouncing from its recent low, testing support at .6850 (50% from the Oct low at .6670) and with at least some further gains favored ahead.  Note too there is potential for a more significant upside/acceleration higher as the market is seen in a big picture "pivotal" time (see email from Friday), so a good area to be long against.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6930/45 (50% from the Dec high at .7035) and that .7030/45 peak (also the ceiling of the bear channel from Dec 2018).  Nearby support is seen in the whole .6825/50 area (also the base of the bull channel from early Nov).  

In the S&P 500 another new, all time high.  Those previously discussed, big picture negatives remain (overbought, final upleg from Oct, etc.) but with still no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example), must continue to assume further gains (remains a market to just let run).  Further resistance above the recent 3283 high is seen at the rising t-line from early Nov (cur at 3290/95).  Support is seen at the bull t-line from Dec (cur at 3238/43), 3207/12 and the bullish trendline from Oct (cur at 3180/85).  

January 04, 2020

Eur/$ no change in the bigger picture, as a more major bottom (9-12 months) is still seen in place at the Oct low at 1.0880.  Nearer term however, seen at a "pivotal" time as the inability to resume the bigger picture upmove/accelerate higher over the next week or 2 would start to increase the likelihood of a more extended period of ranging/longer term bottoming first.  Currently the market is testing bigger picture support at the broken ceiling of that long term falling wedge from Sept 2018 (cur at 1.1100/25, also the base of bull channel from late Nov) and "ideal" area to resume the upside.  Further support below there is see at the bull t-line from Oct low (cur at 1.1020/35).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1180/95 and 1.1240/55 (recent high, ceiling of the bull channel from late Nov).   

$/yen has finally rolled over as that view of a top for at least a few months in the 109.75/00 area continues playing out.  Note however, that the bigger picture action ahead may be more an extended period of broad chopping lower (versus a more, longer term tumble) and in general will be looking to sell into bounces (versus chasing declines).  Lots of support is seen in that whole 107.50/75 area (38% retracement and base of bull channel from the Aug low at 104.40, base of channel from Oct).  Nearby resistance is seen at 108.45/70. 

US$/DXY finding at least some support near its recent low and test of the falling support line from Oct (cur at 96.20/35), and as that longer term view over the last few months of a major top (9-12 months) remains.  Nearer term seen as "pivotal" support, as remaining above keeps open scope for a more extended period of this broader ranging/longer term topping (before more major downside is seen), while break/close below may trigger a downside acceleration more directly ahead.  Nearby resistance is seen at 97.05/20 and 97.80/95 (Dec 23rd high, bear t-line from the Oct peak).  

US 10yr yield sharply lower after breaking below the base of the rising wedge pattern from early Dec.  As been discussing, such a break would target declines back to that key 1.67/69% support area (Dec 3rd low, 50% and bull t-line from Sept low at 1.43%) and within that much larger rising wedge pattern since Sept (see in "ideal" scenario in red on daily chart below).  Support is before there is seen at 1.78/79%), resistance is now at that broken bull t-line from early Dec (cur at 1.88/89%).  

Oil pushing just above that Sept peak to a recent high at $64.05.  Though no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise", the market is getting overbought after the last few months of gains, is within lots of resistance at $64.00/25 (also ceiling of the bull channels from Aug and Nov) and while within that even larger period of wide ranging from Apr.  So a tough time to "chase" from here (if not already positioned) and instead would be looking for signs of a near term topping to sell (poor upside momentum, 5 waves down on short term chart, etc.).  Nearby support is seen at $62.25/50 and the base of the bull channel from Nov (cur at $61.10/35).   

$/cad consolidating from the Dec 31st low and test of the longer term, falling support line from last Feb (cur at 1.2925/50).  With the market near term oversold, may provide another week or 2 of consolidating but would be seen as a correction and with a resumption of the decline after (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at resistance is seen at 1.3005/20 and the broken bull t-line from July (cur at 1.3055/70).  

In cable, no change in the big picture as the view over the last few weeks of an extended period of wide ranging/chopping from the Dec 13th high at 1.3515 (as the market corrects the upmove from the Sept low at 1.1955) continues to play out.  So in general would stay with the approach of fading (not chasing) extremes, key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops to try to capture some of these nearer term swings (have to take what the market gives).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3055/70 and again that whole 1.2900/50 area (Dec low, base of bull channel from Oct, etc.).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3190/05 and the 1.3290/05 (recent high, 62% from the 1.3515 peak).   

Gold has indeed continued to surge after the Dec 23rd break above the bear t-line from Sept (then at $1480, see daily chart below, said would argue a more important low is in place and with gains above that $1557 peak).  Though short term overbought (and scope for a few days/week of correcting), a resumption of the upside would be favored after.  Nearby support is seen at $1535/38 and the multi-week bull t-line (cur at $1520/23). 

A$ down the Dec 31st high at .7030, seen as a correction (wave iv in the rally from the Dec 10th low at .6800 and with a resumption of the gains after (within wave v).  Though no confirmation of such a short term low so far, further downside would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Also don't forget that the market finally broke above the ceiling of that very long discussed falling wedge/reversal pattern from Oct 2018 and argues that a more major low (9-12 months) is in place.  Further support below the recent .6930 low is seen at .6880/05 (the broken ceiling of that long term wedge and the base of the bull channel from late Nov).  Nearby resistance is seen at .6985/00 (recent high, ceiling of the bull channels from Oct and Nov). 

S&P 500 near recent and all time highs at 3258.  An overbought market after the surge from Oct and within the final upleg from that low (wave v) argues an increasing risk of a top for at least a month (or more).  However as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term peak "pattern-wise' (5 waves down for example) while the market can remain overbought for extended periods of time, so must in turn assume further gains (not trying to "top pick").  Further resistance above that recent 3258 high is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from early Dec (cur at 3280/85), support is seen at the base (cur at 3220/25, break/close below would increase the likelihood of such a top). 

December 28, 2019

Eur/$ again testing that long discussed major resistance at 1.1180/05 (ceiling of long term falling wedge from Sept 2018, Oct and Dec highs) and as that view of a major bottom/bottoming (9-12 months) continues to play out.  Short term with still no upside resolution (so far), there remains that scope for a continued period of this broader ranging before more major gains are seen.  Nearby support is seen at 1.1130/45 and the bull t-line from Nov (cur at 1.1070/85).

 

$/yen little moved near recent highs and resistance at 109.65/80 (also the bear t-line from Nov 2018).  Seen as a top/topping (for at least a few months) with the poor upside momentum and overbought market after the rally from the Aug low at 104.40 adding to that view.  Short term however, there is no confirmation of such a peak, but any further upside would likely be limited before rolling over (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above 109.65/80 is seen at the rising t-line from Nov (cur at 110.10/25).  Support is seen at the bull t-line from Oct (cur at 108.75/90).

 

US 10yr yield continues to form that long discussed rising wedge-like pattern from the Sep low at 1.43% and with eventual gains above that Nov 1.97% peak still favored.  Nearer term however, the market is forming a smaller wedge-like pattern from Dec 3rd with a break/close its base/multi-week bull t-line (cur at 1.86/87%) arguing declines to base of the large wedge/bull t-line from Sept first (cur at 1.67/69%, also the Dec 3rd low, 50% from 1.43%, see in red on daily chart below).    

US$/DXY no change in the long held, big picture view of a major top (9-12 months) at the Oct high at 99.65.  Nearer term the market is again chopping near that longer term base of that long discussed rising wedge/reversal pattern from Sept 2018 (cur at 97.00/25) and with some scope (as the end of the year approaches) for a further period of this rangy/choppy trade before rolling over more significantly.  Further support below there is seen at 96.45/60 (Dec 12th low), resistance is seen at 97.70/85 (recent highs) and 98.10/35 (50% and bear t-line from the Oct peak at 99.65).

 

Oil near recent highs at $61.95 and after breaking just above that bear t-line from Apr.  Though a near term positive sign, the market is overbought after the surge from Nov (and longer), is forming a rising wedge-like/reversal pattern and testing resistance at the ceiling (cur at $61.95/15).  This in turn raises the risk of a bearish “false break” (reversing to close back below that trendline from Apr) and would argue a more important top (at least a month or 2).  Key support is seen at $60.90/15 (both that broken trendline and the base of the wedge/bull t-line from Nov).

 

Cable did indeed bounce from that Dec 23rd low after testing lots of bigger picture support at 1.2880/05 (38% from the Sept low at 1.1955, bull t-line from Nov, base of bull channel from Oct).  Though a bottom is seen in place for at least another week or 2, the action will likely broadly rangy and part of a larger period of wide ranging/correcting from the Dec 13th high at 1.3515.  So generally would have an approach of trading with a shorter term bias, looking to fade (not chase) extremes, key support/resistance areas.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3115/30 (recent high, ceiling of the bear channel from the Dec peak) and 1.3200/15 (50% from the 1.3515 high).  Support is seen at 1.3030/45 and again that 1.2880/05 area.

 

$/cad remains under pressure, building on the downside from the Nov high at 1.3335.  Though no confirmation of a bottom (so far) and approach of the end of the year (often volatile time), the market is oversold and testing support at 1.3050/65 (bull t-line from July, month long falling support).  Seen as a “potential” (reflects the lower confidence) area to form low for at least a few weeks.  Note too that the upmove from the Oct low to that Nov peak occurred in 5 waves (upside not “complete”) and argues eventual gains above the 1.3315.  So from a risk/reward standpoint, a good area to be long (despite lower confidence) as new lows below 1.3025/40 would abort (limited risk).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3100/15 and the month long bear t-line (cur at 1.3155/70).   

 

Gold accelerating higher after breaking above that bear t-line from Sept.  As been discussing, such a break would argue that the more important low was already in place and target gains above that Sept peak at $1557 after.  Short term there is some risk for a week or 2 of consolidating before resuming that larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below).  Lots of nearby resistance is seen at $1515/20 (recent high, ceiling of the month long bull channel, ceiling of the bear channel and 62% from the Sept peak).  Nearby support is seen at $1498/01 and the base of the bull channel (cur at $1484/87).   

A$ higher after finally breaking above the ceiling of that very long discussed falling wedge pattern from Oct 2018 and argues that the major low (9-12 months) is finally in place. Near term however, this does not necessarily mean a further, big picture surge directly ahead as these more major reversals often take an extended period to form as other correlated/inversely correlated markets complete their larger reversal patterns.  Lots of resistance is seen in the while .6990/15 area (recent high, ceiling of the bull channels from Nov and Oct.  Nearby support is seen at .6925/40 (broken Oct high) and that broken ceiling of the long term wedge (cur at .6895/10).

S&P 500 near recent (and all time highs) at 3248 and as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a short term top “pattern-wise” (therefore bias remains higher, larger tops generally begin with smaller ones).  Note too on a very short term basis, unlikely to see much selling over the next week (versus in the new year due to tax implications).  In the bigger picture however, the risk of an approaching top for at least a month or 2 is rising rapidly given an overbought market and seen within the final upleg in the rally from the Oct low (wave v).  Further resistance above the recent 3248 high is seen at the ceiling of the multi-week bull channel (cur at 3263/63), support is seen at the base (cur at 3215/15).   

December 21, 2019

Eur/$ has indeed continued lower from the Dec 13th temp high at 1.1200 and after again testing the ceiling of the very long discussed falling wedge/bear t-line from Sept 2018.  Though an eventual major bottom (9-12 months) and upside resolution is favored, must continue to assume more wide ranging within the pattern ahead.  So would generally stay with that long held strategy of trading with the shorter term bias, fading (not chasing) the extremes, key support/resistance areas (have to take what the market gives).  Nearby support is seen at 1.1055/70 and the bull t-line from the Oct low (cur at 1.1010/25).  Resistance is seen at 1.1105/20 and again that major 1.1175/00 area. 

$/yen near recent highs, testing lots of longer term resistance at 109.75/00 (recent/early Dec highs, bear t-line from Nov 2018, etc.) and seen as an important topping (at least a few months).  Still no confirmation of such a peak, but any near term upside would likely be limited/short-lived (also remember the the end of the year/thinning markets).  Nearby support is seen at 109.05/20 and the bull t-line from early Oct (cur at 108.60/75). 

US 10yr yield ranging higher in the rising wedge-like pattern from Dec 3rd, and within the larger pattern from Sept.  As often discussed, trying to position/forecast the short term moves when near the middle of these periods of ranging is notoriously difficult (higher risk), so will generally stay with that approach of fading the extremes (where the confidence is higher).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.96/97% (ceiling of the smaller wedge, Nov high) and the ceiling of the larger wedge/rising t-line from Sept (cur at 2.02/03%).  Support is see at the base of the smaller wedge (cur at 1.85/86%) and 1.67/69% (base of the larger wedge/bull t-line from Sept, Dec low).  

US$/DXY building on the upside from the Dec 12th low and after breaking back above that bull t-line/base of the rising wedge from Sept 2018 ( bullish "false break").  In the big picture, seen part of that more major top/topping (9-12 months or more) and with some scope for gains back to the Nov 13th high at 98.50 (and even temporarily above) as part of the process (and before rolling over more significantly).  Nearby resistance is seen at 97.75/90) and the bear t-line from Oct (cur at 98.10/25).  Key support is again at that base of the long term wedge (cur at 96.95/20). 

Oil has turned lower from the Dec 19th high at $61.38 after finally reaching that long held target and "ideal" area to form an important top (ceiling of the large triangle from Apr).  Though there is scope for another few days of ranging/topping (as the end of the year approaches), a rolling over and more significant declines would be favored after (see in red on daily chart below).  Support is seen at $59.80/05, $58.00/25 (50% from the Nov 29th low at $55.04) and the base of the bull channel from Oct (cur at $56.40/55). 

Cable has continued sharply lower from the Dec 13th, post election high at 1.3515 and as the big picture view of a top for at least a month or 2 remains.  Note however that the action is likely to be an extended period of broad ranging (and good swings in both direction) and versus the start of a major tumble to new lows.  Currently the market is near its recent lows, is short term oversold and suggests an approaching bottom for at least a week or 2.  Though no confirmation of such a near term low so far, the downside momentum is slowing while approaching lots of support and in turn argues that any further, near term downside would likely be limited.  Nearby support is seen in the whole 1.2910/60 area (38% from the Sept low at 1.1955, trendlines of the Oct triangle) and the base of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 1.2840/55).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3125/40.    

In the $/cad, the downside from the Nov peak is seen as a correction with a resumption of the gains above that 1.3335 high after.  That 5 wave rally from Oct (upside not "complete") and falling wedge-like decline (reversal pattern) add to this view.  Currently the market is firmer from the Dec 18th low at 1.3105, taking a run at the bear t-line from early Dec/ceiling of the wedge and with a resumption of this bigger picture gains favored ahead.  Further resistance above the ceiling (cur at 1.3140/55) is seen at 1.3215/30 and that 1.3320/35 high (also the bear t-line from Sept).  Support is seen at 1.3090/05 (recent low, base of the wedge).

 

A$ firming back toward recent highs and that longer, major resistance at the ceiling of the bear channel from Oct 2018 (cur at .6920/45, also the Oct/recent highs).  Though that upside resolution is favored (would confirm a bottom, 9-12 months), there does remain scope for a further period of this broad ranging first.  So would generally stay with that very long held, big picture approach of fading the extremes of this long term pattern (which has been quite successful for some time) until such a resolution (or confirmation of that more major bottom) occurs.  Nearby support is seen at the multi-week bull t-line (cur at .6835/50).   

Gold near recent highs approaching lots of resistance at $1485/90 (bear t-line from Sept, Dec 12th high, ceiling of bull channel from Nov), with a topping/rolling over and declines below the Nov low at $1446 favored.  However a break/close above this resistance area would argue a more important low is in place.  So from a risk/reward standpoint, a good area to be/stay short against.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from late Nov (cur at $1464/657 and the base of the bull channel from the Nov low (cur at $1454/57). 

S&P 500 at another new high and still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (argues further gains).  But must be aware of the numerous big picture negatives (overbought market, final upleg from Oct, etc.) suggesting a rising risk in that upside.  Further resistance above the recent 3224/29 high is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from early Dec (cur at 3248/53).  Nearby support is seen at the base (cur at 3192/97), 3150/55 and the bull t-line from Oct (cur at 3120/25). 

December 14, 2019

Eur/$ quickly reversing lower from the recent spike to 1.1200 and test of the ceiling of the very long discussed falling wedge from Sept 2018.  Wedges are viewed as reversal patterns suggesting an eventual major bottom (9-12 months) and upside resolution.  Near term however that quick reversal lower (sign of underlying weakness), false break of the Oct high at 1.1180 and approach of the end of the year argue a more extended period of this wide ranging first (at least until an upside resolution of this wedge/bias is to be short against).  Major resistance remains in that 1.1175/00 area, support is seen at 1.1090/05 (both the the bull trendline and 50% retracement from the late Nov low at 1.0980). 

$/yen near recent highs, testing resistance at 109.60/75 (bear t-line from Nov 2018 and the Dec 2nd peak).  Seen part of a larger topping (for at least a few months), but with near term scope for more ranging and even further (but likely limited highs) before rolling over more significantly (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above 109.60/75 is seen at the rising t-line since Sept (cur at 110.20/35), support is seen at 109.00/15 and 108.40/55 (recent lows). 

US 10yr yield remains choppy in that long discussed rising wedge-like pattern since the Sept low at 1.43% and with eventual gains back to the Nov 7th high at 1.97% and even above.  Near term however, more of this broad ranging and even a retest of the base/bull t-line from Sept is favored first (cur at 1.67/69%, also the base of the bear channel from the Nov high).  So with the market currently near the middle of the pattern, remains a market to trade with a shorter term base looking to fade extremes and then being aggressive with stops to try to capture some of these nearer term swings(have to take what the market gives).  Nearby support is seen at 1.77/78%, resistance is seen at the ceiling the bear channel from Nov (cur at 1.91/92%). 

US$/DXY trying to consolidate after finally breaking below that long discussed major support in the 97.15/40 area (base of rising wedge from Sept 2018, Oct/Nov lows).  No doubt a bearish sign for both the longer term (wedges are viewed as reversal patterns) as well as the nearer term (downside pattern from the Nov high at 98.50 not "complete", technicals bearish/sell mode on the daily macd) and in turn argues further downside.  However, must consider the market is approaching the end of the year/thinning markets while eur/$ did not resolve higher from its long term wedge (inversely correlated market, see above) and in turn raises the risk of a bullish false break (close back above this key 97.15/40 area would put this view on hold).  

Oil higher again, building on the gains from the Oct 3rd low at $51.03 and nearing that long held, bigger picture target (and "ideal" area to form a multi-month top) at the bear t-line from Apr/ceiling of that large triangle (cur at $61.50/00, see email from last week).  Though still no confirmation of even a shorter term peak, will be looking for increasing signs of that potentially more important top on its approach (poor upside momentum, 5 waves down on shorter term chart, etc.).  Resistance before there is seen at $60.40/65 (recent high, ceiling of the bull channel from Oct).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from late Nov (cur at $58.90/15) and $57.50/75.    

Cable surging to another new high at 1.3515 (following the election), building on the rally from the Sept 3rd low at 1.1955.  As discussed, big picture negatives argue an increasing risk of an approaching top for at least a few months and include an overbought market after that surge from Sept, within the final upleg from that low (wave 5) and technicals that have not confirmed the recent gains (see bearish divergence on the daily macd).  However as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (and larger tops generally begin with smaller ones).  But would expect any further upside to be "difficult"/rangy as that longer term upside momentum slows/potential multi-month top approaches.  Resistance is seen at 1.3450/65 (earlier broken 62% retracement from the Apr 2018 high at 1.4375), 1.3510/25 (recent peak) and the rising t-line from Sept 2018 (cur at 1.3360/85).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3270/85 (50% from the the Dec 12th low at 1.3050) and the bull t-line from Oct (cur at 1.3030/45). 

$/cad near recent lows down from the Nov 20th high, seen as a correction with a resumption of the gains above that 1.3315 high and to that long held bear t-line from Dec (cur at 1.3435/60) after.  Note that the rally from the Oct low at 1.3040 to that 1.3315 high occurred in v waves (upside not "complete").  At this point there is no confirmation of such a low but any further near term weakness would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3135/50, resistance is seen at the multi-week bear t-line (cur at 1.3200/15) and 1.3265/80.  

Gold remains in that bull channel from the Nov low at $1446, seen as a correction (wave 4 in the decline from the Oct 3rd high at $1520) and with new lows after.  Though there is scope for more ranging short term, further near term upside would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Key resistance is seen at $1486/89 (recent high, ceiling of the channel and the bear t-line from the Sept high), with a break/close above arguing that a more important bottom (at least a few months) is in place.  Note too that a break below $1446 (if it does indeed occur) may be limited/short lived as that very long discussed "ideal" area to form a more major bottom is down into the $1440 area (see email from Thurs).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the bull channel from Nov (cur at $1454/57).   

A$ quickly turning back after a test of that longer term .6925/40 resistance area (both the ceiling of the falling wedge from Oct 2018 and the Oct 31st high).  Though an eventual major bottom (9-12 months) and upside resolution is favored, there is some scope for a continued period of this longer term bottoming first.  Note too that quick reversal lower/bearish false break are seen as near term negatives and adds to the potential of this more extended period of wide ranging.  Nearby support is seen at the broken ceiling of the bear channel from Oct (cur at .6840/55) and the bull t-line from late Nov (cur at .6795/10). 

S&P 500 at another new all time high and as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (argues further gains).  However, lots of big picture negatives suggest an increasing risk of an approaching top for at least a few weeks/month and include an overbought market after the surge from Oct, within the the final upleg from that Oct 3rd low at 2856 (wave v) and technicals that have not confirmed the recent gains (see bearish divergence on the daily macd).  Resistance is seen at the recent 3180/85 high and the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 3204/09).  Support is seen at the bull t-line from early Dec (cur at 3140/45) and 3070/75 (both the base of the bull channel from Oct and the broken rising t-line from Jan 2018). 

December 07, 2019

Eur/$ continues to chop near the middle of that very long discussed, falling wedge from Oct 2018, seen as a reversal pattern and with an eventual upside resolution.  Note however, that the 5 wave decline from the Oct 21st high at 1.1180 to the Nov 29th low argues more of this broad ranging and even further lows below the 1.0980 low first (downside not "complete").  So will be looking for signs a near term topping as a signal to sell/resell against that longer term ceiling of the wedge.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1100/15 (recent high, 50% from the 1.1180 peak) and the whole 1.1160/85 area (ceiling of the long term falling wedge and the Oct 21st peak).  Nearby support is seen at 1.1035/50, that 1.0970/85 low and 1.0870/85 (Oct 1st low).

$/yen is heavy, down from the Dec 2nd high at 109.75 and as the view of a top/topping for at least a few months remains in place.  Note too that technicals remain bearish (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd).  Currently the market is taking a run at the bull t-line from Aug with the break potentially triggering a downside acceleration.  However with the end of the year approaching, the confidence in such a downside acceleration directly ahead is somewhat lower than normal, and versus another few weeks of ranging first (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at 108.30/45 and 107.55/70 (38% retracement from the Aug low at 104.40).  Nearby resistance is now at the broken t-line from Aug (cur at 108.90/05) and the 109.60/75 high.

US 10yr yield continues range higher in that rising wedge-like pattern from Sept and argues eventual gains to the Nov 7th high at 1.97% and even the ceiling just above.  Nearer term however, there is scope for another few weeks of ranging before those new highs are seen (see in red on daily chart below).  So generally would stay with that approach of trading with a shorter term bias, fading these key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops in an attempt to capture some of these shorter term swings.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.86/88% (50% and ceiling of bear channel from the Nov 7th high at 1.97%).  Support is seen at 1.79/80%, 1.69/70% (Dec 3rd low) and 1.64/66% (both the bull t-line from Sept and the base of the bear channel from the Nov high). 

In the US$/DXY, no change in the longer term as an important top is still seen at the Oct 1st high at 99.65 (6-9 months or more) with the 5 wave decline from that peak to the Nov 1st low at 97.10 (downside not "complete") and 3 wave move from the Nov 1st low (a-b-c, a correction) adding to that view.  As been discussing, an extended period of ranging is favored first and with scope for more of this chop (as the end of the year approaches) before more significant declines are seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 97.90/05 and again that 98.45/60 area (Nov highs, 50% from the 99.65 peak).  Support remains in that major 97.00/25 area (Nov low, base of that longer term rising wedge from Sept 2018).

Oil at another new high, building on the gains from the Oct low at $51.03 and nearing that long discussed target/"ideal" area to form a more important top (few months) at the bear t-line/ceiling of large triangle from Apr (cur at $61.50/75).  However from a position standpoint, not a market to "chase" as the action since Oct (though higher) has been rangy/choppy, and with some risk for a few weeks of correcting along the way upward.  Nearby resistance is seen at $58.90/05 (recent high, ceiling of the bull channel from Oct).  Nearby support is seen at $57.50/75 and the base of that channel (cur at $55.40/65).    

$/cad did accelerate lower after breaking below that bull t-line from the Oct, seen as a correction and with an eventual resumption of the gains to that long held bear t-line from Dec after (cur at 1.3445/70).  Note too the 5 wave rally from the Oct low adds to this bigger picture view (upside not "complete").  Near term however, there is scope for another few weeks of ranging/consoildating (as the market corrects the month long rally) and before resuming the larger upmove (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3265/80) and again that 1.3325/40 area (recent highs, bear t-line from Sept).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3215/30 and 1.3145/60 (recent low, 62% from the Oct low at 1.3040). 

Cable did indeed finally break above the Oct 31st high at 1.3015 and with the upside pattern from the Nov 28th low at 1.2770 not "complete" (cur within wave iii) argues further gains.  However as been warning, further big picture upside on such a break may be limited (versus the start of a more major, new upleg).  In the bigger picture, the market is seen within the final upleg in the rally from the Sept low at 1.1955 (wave 5), is overbought after the last few months of gains and within that longer term resistance at 1.3165/10 (both the bearish trendline from July 2014 and a 50% retracement from the Apr 2018 high at 1.4375).  Nearby support is now at that broken 1.3000/15 Oct high.  

Gold continues to range from the Nov 12th low at $1446, is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the decline from the Oct 25th high at $1518) and with new lows after (within wave 5).  However, the magnitude of further downside may be limited/part of a more major bottoming as that long held "ideal" area to form a more important low is just below, down into the $1440 area (38% retracement and base of the bull channel from the Apr low at $1266).  Note too this fits the bigger picture view in the US$/DXY of a more important topping (inversely correlated markets).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the multi-week bull channel (cur at $1250/53).  Nearby resistance is seen at $1467/70 and $1283/86 (recent high, ceiling of the multi-week bull channel).  

A$ firm near recent highs, testing resistance at .6860/75 (62% and ceiling of the bear channel from early Nov) and nearing the ceiling of that very long long discussed falling wedge pattern from Oct 2018.  With still no confirmation of a more major bottom, must assuming more downside ranging in that long term pattern ahead.  This in turn argues that any further near term upside would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at .6795/10, .6740/55 (late Nov low, base of the bear channel) and .6660/75 (Oct 1st low).   

S&P near recent highs and taking a run at the Nov 27th all time high at 3154.  Still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example) argues further gains.  However an overbought market after the surge from the Oct low at 2856 and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd), raises the risk that further gains may be limited (as a top for at least a month approaches) and versus the start of a more major, new upleg.  Further resistance above that 3154 high is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 3173/78), support is seen at 3119/24 and the whole 3060/70 area (recent low, broken rising t-line from Jan 2018 and the base of the bull channel from Oct). 

December 01, 2019

Eur/$ pushing just below the mid Nov low, reaching 1.0980 on Nov 29th.  Though no confirmation of even a shorter term bottom "pattern-wise", tough to get too bearish from here as the market is getting short term oversold after the decline from the Oct 11th high at 1.1180.  Also the market is near the middle of that very long discussed, falling wedge pattern from Aug 2018, where action tends to be choppy/sloppy and not a market to "chase" (in general would have/stay with that approach of fading the extremes).  Further support below the recent 1.0980 low is seen at the base of the multi-week bear channel (cur at 1.0915/30), 1.0870/85 (Oct 1st low) and the base of that longer term falling wedge/falling support line from Aug 2018 (cur at 1.0825/40).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at 1.1055/70) and that major 1.1180/15 area (Oct high, ceiling of the long term wedge).   

$/yen near its recent high at 109.65 and a level not seen since last May.  Still no confirmation of even a short term peak but lots of negatives argue a rising risk of a top for at least a month and that further, near term gains would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  These negatives include an overbought market after the rally from the Aug low at 104.40, technicals that have not confirmed the recent highs (see bearish divergence on the daily macd) and poor upside momentum.  Further resistance is just above that recent 109.65 high at the the rising t-line from Oct (cur at 110.00/15).  Nearby support is seen at 109.00/15 and that long mentioned bull t-line from Aug (cur at 108.50/65, break/close below would argue the top is in place). 

US 10yr yield remains choppy near the middle of the 1.43%/1.97% range that been in place since Sept, and as that longer term view since late Aug of an extended period of wide ranging (few months) continues to play out.  Still seen forming a large rising wedge-like pattern over that time and with more wide swings within the pattern favored ahead.  So generally would stay with the approach of fading the extremes and then being aggressive with stops (have to take what the market gives).  Further support is just below the Nov 21st, 1.72% low at 1.69/70% (50% from the Sept low at 1.43%) and the bull t-line from that low/base of the pattern (cur at 1.61/62%).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.84/85% and the 1.97/99% area (Nov high, rising t-line from Sept/ceiling of the wedge). 

US$/DXY has remained firm, up from the Nov 1st low at 97.10.  In the big picture the gains over the last month are seen as a correction/part of a more major topping (for 6-9 months or more) and with an eventual rolling over after.  Note too the 5 wave decline from the Oct high argues that the larger downside is not "complete".  Currently, the market is taking a run at resistance at 98.45/60 (Nov high, 50% from the Oct high at 99.65).  Though a break above would be a short term positive, further gains would likely be limited and still part of this more major topping (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at the bull trendline from the Nov 1st low (cur at 98.00/15), 97.60/75 and that major 97.00/25 area (Nov low, baser of the longer term rising wedge/reversal pattern from Sept 2018). 

Oil did indeed rollover from the Nov 22nd high at $58.71 (62% retracement from the Sept high at $63.33 and then the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct).  In the bigger picture, near the middle of that larger period of wide ranging/triangle since last Apr and with eventual gains to the ceiling/bear t-line from that peak (cur at $61.60/85).  Must remember however, that the action when near the middle of these patterns tends to be sloppy, so there's scope for a further period of this chopping before resuming that upmove (in general have an approach of fading extremes, key support/resistance areas).  Lots of support is seen at $54.90/05 (recent low, 50% from the Oct low at $51.03, base of the bull channel from Oct), $53.70/95 and the longer term bull t-line from Dec (cur at $51.60/85).  Nearby resistance is seen at $56.60/85 and again that $58.70/95 area. 

$/cad choppy from the Nov 20th high at 1.3315, up from the Oct 29th low at 1.3040 and with eventual gains to the ceiling of that longer term bear channel from Dec (cur at 1.3450/75) still favored.  Short term however, the market is overbought while seen within the final upleg in the rally from the Oct low (wave v), and argues risk for a few weeks of correcting along the way higher.  Though still no confirmation, a break/close below the bull trendline from the Oct low (cur at 1.3250/65) would increase the likelihood of such a pullback (see in red on daily chart below).  Further support below there is seen at 1.3180/95. Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3315/30 (recent high, bear t-line from Sept).   

Cable remains in that tight range since the Oct 21st high, still capped by that whole 1.2950/1.3015 resistance area (also the ceiling of the bear channel from Aug 2018).  Seen "pivotal" for the bigger picture as remaining below keeps open scope for a few months of downside and even a retest (and temp break of the Sept low at 1.1955) as part of a major bottoming (6-9 months or more).  A break above however, would confirm that such low is already in place (5 waves up from the Sept low).  Nearby support is seen at 1.2825/40 and 1.2760/75 (base of multi-week range).   

Gold has continued to range from the Nov 12th low at $1446 as the view of a few weeks of consolidating (wave 4 in the decline from the Oct 25th high at $1518) and with eventual new lows after (within wave 5) is still playing out (see in red on daily chart below).  But be warned, further such downside may be limited as that long held "ideal" area to form a more important bottom is just below at $1440/45 (see email from Friday).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the multi-week bull channel.  Nearby resistance is seen at $1466/69 and $1478/81 (recent high, top of multi-week bull channel). 

A$ pushing to a slight new low and building on the downside from the Oct 31st high at .6930.  In the big picture, near the middle of the long discussed falling wedge from Oct 2018, seen as reversal pattern and with an eventual upside resolution of that ceiling (cur at .6900/25).  However as been discussing for some time, must assume more of this wide ranging first and would generally stay with the approach of fading the extremes.  Support is seen at .6700/15, .6660/75 (multiple spike lows since Aug) and the base of the pattern (cur at .66030).  Nearby resistance is seen at .6770/85 and .6820/35.

S&P 500 near recent highs and test of resistance at 3154/59 (ceiling of the bull channel from Oct).  Though still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example, so must assume further upside), the market is overbought after the surge from Oct while technicals have not confirmed the recent highs (see bearish divergence on the daily macd).  This in turn raises the risk that further upside may be limited as a potential of a top for at least a month is rising.  Nearby support is seen at the broken, rising t-line from last Apr (cur at 3134/39), 3088/93 and that broken rising t-line from Jan 2018 (cur at 3060/65).   

November 23, 2019

Eur/$ has turned lower from the Nov 21st high at 1.1095, testing the ceiling of the month long bear channel and near the middle of that very long discussed falling wedge from Aug 2018.  Though wedges are seen as a reversal patterns suggesting an eventual upside resolution of this long term pattern, a continued period of this ranging is favored first.  So remains a market to trade with a shorter term bias, looking to fade extremes, key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops to limit risks (have to take what the market gives).  Nearby support is seen at 1.0990/05 (Nov 14th low, bull t-line from Oct), the base of the month long bear channel (cur at 1.0940/55) and that Oct 1st low at 1.0875/90.  Nearby resistance remains at the ceiling of the month long bear channel (cur at 1.0980/95) and 1.1180/15 (Oct 11th high and the ceiling of the long term wedge). 

$/yen little moved near recent lows, seen part of a more major topping (for at least a few months).  Bearish technicals (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd) and overbought market after the rally from Aug are seen as big picture negatives.  Note however, that there is some scope for another few weeks of ranging/topping before rolling over more significantly (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at the bull trendline from Aug (cur at 108.25/40, also recent lows) with a break/close below arguing that rolling over.  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the high (cur at 108.80/95), 109.45/60 (Nov high) and the rising t-line from Oct (cur at 109.85/00). 

US 10yr yield down from the Nov 7th slight new high at 1.97% and as the bigger picture view from late Aug of an extended period of wide ranging continues to play out.  Currently the market is trying to stabilize near recent 1.72% lows after the last few weeks of sharp downside but with no confirmation of a bottom, further downside is favored.  However, lots of support is just below at 1.68/70% (late Oct low, 50% retracement from the Sept low at 1.43%) and a "potential" area to form a bottom for at least a week or 2.  Must also remember that this action/potential short term low is within that multi-month period of ranging where the action tends to be sloppy, and strategy must be adjusted to reflect that risk (versus looking to fade at the extremes).  Further support below there is seen at the bull t-line from the Sept low (cur at 1.60/61%), resistance is seen at the multi-week bear t-line (cur at 1.77/78%) and 1.85/86%. 

US$/DXY up from the Nov 1st low at 97.10 and in the big picture is seen as a correction/part of a more major topping and with an eventual resumption of the larger declines after.  Note that the decline from the Oct 1st high occurred in 5 waves (downside not "complete"), while the market remains in that very long discussed rising wedge/reversal pattern since Sept 2018).  Near term however, there is scope for more ranging first (been warning that deep bounces are common at more important turning points).  Nearby resitsance is seen at 98.30/45 (recent high, 50% from the Oct 1st peak at 99.65) and 98.65/80.  Support is seen at the bull t-line from Nov 1st (cur at 97.65/80) and the 96.85/10 area (Nov 1st low, base of that large rising wedge from Sept 2018). 

Oil building on the upside from the Oct 3rd low at $51.03 and with the long held bigger picture target at the bear t-line from Apr/ceiling of large triangle (cur at $61.85/10) still favored.  Near term however, the market is getting overbought and has failed to build on the recent, slight new high (sign of underlying weakness) and suggests a rising risk for a few weeks/month of consolidating along the way higher.  Though no confirmation of such a peak (so far), the market is testing resistance at $58.70/95 (62% retracement from the Sept 16th high at $63.33, ceiling of month long bull channel) an "ideal" area to form such a top.  Nearby support is seen at $56.65/90 and the base of that month long channel (cur at $55.00/25). 

$/cad up from the Oct 29th low at 1.3040 with further gains to the ceiling of the longer term, bear channel from last Dec (cur at 1.3450/75) still favored.  That 3 wave decline from the Sept high at 1.3385 to the 1.3040 low (A-B-C, a correction) and bullish technlcals (see buy mode on the daily macd) remain as positives.  Near term however, the market is short term overbought and argues an increasing risk for a few weeks of consolidating/correcting along the way (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from Sept (cur at 1.3315/30) and that Sept high at 1.3380/95 just above.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the Oct low (cur at 1.3215/30). 

Cable again stalling from that longer term "pivotal" resistance in the whole 1.2915/1.3015 area (ceiling of the bear channel from 2018).  In the bigger picture seen "pivotal" for at least the next few months as remaining below keeps open scope for a more extended period of downside ranging all the way back to the Sept low at 1.1955 (as part of a major bottoming).  A break/close above however would argue that the more major bottom is already in place (5 waves up from Sept).  At this point, seen as a "toss up" but from a risk/reward standpoint, remains a good area to be short against (given the limited relative risk).  Nearby support is seen at 1.2815/30, 1.2760/75 (base of month long range) and that broken bear t-line from Apr 2018 (cur at 1.2640/55).

Gold continues to consolidate from the Nov 12th low at $1446, seen as a correction (wave 4 in the decline from the Oct 25th high at $1518) and with new lows after (within wave 5).  Short term there does remain some scope for another week or ranging and even a retest of the recent $1478/81 high before rolling over (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at $1659/62, that Nov 12th low at $1446 and the long discussed "ideal" area to form a more major bottom just below at $1440/45 (38% from the Apr low at $1266, falling support line from Oct). 

A$ is choppy from the Nov 14th low at .6770 and with no confirmation of even a short term bottom "pattern-wise", argues further downside.  Note however that the magnitude is s question as the market is near the middle of that very long discussed falling wedge from, Oct 2018 and with more wide ranging in that pattern favored ahead (generally looking to fade the extremes).  Further support below that recent .6760/75 low is seen at .6665/80 (multiple low since Aug) and the base of that long term wedge just below.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6830/45 (recent high, multi-week bear t-line) and the ceiling of that long term falling wedge (cur at .6915/40). 

S&P 500 has weakened from recent highs and test of lots of resistance at 3125/40 (ceiling of the bull channel from Oct and the rising t-line from Oct).  Seen as an "ideal" area to form a peak for at least a few weeks/month given an overbought market after the surge from the Oct 3rd low at 2856 and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd).  Though no confirmation of such a top so far, further gains would likely be limited as such a peak approaches (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at 3088/93, the broken rising t-line from Apr (cur at 3015/20) and the base of the bull channel from early Oct (cur at 3015/20). 

November 16, 2019

Eur/$ bouncing from the Nov 14th low at 1.0990 and with the market short term oversold after the last few weeks of declines, there is scope for at least some further gains.  However, tough to get too bullish for the near term as the market is trading near the middle of that very long discussed, fallings wedge from Sept 2018.  Though seen as a reversal pattern with an eventual upside resolution, must continue to "respect" that pattern and assume more of these broad swings ahead (for the bigger picture would generally have an approach of fading the extremes).  Note too that the market is currently near the middle of the pattern where the action is often "sloppy" and must be reflected in the shorter term view/strategy (higher risk).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the bear channel from Oct (cur at 1.1100/15) and that whole 1.1180/30 area (Oct highs, ceiling of that large wedge).  Support is seen at 1.0975/90 (recent low), 1.0875/90 (Oct 1st low) and the base of the wedge (cur at 1.0860/85). 

$/yen finding some support near recent lows and test of the bull t-line from Aug/base of the rising wedge (cur at 108.25/40).  In the big picture, bearish technicals (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd) and rising wedge-like/reversal pattern argues an eventual rolling over and downside resolution.  Near term however, there does remain scope for another few days/week of this topping first (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 108.85/00 (50% from the Nov 7th peak at 109.50) and again that 109.50/65 area (also the month long rising t-line). 

US 10yr yield down from the Nov 7th high at 1.97% and after only limited upside above the Sept 13th high at 1.91%.  Though a bigger picture bearish sign (failure, underlying weakness) there is no confirmation of a peak "pattern-wise" and raises scope for gains back to that 1.97% (and even above) before a more significant top is seen (see in red on daily chart below, also a similar view as $/yen above).  Nearby support is seen at 1.79/80% (recent low, base of bull channel from Oct), 1.67/68% and the base of the bull channel from Sept (cur at 1.58/59%).  Further resistance is just above that recent 1.97% high is seen at 2.02/06% (ceilings of both of the channels and would be an "ideal" area to form a more important top). 

US$/DXY up from the Oct 18th low at 97.15 and as been discussing is seen as a correction/part of a more major topping, with an eventual rolling over after.  Currently the market is stalling from its recent high, test of resistance at 98.40/55 (50% from the Oct high at 99.65) and a "potential" area to form a more important peak.  But note I use the term "potential" as there is no confirmation while there remains scope for a more extended period of this wide chopping/topping before finally rolling over more significantly.  Nearby support is seen at 97.65/80 and again that major 96.85/15 area (recent lows, bull t-line/base of rising wedge from Sept 2018, break/close below would argue that more major rolling over). 

Oil pushing to another new high, building on the gains from the Oct 3rd low at $51.03 and with eventual gains to the bear t-line from Apr/ceiling of the large triangle (cur at $61.90/15) still favored.  However, the upside momentum is stalling and suggests a rising risk of a top for a few weeks/month along the way higher.  Though no confirmation of such a peak (5 waves down on short term chart for example), a further stalling/limited gains ahead would increase the likelihood.  Nearby resistance is seen at the rising t-line from late Oct (cur at $58.70/95) and the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct (cur at $59.50/75).  Nearby support is seen at the week long bull t-line (cur at $56.35/60) and $55.50/75 (base of the channel from Oct, recent low).

$/cad lower from its recent high at 1.3270, seen top/topping for at least a few weeks and with eventual declines back to that Jul low at 1.3015 (and even below) after.  Though no confirmation of such a top so far, any near term upside would likely be limited/part of this topping (see in red on daily chart below).  But in the bigger picture, must also remember that the market is still within that long discussed period of wide ranging since Dec and with the market near the middle, the nearer term action may remain choppy/sloppy.  Nearby support is seen at the multi-week bull t-line (cur at 1.3195/10) with a break/close below arguing that the near term top is in place.  Resistance remains at 1.3270/85 (recent high, ceiling of bear channel from Sept).  

Cable remains in a tight range since the Oct 21st high at 1.3015 (then also the ceiling of the bear channel from Aug 2018).  At a "pivotal" time for at least the next few months as remaining below keeps open scope for a more extended period of downside ranging and even a retest (and temp break) of the Sept 3rd low at 1.1955 as part of a more major bottoming.  A break above however would confirm that a more major bottom (at least another 3-6 months) is already in place (5 waves up from the Sept low).  Key resistance remains in that whole 1.2960/15 area (ceiling of that longer term bear channel, Oct 21st high), support is seen at 1.2755/70 (recent lows) and the broken, bear t-line from Apr 2018 (cur at1.2655/70). 

A$ trying to find support near its recent .6770, down from the Oct 21st high at .6930 and again after turning lower the ceiling of the very long discussed falling over the last year.  Wedges are viewed as reversal patterns suggesting an eventual upside resolution, but there is scope for more ranging and even a retest (and temp) break of the Oct low at .6670 first.  Currently with the market near the middle of the range, not a lot of confidence in either direction for the short term (versus then at the extremes, looking to fade).  Nearby resistance is seen at the multi-week bear t-line (cur at .6870/85) and again that important ceiling of the long term falling wedge (cur at .6930/55).  Nearby support is seen at .6760/75 (recent low, 62% from .6670). 

Gold choppy from the Nov 12th low at $1446, seen as a correction (wave 4 in the decline from the Oct 28th high at $1518) and with new lows after (within wave 5).  But be warned, further downside below $1446 may be limited as that long discussed "ideal" area to form a more major bottom is just below at $1440/45 (both a 38% retracement from the Apr low at $1266 and the base of the bull channel from last Jan, see email from Friday).  Nearby resistance is seen at $1473/76 and that broken bull t-line from late Sept (cur at $1485/88).   

S&P 500 ending the week at all time highs and with still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example) argues further gains.  However with the market overbought after the surge from the Oct low at 2856, risk of top for at least a month is rising.  Nearby resistance is seen at 3120/30 (multi-week rising t-line and the longer term rising t-line from late Apr).  Nearby support is seen at the multi-week bull t-line (cur at 3085/88) and again that longer term, broken rising t-line from Jan 2018 (cur at 3050/65).    

November 09, 2019

Eur/$ building on the downside from the Oct 21st high at 1.1180 as the market continues its extended period of chopping in that very long discussed, falling wedge from Sept 2018.  Wedges are viewed as reversal patterns and suggests an eventual, major bottoming and upside resolution of that ceiling (cur at 1.1200/25).  However, there does remain scope for more of this broad chopping within the pattern (and potentially even a retest and slight break of that Oct 1st low at 1.0880) as part of this process first.  A final word...as often discussed, the shorter term action when near the middle of these extended periods of chopping tends to be choppy/sloppy and therefore lower confidence when forecasting/positioning (versus when at the extremes, looking to fade).  Further support is just below the recent 1.1015 low at 1.0980/95 (62% from the 1.0880 low).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1060/75 and that 1.1165/80 high.     

$/yen at recent highs, again testing that rising t-line from Sept/ceiling of rising wedge (cur at 109.50/65).  Wedges are generally viewed as reversal patterns suggesting declines to the base/bull t-line from Aug (cur at 108.10/25) and eventually below.  Note too that technicals have not confirmed the recent gains (see bearish divergence on the daily macd).  Though no confirmation of such a top so far, still seen as a good risk/reward area to be short given the limited risk (stop on break/close clearly above that ceiling).  Nearby support is seen at 108.60/75.  

US 10yr yield near recent highs after breaking just above the Sept 13th peak at 1.91%.  With the upside pattern from the Oct 31st low at 1.68% not "complete" (cur within wave iii), further gains are favored.  Note too that there is some potential for more significant gains as the market bounces after the longer term tumble from the Nov 2018 high at 3.25%.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.97/98% (recent high, ceiling of the bull channel from early Oct) and the ceiling of the larger bull channel from Sept (cur at 2.03/04%).  Nearby support is seen at the week long bull  t-line (cur at 1.80/81%) and the base of the bull channel from early Oct (cur at 1.73/74%). 

US$/DXY has continued higher from the the Oct low at 97.15 (and test of the longer term base of the rising wedge from Sept 2018), accelerating on the break above the bear t-line from the Oct high at 99.65.  In the big picture, seen as a correction/part of a longer term topping but as been discussing, deep bounces (poss double top) are common at more important turning points.  So strategically, a tough time to chase from here and instead would be looking for signs of a near term topping to short.  Nearby resistance is seen at 98.40/55 (50% from the 99.65 peak), support is seen at 97.85/00 and again that major 96.80/15 area.     

Oil choppy near recent highs, up from the Oct 3rd low at $51.03 and with eventual gains to the bear t-line from Apr/ceiling of the large triangle (cur at $62.00/25) favored.  However, the market is short term overbought and near the middle of this multi-month range (action generally sloppy when near the middle of these extended ranges), and in turn raises the risk for at least a few few weeks of consolidating along the way higher (so not seen as a good risk/reward in chasing here).  Further resistance above the recent $57.84 high is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from early Oct (cur at $58.40/65), support is seen at $55.80/05 (recent low) and the base of the channel (cur at $54.60/85). 

$/cad building on the upside from the Oct 29th low at 1.3040 and breaking just above the 0ct 30th high at 1.3210.  Though a near term positive sign, the magnitude of further gains is a question as the market remains within that much larger period of wide ranging (with a downward bias) since last Dec (so would only be trading from the long side if using an aggressive, trailing stop).  Further resistance above the recent 1.3235 high is seen at 1.3295/10, 1.3380/95 (Sept 3rd high) and the bear t-line from Dec (cur at 1.3460/75).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the late Oct low (cur at 1.3145/60). 

Cable has continued to chop from that Oct 21st high at 1.3015 (then also the ceiling of the bear channel from 2018).  Still seen as "pivotal" resistance for the longer term as remaining below keeps open scope for another month (or more) of downside ranging all the way back to the Sept 3rd low at 1.1955 (and even temporarily below) as part of a more major bottoming.  However, a break above that ceiling (and the Oct 21st high) would argue a more major bottom is already in place (5 waves up from the early Sept low).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the multi-week bear channel (cur at 1.2755/70) and the broken bear t-line from Apr 2018 (cur at 1.2670/85). 

Gold building on the downside, accelerating lower after breaking below that bull t-line from late Sept and pushing just below that Oct 1st low at $1459.  With the downside pattern from at least the Oct 25th high at $1518 not "complete" (cur within weave iii), further downside is favored.  However, would expect further weakness to become more difficult/rangy as the market approaches longer term support at $1440/45 (38% from the Apr low at $1266) and potential area to form a more important low.  Nearby resistance is seen at the broken bull t-line from late Sept (cur at $1480/83) and the bear t-line from the Sept high (cur at $1512/15).  

A$ has continued lower from that Oct 31st high and test of the ceiling of the long discussed falling wedge from Oct 2018 (cur at .6930/55), and with at least some further downside favored.  But the magnitude is a question (though some scope for declines all the way back to the Oct 2nd low at .6670 as part of a longer term bottoming) as falling wedges are seen as reversal patterns and suggests an eventual upside resolution of that ceiling after (and would confirm a more major bottom).  Nearby resistance is seen at the week long bear t-line (cur at .6900/15), support is seen at .6715/30 (base of the bull channel, bull t-line and 38% retracement from the Oct low at .6670).  

S&P 500 near recent and all time highs at 3098, and still no confirmation of even a short term peak "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example).  However, the market is overbought after the surge from the Oct low at 2856 and suggests an increasing risk of a top for at least a month.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the Oct low (cur at 3065/75) and that long term, broken rising t-line from Jan 2018 (cur just below at 3050/65, break/close back below would be a bearish "false break").  Further resistance above the recent 3098 high is seen at the rising t-line from Oct/ceiling of a poss rising wedge/reversal pattern (cur at 3110/20).