August 28, 2008

[2015/1615] $ ended the session on a relatively quiet note as trading is winding down ahead of the long weekend in the US.  Though a bit firmer, the buck remains within recent ranges and is seen as in the process of topping, and not likely near the start of a major new upleg (though there is scope for further slight new highs versus at least some currencies).  Of note was cable which did indeed reach a slight new low (new $ high) before bouncing.  Oil was also volatile, initially   up over $2/bbl before reversing to end down over $2/bbl, and despite no change in the expected path for the hurricane Gustav, while gold was up $5/oz despite the tumble in oil and rally in the $ (gold seen as bottomed), and US stocks were also higher.....GOOD DAY.....

[1905/1505] US 10yr note futures continue the steady grind higher from the late July low at 113/27, and within the larger period of upward ranging since the June low at 111/00.  Though further gains toward the ceiling of the 2 month bullish channel (currently at 118/07) and possibly above is favored, the relatively poor upside momentum since the recent break above the July high at 116/02 is a concern.  So for now, would continue to use an aggressive stop on a break below the month long bullish channel (currently at 116/00) as it would suggest further declines toward the bullish trendline since June (currently at 114/16) and potentially below.  Nearby resistance is seen at yesterday's 117/03 high.  

[1750/1350] Dow Jones Industrials have pushed back into the 11700 area that has provided resistance numerous times over the last month (also a 38% retracement from the May high at 13137).  With scope for more ranging ahead, looks like a good risk/reward short for the bullish trendline since July (currently at 11400).  Note however, that a clear break/acceleration above would be a sign to stop (and even reverse) and suggest further gains back to the Aug 11th high at 11867, 11200 and possibly 12125 (38% retracement from the Oct high at 14198 (so would stop and reverse on a clear break above).  Nearby support is seen at 11500.  

[1640/1240] Eur/$ is consolidating from the Monday low at 1.4575 and is seen as bottoming with at least a week or 2 of correcting higher after.  However on a shorter term basis, the specific pattern of this bottoming remains in question.  May be forming an inverted head and shoulder (right shoulder at 1.4635, neckline at 1.4905) or possibly a falling wedge (would suggest a retest and even slight break of the 1.4575 low).  For the bigger picture would be using this recent weakness as a chance to start building long with at least a 400-500 tick bounce higher after.  If shorter term, would be be trading with a shorter term bias as more of this choppy/basing is favored and fading these key support/resistance levels.  

[1525/1125] More chopping with a downward bias for cable as the market is trying to bottom after the last month of sharp declines.  Note too that the slowing downside momentum and lack of new $ highs versus other currencies (divergences) adds weight to the view of a larger bottoming in cable.  However, there are still no signs that the final bottom is in place (clear break/acceleration above the week long bullish trendline, 5 waves up on shorter term charts, etc.) and leaving open scope for more chopping/ranging.  For now, would fade the extremes of the shorter term range but with the expectation of an eventual upside resolution.  Nearby support is seen at the 2 week falling support line (currently at 1.8270/85), nearby resistance is seen at 1.8320.  

[1410/1010] No change in the bigger picture view in oil as the market is seen as bottoming with at least another few weeks (and potentially more) of upward correcting ahead.  On a nearer term basis, there is some potential for a sharp move ahead and would no doubt have a substantial impact on the $.  Currently, oil is chopping after the overnight break above the bearish trendline since July (currently near $108.00, and now support), but capped by the bearish trendline since mid July (currently at $120.50/121.00).  A break above there would likely trigger a further upside acceleration (likely trigger the final $ top), but a break back below the broken bearish trendline since July would suggest further basing first (and would likely lead to further $ highs/but topping).  Note too that approach of the long weekend in the US would likely lead to an exaggeration of these shorter term moves.  The real "wild card" is the hurricane Gustav, which is likely to set the near term direction for oil.   

[1255/0855] Only a slight new high in the $ index before chopping from the Aug 26th high at 77.60, a sign that the upside momentum is starting to slow.  Note too that the market is overbought after the sharp gains since July, and suggests at least a few weeks of consolidating lower may be ahead.  On a short term basis however, there are no signs "pattern-wise" that a top of that magnitude is in place (at least so far), and leaves open scope for more ranging back toward the 77.60 high and even slightly above first (would be seen as a chance to build shorts).  Nearby resistance is seen at 77.00, while support is seen as the week long bullish trendline (currently at 76.65), with a clear break below there potentially triggering a further downside acceleration (and would increase the likelihood that a more important top is in place and be a sign to short).  Note too, keep an eye on oil as a sharp move would likely have a direct impact on the near term $ direction (as mentioned below).  

[1210/0810] $ under a bit of pressure overnight, even breaking to new highs versus some currencies and part of the larger $ topping.  In general, still favor at least another week or 2 of downward correcting (and potentially more) ahead.  On a short term basis however, the downside momentum has been poor, cable still appears to need further new lows/basing, the long weekend in the US is quickly approaching, and suggests that continued near term $ weakness may be "difficult".  So in turn, would leery of chasing the market lower for the short term.  Also, still view oil as the potential "wild card" with the hurricane Gustav a driver-especially ahead of the long weekend.  Generally still view energy as bottoming but the question is if it accelerates higher from here or has further bottoming first, which will be driven by the storm.  Note that oil is up well over $1/bbl overnight, gold is up over $10/oz (seen as bottomed) and US stock futures are higher. 

[1145/0745] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 27, 2008

[2055/1655]  $ ended the session slightly firmer from opening levels as the market remained range bound near recent highs versus most currencies.  Note however, that cable fell to a new low with the upside break of the 4 month pennant in eur/gbp also weighing.  Overall view the $ as in the process of topping with scope for more ranging and even further slight new highs versus at least some currencies.  Would maintain the strategy of trading/fading shorter term ranges but with the expectation of a more important $ top ahead.  Oil was up over $2/bbl while gold was a bit firm as both continued to bottom and would watch both closely as a further run-up could be the trigger for the more important $ top.  US stocks were up about .75% and also remain within ranges.....GOOD DAY.....

[2010/1610] Eur/yen is again bouncing from slight new lows as the 2 week slowing downside momentum/bottoming process continues.  With no signs that the final bottom is in place and longer term support just below yesterday's 159.90 low at 159.60/75 (50% from the Aug low at 149.30, markets have a tendency to reach this key area one way or another), there is scope for another retest (and slight break) of the recent lows.  If shorter term, would now sell against the multi-week bearish trendline (currently at 141.45/60), and a good risk/reward (limited risk), but lowering the stops much more aggressively on an approach (and especially break) of the 159.90 low.  Support before there is seen at 160.85/00).  

[1855/1455] Kiwi is ranging since the Aug 12th low at .6820.  Currently seen as part of a larger bottoming, and with eventual gains back to the Aug 21st high at .7215 and above after.  More recently, the market is up from yesterday's low and with the gains occurring in 5 waves, further gains are favored ahead.  For now, would be long but initially using a wide stop on a close below the multi-week bullish trendline (currently just above .6900) as there is risk for more basing before a resumption of the longer term upmove.  Support before there is seen at .6970 (earlier low, 50% from .6895) while nearby resistance is seen at .7045. 

[1740/1340] $/yen remains volatile on an intraday basis, continuing its wide, multi-week chopping.  For now, would continue to fade the extremes (roughly 108.25/110.25), and being quick to trails stops aggressively.  In the bigger picture, this rangy trade is seen as part of a larger topping and with an eventual downside resolution of this larger range.  Note there is some risk for an upside break with gains above 111.65 (Aug 15th high), but further upside would likely be limited and short-lived (versus the start of a major new upleg).  Resistance above there is seen at the rising resistance line since June (currently at 111.00), while support before the base of the range is seen at the bullish trendline since July (currently at 108.70 and bounced from there earlier today).   

[1625/1225] Cable has reversed sharply lower from the earlier high at 1.8485, taking out yesterday's low at 1.8325 (to levels not seen in over 2 years), but right into support at the nearly 2 week falling support line (currently 1.8275/90).  Though this area may hold temporarily, there are no signs that a more significant low in in place, so would only consider buying for this potential countertrend bounce only if very short term (likely max upside 100 ticks).  Note too in the bigger picture, further upside in eur/gbp (see comment just below) would add weight to further downside in cable (or at least help to cap the upside).  Support below there is at the multi-day falling support line (currently at 1.8235/50) while nearby resistance is seen at 1.8325 and 1.8385. 

[1520/1120] Eur/gbp is accelerating higher after the breaking above key resistance at the ceiling of the pennant/triangle that has been forming since April (currently at .7985/95).  They patterns generally resolve sharply and suggests further gains toward .8095 (April high) and even above ahead.  For now, would be long but use a clear break below the multi-week bullish trendline (currently at .7950) as a sign to stop.  Note that this trendline is rising sharply and will stop the position on the inability to continue accelerating higher relatively soon (would raise the risk in the view of the up break of the triangle).  Nearby resistance is seen at .8030/40.   

[1405/1005] Bigger picture bullish view in crude oil remains in place as the market is seen as bottoming from the Aug 15th low at $111.34, with at least another week or 2 of upward ranging ahead.  Note too the buy signal on the daily macd (see bottom of daily chart below) also suggesting further gains ahead.  Nearer term however, the action of crude could have a direct impact on the $ as there is some risk for more basing first (in oil) and in turn would help support the $ (potential for more topping in the buck).  Currently, crude oil is testing resistance at the bearish trendline since July (currently at $119.60/120.10).  Though an eventual upside break is favored, it could hold near term and lead to further basing (would lead to more topping and possibly further slight new highs in the $), but a break above would likely trigger a further upside acceleration.  Resistance in oil above the trendline is seen at $122.00 (Aug 21st high) while nearby support is seen at $118.00.  

[1255/0855] Eur/$ has bounced from yesterday's low at 1.4570 and with the market oversold after the sharp declines from mid July, risk is rising for at least another week or 2 of correcting higher ahead.  Note however, that scope remains for another day or 2 of bottoming and even further slight new lows first, as the downside momentum continues to slow.  Also, the market may be forming a falling wedge pattern over the last few weeks weeks and adds weight to the idea of more bottoming over the near term.  For now for the near term, would be short against the week long bearish trendline but lower it much more aggressively on approach (and even slight break) of yesterday's 1.4570 low.  Support before there is seen at 1.4675.  If more medium term, would wait for slight new lows or on better signs that a more important bottom is indeed in place before buying.  

[1210/0810] $ under pressure overnight after failing to build on yesterday's gains and new highs versus most currencies.  In the bigger picture, view the $ as overbought (after the tumble since mid July)with the recent new highs seen as part of a larger topping, and not the start of a major new upleg.  Note too that higher oil (and natgas) also playing a part (both seen as bottoming also, and higher overnight) with the storm Gustav likely to to have at least some short term impact.  US stock futures are a bit lower but still rangebound.  For the $, would continue to trade shorter term ranges to keep risks at a minimum and until better signs that a more important top is indeed in place.  Today would be looking for nearby strength to short in to, but quickly lower stops with the market.

[1135/0735] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 26, 2008

[2055/1655] $ ended the session lower from opening levels as the buck failed to build on the sharp jump overnight (to new highs versus most currencies).  However, the very short term upside pattern is not "complete" suggesting another near term push upward to new highs.  But in the bigger picture, the $ remains overbought so further near term new highs may be part of a larger topping (and not the start of a major new upleg).  Note too that oil and gold also reversed higher (after selling off overnight) as the inverse correlation with the $ held and are seen as in the process of forming important bottoms.  US stocks were mixed near opening levels and remain rangebound.....GOOD DAY.....

[2025/1625] Kiwi is bouncing from the earlier low at .6895, potentially completing the 3 wave fall from the Aug 21st high at .7215 (a-b-c, see numbering on hourly chart below), and suggesting a resumption of the gains back to the .7215 high and even above ahead.  Note too that kiwi did not reach a new low (below the Aug 12th low at .6895) as most other currencies versus the $ did, also a positive sign.  For now, would be long but stop on a close below the earlier .6895 low as it would suggest further wide ranging and potentially a break below the .6820 low.  Nearby resistance is seen at the multi-day bearish trendline (currently at .7000) and .7055.

[1910/1510] Gold is ranging since last week's high at $845.00 and is seen as a correction with eventual new highs after.  Currently, the market is bouncing from the earlier test of key support at $812.00 (both a 50% retracement and the bullish trendline from the Aug 15th low at $777.70), likely completing that correction.  For now, would use any near term pullback as a chance to buy.  Initially stop on a clear break of the $812.00 support area but note that this would not change the bigger picture bullish view, just suggest more ranging/deeper retracement first (and would be looking to rebuy at lower levels).  Nearby support is seen at $824.00 while nearby resistance is seen at $836.00 (earlier high).  

[1755/1355] No change in the bigger picture view on $/cad as trade from the Aug 12th high at 1.0725 is seen as a large correction (wave 4 in the rally from the May low at .9820, see numbering on daily chart below) and with eventual new highs above 1.0725 and above after (within wave 5).  On a near term basis however, there are still no signs that this multi-week period of consolidating is complete, leaving open scope for more chopping and even further weakness below the earlier 1.0415 low.  For now, would continue to trade shorter term ranges with a downward bias but with the expectation of a bigger picture chance to rebuy for new highs ahead.  Support below 1.0415 is seen as the key 1.0300/25 area (broken Apr/June highs) while nearby resistance is seen at 1.0560 (earlier high) and the multi-week bearish trendline (currently at 1.0610/20). 

[1640/1240] $ index has pushed above the Aug 18th high at 77.40, but is having problems building on those gains (at least so far), while the market remains overbought in the bigger picture (see earlier sent email).  However on a short term basis, the upside pattern is not complete (currently within wave 4 in the rally from the Aug 21st low at 76.05, see number on hourly chart below), and with at least some eventual gains above 77.60 (within wave 5) favored.  For now for the near term, would be long above the week long bullish trendline (currently at 76.85), but will want to raise it to something much more aggressive on a move above 77.60 as further upside may be limited.  

[1525/1125] Oil has reversed sharply higher from the earlier test of support at the bullish trendline from the Aug 15th low at $111.34 (currently at $112.15/40), and as the intraday volatility continues.  As been mentioning, this type of activity is often a sign of a market that's in "transition" (bottoming in this case).  Note too that the market is oversold after the sharp declines since July, with scope for at least another week or 2 of gains and minimum $10-12/bbl bounce, and that oil has failed to make a new low despite the $ reaching new highs (bullish divergence).  For now, would continue to be long against the $111.34, but if very short term, can fade these extreme shorter term moves as there is scope for more of this intraday choppiness ahead.  Nearby resistance is seen at the bearish trendline since July (currently at $120.00) and last week's high at $122.00.    

[1410/1010] $/yen continues its choppy trade over the last few weeks and is still seen as part of a larger topping with an eventual downside resolution.  Note too that $/yen has failed to reach a new high while the $ has rallied to reach a new high versus most other currencies (bearish divergence) and adds weight to the view of a market that is topping.  For now, would use this recent near term strength as a chance to sell/resell but a clear break above the multi-day bearish trendline/recent high at 110.20/35 would put this view on hold (and be a sign to stop).  Nearby support is seen at the week long bullish trendline (currently at 109.40).  

[1255/0855] Eur/$ has pushed below last week's low at 1.4630 and to levels not seen since Feb.  On a short term basis, the market is currently finding some support at the earlier 1.4570, but the downside pattern from the Aug 21st high at 1.4905 is not "complete", and suggests a resumption of the near term decline after (currently within wave 4, with new lows within wave 5 after).  For now, would use this nearer term bounce as a chance to short.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.4630/40 (previous low, now resistance) and 1.4685/95, while a clear break above the multi-day bearish trendline just above would put this view on hold.  In the bigger picture, don't view the overnight push to new lows as the start of a major new downleg, but given the likelihood of at least some nearer term lows (and the slim chance that a more significant downleg is ahead), would have at least some shorts on (quickly trailing stops on further new lows).  

[1210/0810] Looks like the magnitude of the recent $ top was not as significant as believed, as the buck has pushed to new highs versus most currencies (except yen).  Generally don't view the overnight upside the start of a major new upleg, but with the nearer upside pattern not "complete" suggesting at least some further gains, bias will be to use near term pullbacks as a chance to buy (will also get long long just in case a more significant upside is underway).  Also note the buck is approaching longer term resistance versus a number of currencies including $/swiss (38% retracement from the Nov 2005 high at 1.3285 at 1.1085/00) and cable which is nearing 1.8310/20 (38% retracement from the June 2001 low at 1.3690 at 1.8305/20).  Oil is down nearly $2/bbl but still above its recent $111.34 low, gold is down over $2/oz and testing support at $810/12 (50% from Aug 15th low at $777.70), and stock futures were little changed.       

[1145/0745] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 25, 2008

[2200/1700] $ ended mixed from opening levels as the market partially reversed on early push lower, and as the extended period of ranging continued.  Seen as a period of topping and strategy remains to trade shorter term ranges with a downward bias.  Of note was cable which bounced from an overnight tumble to 1.8410, to close near unchanged from Friday's close at 1.8525 and $/yen which remained heavy (but off of session lows) in the tumble from the overnight test of the 110.25/40 resistance area.  Oil closed a bit firmer while gold was down $6/oz with both seen as bottoming, while stocks were down over 2% but within wide ranges.....GOOD DAY.....    

[2120/1620] Eur/yen is ranging since last week's low at 160.15, today turning down from a test of resistance at the bearish trendline from July 2007 (currently at 163.15/30).  With the market still oversold, there is scope for more ranging upward, and would use this near term pullback as a chance to buy for a retest of the 163.15/30 and even above.  Stop on a close below last week's low at 160.15, but further declines would be seen as part of a larger bottoming and would be looking for a place to rebuy (versus reversing to the short side on a break to new lows).  Support before there is seen 160.80/90 (50% retracement from the March low at 151.80) with the more important 159.65 after (50% retracement from the Aug 2007 low at 149.30).   

[2005/1505] Djia remains choppy, currently capped by the 11650/00 area (recent, numerous highs, bearish trendline & a 38% retracement from the May high at 13137) and supported by the bullish trendline since July (currently at 11300/25).  Though an eventual downside break is "preferred", potentially driven by a few weeks of correcting higher in oil, there is scope for further ranging/chopping first.  For now, would trade the shorter term ranges (fading the extremes).  Support below 11300/25 is seen at 11280 (last week's low) while nearby resistance is seen at 11500.  

[1750/1350] $/cad is chopping from Friday's low at 1.0420.  However, the recent upside is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the Aug 15th high at 1.0690, see numbering on the hourly chart below), and with eventual new lows below 1.0420 after.  Currently, the market is testing nearby resistance 1.0515/25 (overnight high, 38% of wave 3), but with no signs of a near term top, there is scope for a short-lived upside break toward 1.0540 and possibly 1.0575 first (and would be seen as a chance to short/reshort).  Resistance above there is seen at 1.0620 (bear t-line from the 1.0725 high).   

[1635/1235] Crude oil is chopping from last week's low at $111.34.  With the market oversold after the sharp declines since the July high at $147.27, there is scope for at least another week or 2 of upward ranging back to last week's high at $122.00, $125.00 (38% retracement from $147.27) and possibly above.  Note too that the daily macd has recently given a new buy signal (see bottom of daily chart below), while the market has been very volatile on in intraday basis in both directions (often a sign of a market that's in "transition").  For now, would be long above the $111.34 low (on a closing basis).  Support before there is seen at the bullish trendline since Feb (currently at $112.25) while nearby resistance is seen at $117.85.  Note too that even a break to new lows would likely part of a larger bottoming (not the start of a major new downleg), and would be looking to rebuy at lower levels.    

[1520/1120] Eur/gbp is chopping near key resistance at the ceiling of the potential pennant/triangle that has been forming since April (currently at .7990/00).  These are seen as continuation patterns that resolves sharply higher and suggests an eventual upside break back to the Apr high at .8095 and even above.  However, these patterns break down into 5 legs and raises potential for a final downleg back to the base (currently at .7800) first within that final leg (see numbering on daily chart below). For now, would be short against the ceiling but be aggressively lower stops and especially on approach of the base.  Nearby support is seen at .7945 and 7865, while resistance above the ceiling is seen at .8095 (Apr high).  

[1410/1010] $/yen continues its multi-week choppy trade, earlier testing resistance at 101.25/40 (previously broken bullish trendline since July, possible right shoulder of a multi-week bearish head and shoulders pattern, and a 50% retracement from the June 2007 high at 124.15).  Seen as part of a larger topping with eventual declines toward the neckline/trendline from mid June and below and for now, would be short.  Note however, there remains some risk for more topping and even a temporary break above the Aug 15th high at 111.65 first.  Though not currently favored, would not reverse to the long side on a break above but would be looking for a place to reshort.  Nearby support is seen at 109.50 and 109.15, while resistance before the 101.25/40 resistance area is seen at 109.90.  

[1255/0855] $ index is chopping from last week's high at 77.41 and after the sharp rally from the mid July low at 71.30.  However, relative to the length the upmove (a full month), this period of correcting (less a week) does not seem long enough and suggests at least another week (or more) of downward ranging ahead.  Note too that the daily macd is overbought and near a new sell signal (see bottom of chart below), suggesting further downwside (or least limited upside) ahead.  For now, would be short initially stopping above last week's high near 77.40 (but would be looking to resell at higher levels if taken out), but will want to lower stops aggressively with the market as trade ahead may stay chopping.  Nearby support is seen at 76.05 (last week's low) and 75.25/35 (both the multi-week bullish trendline and the previously broken rising trendline since May).  In the bigger picture with no signs of a longer term top (at least so far), may just be another week or 2 of downward ranging before a resumption of the long term gains.   

[1210/0810] $ flat to a bit lower overnight and after an initial attempt higher and even reaching slight new highs versus stg and a$ (lows).  However as been warning, there was scope for more topping and that slight new highs $ highs versus some currencies but would be seen as a bearish divergence (no confirmations), and would be part of this larger topping process.  At least another week or 2 (and possibly more) of downward correcting is still favored ahead with this recent $ strength seen as a chance to short/reshort.  If shorter term, would continue with the strategy of trade ranges with a downward bias as the choppiness is likely to remain (at least for now).  Note too that Friday's weakness in oil is also seen as part of a larger bottoming (up nearly $1 overnight) while near term weakness in gold (down a bit overnight) would be seen as a chance to buy.  Also, US stocks may be nearing an important top but there is some scope for further topping (and even slight new highs) over the near term (mixed overnight).  

[1135/0735] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 22, 2008

[2015/1615] $ broadly higher late in the session, taking back a significant portion of the last few days of losses and even pushing to a slight new high versus stg (new cable low).  However, these recent gains are not seen as the start of a major new $ upleg, with new highs (likely only versus some currencies) part of a larger topping and likely to be limited and short-lived.  For now will stick with the strategy of trading shorter term ranges with a downward bias (to keep risks at a minimum) as this rangy/choppy trade is likely to continue for the near term (this recent strength seen as a chance to short/reshort).   

[1910/1510] Crude oil has plunged from yesterday's multi-week high at $122.04, down over $5/bbl and taking back all of yesterday's sharp gains.  Still  view the market has completing (or nearly) a bottom for at least a week or 2 at the Aug 15th low at $111.34, with this recent rangy/volatile trade characteristic of a market that's trying to bottom.  Currently, the market has weakened into support at $115.40 (62% retracement from the $111.34).  Though there are no signs of a near term bottom (at least so far), may want to start building longs due to the volatility (can add on further weakness) but will at least have something on of the market reverses hard to the upside.  Support below there is seen at the multi-day bullish trendline (currently at $114.25) while nearby resistance is seen at $117.00.  

[1755/1355] Another low in a$/cad, continuing the sharp declines since the June high at .9840 and acceleration after the break below the bullish trendline since last Dec.  With the market oversold, risk is starting to rise for at least a few week of correcting higher and potentially more.  Note too that the market is quickly approaching key support in the .9045/60 area (both the bullish trendline from last Nov and a 50% retracement from the .8275).  Though this is a "logical" area to form a bottom, there are no signs of such a low (at least so far) while the downside momentum remains strong, so still a bit too risky to just jump in and buy here.  Instead, would wait for better signs of a bottom (false break of the .9045/60 support area, 5 waves up on shorter term charts, etc.) before buying.  Nearby resistance is seen at   and the decline over the last few months seen as a correction (wave 4 in the rally from , risk is starting to risk for at .9150).  In the bigger picture, see the fall since June as a large correction (wave 4 in the rally from the Aug 2007 low at .8275, see numbering on daily chart below) and would suggest eventual gains above .9840 (within wave 5).  

[1640/1240] Eur/$ is ranging higher from the Aug 19th low at 1.4630.  As been warning, the market is oversold after the last month of declines with at least a week or 2 of ranging higher ahead.  However, trade is likely to stay choppy and for now, will continue with the strategy of trading shorter term ranges with an upward bias (waiting for pullbacks to buy a aggressively trailing stops higher with the market).  Currently, the market is down from yesterday's high at 1.4905 and though there is potential for further slight new lows below 1.4780, it would be seen as a chance to buy/rebuy for a resumption of the gains back to the 1.4905 high and even above.  Note too that key support is just below there at 1.4750/70 (both the base of the multi-day bullish channel and a 50% retracement from the 1.4630 low), nearby resistance is seen at 1.4860.  

[1525/1125] Eur/gbp has firmed to test resistance at the 4 month bearish trendline (currently at .7985/95), and potentially the ceiling of the pennant/triangle that has been forming over that time.  These are generally seen as continuation patterns suggesting an eventual upside resolution, but scope remains for more ranging within the pattern first.  For now, would be short against the ceiling but quickly lower stops with the market as trade within these patterns is usually rangy/choppy.  Nearby support is seen at .7870 and the base of the pattern (currently at .7800) while a clear break above the ceiling would target the April high at .8095 and even above.  

[1410/1010] $/yen has bounced sharply from the support area just above 108.00, taking back all of yesterday's declines, but right into resistance at 110.00 (previously broken bullish trendline since July).  With a more important top potentially in place, this area should hold at least temporarily and would short here.  Note that even a break above would likely only suggest more topping and not the start of a major new upleg.  Resistance above there is seen at 111.65 (Aug 15th high), while nearby support is seen at 109.60 and 109.10.    

[1255/0855] $ index has bounced from yesterday's low at 76.05, and as mentioned below, is not seen as the start of a major new upleg, but part of a larger period of downward ranging.  Note too that the market has bounced into resistance at 76.70 (50% from Monday's high at 77.40, a retracement that tends to work well in this market).  Looks like a good area to short for a retest of yesterday's low at 76.05 and even below.  Initially use a stop above the multi-day bearish trendline (currently at 77.05) as there is scope for further topping nearby, but will want to lower it aggressively with the market (and especially on a break below 76.05) as the market is likely within a larger period of downward ranging/chopping.  Nearby support is seen at 76.35. 

[1210/0810] $ broadly higher overnight, taking back a chunk of the last few days weakness.  However, the recent gains are seen as part of a larger topping/ranging with an downward bias and not the start of a major new upleg.  Best in this type of market to trade ranges with a downward bias, waiting for deep bounces (such as these) to short and then quickly trailing stops lower.  Note too that most stops for model funds are momentum based, and given the slowing upside will no doubt begin to liquidate longs while those who missed sharp upmove since July are likely waiting for lower levels and thus leads to this rangy/choppy type of trading.  Also of note is oil and gold which are a bit softer after recent sharp gains but are seen as a correction with an eventual resumption of the longer term gains and US stocks which remain choppy with recent ranges.  

[1135/0735] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 21, 2008

[1910/1610] QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 etf) is trading near the middle of the $41.05/55.07 range that has contained the market since last Oct.  Note too that the market may be in the process of forming a large pennant/triangle and would suggest at least another few months (and potentially longer) of trading in tighter and tighter ranges ahead.  Also, despite little in the way "net" price change as these patterns form, good profits can often be made by fading the extremes (shorting an approach of the ceiling, currently at $49.00, and buying an approach of the base, currently at $44.00).  Additionally, an extended period of ranging in the techs would give broader market problems (financials and real estate, which are only a limited portion of the Nasdaq) time to "work out".  Nearby support is seen at $48.35/40 (earlier low).  

[1805/1505] Longer term bearish view on stg/yen remains in place as the late July high at 215.90 is seen as completing the correction from the March low at 192.70 (wave 4 in the fall from the July 2007 high at 251.15, see numbering on the daily chart below), and with eventual new lows below 192.70 (within wave 5) after.  Nearer term however, the market is oversold after the last few weeks of sharp declines, with risk rising for at least a week or 2 of correcting higher and 500 tock bounce.  Clearly not the time to be just hitting bids (if not already positioned and versus waiting for higher levels to short), and instead would be looking for better signs of a near term bottom to buy for this countertrend bounce (not there yet).  Nearby support is seen at 201.50/202.00 (earlier low, 62% retracement from the March low at 192.70) while nearby resistance is seen at 204.00 and 206.50.  

[1755/1355] Eur/yen did indeed weaken to yesterday's buy area at the base of the week long falling wedge (currently near 160.50), even spiking to a low at 160.10 before reversing back above (see as a bullish false break).  Note too that the decline is seen as the final leg in the week long falling wedge (wave 5, see numbering on hourly chart below), and suggests a sharp, upside resolution of the ceiling ahead (currently at 162.50).  Note there is some risk for more basing back toward the bottom of the pattern but would be seen as a chance to add.  

[1640/1240] $/cad has accelerated sharply lower within the fall from the Aug 12th high at 1.0725.  In the bigger picture, this recent weakness is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the rally from the May low at .9825, see numbering on daily chart below) and with eventual new highs above 1.0725 after (within wave 5).  However, the nearer term downside is not yet "complete", leaving open scope for further declines toward 1.0350 and potentially as far as the previously broken bearish trendline since last Jan (currently at 1.0300) first.  For now, would use a 75-85 tick bounce as a chance to short/add.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.0495 and 1.0525/35, while support is seen at 1.0435/45 (38% retracement from the July low at .9975).      

[1525/1125] Eur/$ continues to chop higher from the Aug 19th low at 1.4630, with at least another few days/week of gains toward 1.5165 (38% retracement from the July 15th high at 1.6035) and possibly above ahead.  For now, would use any near term pullback as a chance to buy as there is some chance for a further upside acceleration near term.  Nearby support is seen at the previously broken multi-day rising trendline (now resistance, currently at 1.4835/45) with 1.4760/70 after, while nearby resistance is seen at 1.4895 (earlier high).   

[1410/1010] USO oil etf has indeed bottomed (see yesterday's email), jumping higher after the recent break above the falling wedge/bottoming pattern that had been forming for over the last week.  With the market oversold after the sharp declines since July and a new buy signal on the daily macd (see bottom of daily chart below), there is scope for further gains toward $101.00, $104.50 (50% retracement from the $119.17 high) and even above.  However in the bigger picture, the gains may be part of a larger, multi-month period of wide ranging (and not the start of a new upleg to new highs).  For now, would be/stay long with any near term pullbacks seen as a chance to add.  Nearby support is seen at $94.25 and the broken ceiling of the wedge (currently at $91.25).  

[1255/0855] $/yen has indeed tumbled after the overnight break of key support at the bullish trendline since July, and is quickly approaching support at 107.95/05 (38% retracement from the July low at 103.80).  With the market near term oversold, this area may hold temporarily and provide a 70-80 tick bounce.  If very short term/aggressive, can buy against this support but will want to raise stops quickly with the market as this period of consolidating is likely to be short-lived (day or so) and before resuming the bigger picture downside.  Support below 107.95/05 is seen at 107.25 while nearby resistance is seen at as the 108.60/75.  

[1210/0810] $ broadly lower overnight, led by a tumble in $/yen after breaking yesterday's key support at month long bullish trendline (currently at 109.80/90).  Though the $ was also lower versus most other currencies, the upside has been much more limited, not even breaking below recent lows versus many (yen crosses sharply lower).  Still see the $ as topped with at least a week or 2 of correcting lower, but a little hesitant to just chase the market lower from here as it is nearing the bottom of its recent range (and the 108 support area in $/yen).  Also with downward ranging likely to continue, instead would look to trade ranges with a downward bias in not yet/still positioned.  Note too that oil is up another $3/bbl overnight and has likely completed a multi-week bottom (see yesterday's email), while gold is up nearly $20/oz, and US stock futures were heavy.        

[1140/0740] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 20, 2008

[2015/1615] US 10yr notes still firm in the steady upmove since late July low at 113/27 and after breaking above the July high at 116/02.  Still favor further gains toward the ceiling of the 2 month bullish channel (currently at 117/24) and possibly above, but the inability to really accelerate upward is a bit of a near term concern.  For now, would maintain the bullish bias and continue to use a break below the bullish trendline from late July (currently at 115/10) as a sign to stop.  Support before there is seen at 116.02 (previously broken high, now support), while nearby resistance is seen at 116/27 (earlier high).  

[1905/1505] In the $ index in the very short term, the market is ranging from yesterday's slight new high at 77.40.  Note that the fall from that high occurred in 5 waves, suggesting that the downside is not "complete" and with eventual declines below the earlier low at 76.65.  For now, would be short here but stopping on a break above the day long bearish trendline (currently at 77.25).  Note too that further downside below 76.65 may be limited so would lower it to something more aggressive on nearby weakness.  In the bigger picture, the market is very overbought at least a week or 2 of correcting lower due.  Though there are no signs that a top of that magnitude is in place (at least so far), but don't forget, more important tops begin with smaller ones.   

[1755/1355] Eur/yen remains heavy after the last few weeks of sharp declines.  However with the downside momentum, slowing risk is starting to rise for at least a week or 2 of correcting higher, while the market may be forming a falling wedge (bottoming pattern).  But these wedge patterns break down into 5 legs (see numbering on hourly chart below) and suggests a final test (and even slight break) of yesterday's low at 106.80 (also a 50% retracement from the March low at 151.80) first.  For now, would either buy an approach/slight break of the 160.80 low or on a break of the ceiling of the pattern (currently at 162.50).  Nearby support is seen at 161.40 (earlier low).  

[1640/1240] Eur/chf is chopping higher from yesterday's low at 1.6095.  Though there is scope for another day or 2 of ranging upward, the 5 wave fall from July 31st high at 1.6395 (see numbering on hourly chart below) suggests that this recent strength is a correction, and a resumption of the longer term declines after.  For the next few days can trade shorter term ranges with an upward bias (waiting for pullbacks to buy and quickly trailing stops), but with the expectation of a bigger picture chance to short for new lows ahead.  Key resistance is seen at 1.6235/45 (50% from the 1.6395 high) while nearby support is seen at 1.6140.  Note, the longer term also appears bearish with potential for declines all the way back to the March low at 1.5450 and even below (see recently sent email).   

[1525/1125] Longer term view in eur/gbp remains unchanged as trade from the Apr high at .8095 is seen as a large correction (wave 4 in the rally from the Jan 2007 low at .6535, see numbering on daily chart below) and suggesting eventual new highs after (within wave 5).  Since the April high, the market appears to be forming a pennant/triangle (current base at .7800, ceiling at .7990) and for now, would fade the extremes of the pattern but with the expectation of an eventual upside resolution.  Note that a break below the base of the pattern would not abort the bigger picture bullish view but would suggest further weakness toward .7770 (May low) and temporarily below first (and would be looking to rebuy at lower levels. 

[1410/1010] $/yen is drifting lower from Friday's high at 110.65, but right into support at the month long bullish trendline (currently at 109.55/65).  Though a more significant period of correcting lower is overdue, there remains scope for more topping back toward the 110.65 and even above first (though may be limited and short-lived).  For now, would be long above this trendline, with a clear break below greatly increasing the likelihood that a more important top is in place.  Support below there is seen at 108.80 while nearby resistance is seen at the multi-day bearish trendline (currently at 110.25).  

[1255/0855] Cable is consolidating near its recent lows at 1.8515, and after the sharp declines since the July 15th high at 2.0040.  This suggests at least a week or 2 of correcting higher and minimum 400-500 tick bounce is overdue.  However, the market may be forming a small pennant/triangle over the last few days and would suggest a final downleg (potentially a short lived spike) to complete a more important bottom.  With the market currently near the ceiling of the pattern (currently at 1.8675/85) looks like a good area to short.  Note however with the market oversold, there is a greater than normal chance for an upside resolution so would be quick to stop (and even reverse) on a clear break above.  Resistance above there is seen at 1.8785 while support is seen at the base of the pennant (currently at 1.8540/50).   

[1210/0810] $ a bit firmer overnight but still within multi-day ranges as the buck continues to consolidate after the last month of sharp gains.  Though there is scope for more of this choppy trade nearby (and potential for slight new highs versus some currencies), the action is seen as part of a larger topping with at least a week or 2 of correcting lower after.  For the near term, would continue to trade shorter term ranges until better signs that a final top is indeed in place.  Note too that most model funds use momentum based stops and as this momentum continues to slow, expect more of this type of liquidation/profit taking to take place.  Oil was a bit firmer along gold and appear to be bottoming while US stock futures were a bit firmer overnight after recent, sharp declines.   

[1145/0745] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 19, 2008

Having some minor technical difficulties, updates will resume asap.

[1755/1355] A$ is consolidating since the Aug 12th low at .8590, and may to be forming a pennant /triangle.  These are considered to be continuation patterns suggesting an eventual downside resolution, and for now would be short against the ceiling of the pattern (currently at .8730/40).  However, with the market severely oversold after the last month of sharp declines and the US$ trying to top versus a number of other currencies, the risk of an upside resolution appears to be somewhat higher than normal.  So for now, would be quick to stop and even reverse on a clear break above the ceiling.  Resistance above there is seen at .8795 (recent high) while nearby support is seen at .8680 and the base of the pattern (currently at .8620).  In the bigger picture, even if the pattern does resolve lower, it may be just a quick, short-lived spike below the Aug 12th low at .8590 (to complete a more important bottom), so would be quick to aggressively lower stops on such a move lower.

[1640/1240] $/cad is chopping from the Aug 12th high at 1.0725.  In the bigger picture, seen as a correction (wave 4 in the rally from the May low at .9820) and with eventual new highs after (within wave 5), there is scope for another week or 2 of correcting lower toward 1.0430/40 (38% retracement of wave 3) and potentially as far as 1.0310/25 (previously broken highs, now support) first.  However, this downside may be an extended period of downward ranging/chopping (versus a quick move lower), so may be better to trade ranges with a down bias ahead (waiting for bounces to short into and quickly trailing stops lower).  Nearby resistance is seen at the week long bearish trendline (currently at 1.0670) while nearby support is seen at 1.0550 (yesterday's low).  

[1525/1125] Evident that the upside momentum in the $ index has started to slow over the last week and after the sharp gains since the July 15th low at 71.30.  Though this argues that a week or 2 of correcting lower and 2-3 point retracement may be nearing, there remains scope for more ranging/topping and even further new highs as part of a larger topping first (would likely be limited and short-lived).  For now, would trade shorter term ranges as this top forms and until better signs that the final top is indeed in place (5 wave fall on the vert short term charts for example).  Nearby support is seen at 76.70/80 (Monday low and the week long bullish trendline).  Note too in the bigger picture, numerous "black box" type models use some sort of momentum type stops and as this upside momentum continues to fade, more will be begin to liquidate/lighten longs.   

[1410/1010] Cable is chopping near recent lows (and levels not seen since Oct 2006), testing longer term support at the base of the bearish channel since last Nov (currently at 1.8475/25).  Note too that the market is oversold after the sharp declines from the July 15th high at 2.0150, suggesting that risk is rising for at least a week or 2 of consolidating higher.  Nearer term however, the confidence level is not very high that a low of that magnitude is in place (at least so far), leaving open scope for more basing/chopping and even further new lows first (but the downside would be expected to be limited).  For now, would trade very short term ranges but with the expectation of a bigger picture chance to buy ahead (may take another few days).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.8720/30 (yesterday's high).  

[1255/0855] Slight new low in eur/$ below last week's low at 1.4655 before quickly bouncing back above, often a sign of a market that starting to bottom and makes sense after the last month's tumble (market quite oversold).  Note too that eur/$ may be forming a falling wedge since last week, a bottoming pattern that resolves sharply higher.  For now, would either buy a retest/slight break of the overnight low at 1.4630 or on a clear break above the day long bearish trendline/ceiling of possible wedge (currently at 1.4700/10).  In the bigger picture, at least a week or 2 of consolidating higher is overdue and remember...more important bottoms start with smaller bottoms. 

[1210/0810] $ mixed overnight after initially pushing higher (even reaching slight new highs versus some currencies), but failing to build on that early strength.  No doubt the overbought condition of the $ after the last month of sharp gains is making further upside "difficult", and is a sign of a market that's trying to top.  However, with still no signs "pattern-wise" that a more important top is in place (for at least a few weeks), there remains scope for more of this choppy-type trading ahead (and even further slight new highs versus at least some currencies).  For now, would generally continue with the strategy of trading shorter ranges (closer targets, aggressive trailing stops) to keep risks manageable, and until better signs that a more important top is indeed in place.  Would also continue to keep an eye on oil (heavy overnight but still above recent lows) as that market is oversold with a bounce higher potentially an early warning sign of a broader $ top (or at least a concurrent sign).     

[1135/0735] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 18, 2008

[2005/1605] The Dow Jones Industrials have weakened from the Aug 11th high at 11867 and right into support at the bullish trendline since July (currently at 11425/50).  Though an eventual downside break is favored (with potential for declines all the way back to the July low at 10828 and below), there is some potential for further chopping back toward the 11867 high and even slightly above first.  With the market sitting on that trendline, its not seen as the time to just hit bids.  Instead would wait for a clear break below or slight new highs above 11867 to short.  Resistance before there is seen at 11700 (previous highs and a 38% retracement from the May 13137 high) while support below the trendline is seen at 11325/50 (50% from the July 10828 low).  

[1855/1455] A$/cad remains heavy after finally breaking below the bullish trendline since Dec in late July.  Note however, that the last few weeks of decline are seen as a correction (wave 4 in the rally from the Aug 2007 low at .8275, see numbering on daily chart below) and with eventual gains back to the June high at .9840 and even above (within wave 5). With the market currently testing support near .9200 (also a 50% of wave 3) and oversold, looks like a good area to to start rebuilding bigger picture longs.  Support below there is seen at .9050/60 while nearby resistance is seen at .9495.  

[1745/1345] US 10yr note futures remain firm after Friday's break above the July high at 116/02 (to levels not seen since April), with potential for further gains toward the ceiling of the bullish channel (currently at 117/20) and even above ahead.  Want be long.  However, the market has had a tough time building on the new highs (at least so far) while there is some risk that further gains may be limited and part of a larger topping (versus the start of a more important upleg), so would use an aggressive stop on a close below the multi-week bullish trendline (currently at 115/00 and is rising rapidly).  Nearby resistance is seen at 116.18/20 (62% retracement from the March high at 120/01.  

[1635/1235] Cable is trying to bottom from Friday's low at 1.8515, and after the last month's tumble from the July 15th high at 2.0040 (nearly 8%).  With the market oversold, at least a week or 2 of correcting higher and minimum 500-600 tick bounce may be nearing but the confidence level that such a bottom is in place is not currently very high.  Note however, that a break above the multi-day bearish trendline (currently at 1.8710/25) would increase the likelihood, potentially trigger a further upside acceleration, and be a sign to buy.  However, given the still strong downside momentum, would want to use an aggressive, trailing stop (bullish trendline from Friday's low, currently at 1.8630/45).  

[1525/1125] Repeat of the recent pattern for the USO (oil etf), opening firm but quickly reversing downward.  Note however, that the market is oversold over the last month of sharp declines, downside momentum is slowing and may be forming a falling wedge/bottoming pattern over the last week.  This in turn suggests that risk is rising for at least a few weeks of correcting higher and minimum $10/12 bounce (potentially sharp when it does occur), but scope remains for more ranging/bottoming and even further slight new lows first.  For now, would continue with the strategy of trading shorter term ranges with a downward bias until better signs that a more important bottom is indeed in place (for example, 5 waves up on shorter term charts, etc.).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the possible wedge (currently at $89.75) and $87.75 (62% retracement from the Feb low at $68.57) while nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the wedge (currently at $93.25).  Also, keep on eye on the oil along with the $ as one is likely to be an early signal for a reversal in the other.  

[1410/1010] $/yen is chopping from Friday's high at 110.65 and after slightly breaking above the earlier Aug highs near 110.35 (also a 50% retracement from the Jun 2007 high at 124.15).  Though the inability to follow-through to the upside (at least so far) is a near term concern, there are no signs that a more important top is in place and suggests eventual new highs ahead.  For now, would be long but a break below the earlier low at 109.95 would suggest declines toward the month long bullish trendline first (currently at 109.00/10) first.  In the bigger picture, the market may be forming a rising wedge over the last month.  Though these are seen as topping patterns that resolve sharply lower, further wide ranging with the pattern and even further new highs are favored first.  Resistance above the 110.65 high is seen as the ceiling of the possible wedge (currently at 111.60/70).

[1255/0855] $ index continues to trade near levels not seen since last Jan and within the sharp rally since the July 15th low at 71.30.  Though the market is overbought with potential rising for a week or 2 of consolidating lower, there are still no signs "pattern-wise" that such a top is in place and leaving open scope for further new highs (though may be limited) ahead.  Note too that when such a top approaches, the market may go through a period (few days or more) of slowing upside momentum/ranging as this top forms (not there yet).  For now if not positioned, would be best to trade from the long side but with a much shorter term timeframe and aggressive stops to compensate for the rising risk.  Nearby support is seen at 76.80 (earlier low) and 76.55, resistance is at 77.25 (Friday's high).   

[1210/0810] $ rangy overnight, consolidating after last week's gains.  Same old story for the nearer term as the market is overbought after the last few weeks of sharp gains, but still no firm signs that even a broader near term top is in place "pattern-wise".  Note too that trends tend to persist at times like this (thinner, summer markets)  Best in this type of market to trade shorter term (and generally from the $ long side), but with aggressive stops to keep risks at a minimum.  Also, would be trading the pairs that look most likely to have at least some further new highs ($/yen & $/swiss for example).  Note too that the persistent trends in oil and gold continue (lower but a bit firmer today) remains and would continue to watch those markets for signs of a potential reversal higher (would suggest a top in the $).  US stock futures firmer but may be approaching at least a temporary top over the next few days.

[1135/0735] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030

August 13, 2008

*Note, I will be out of the office for the rest of the week w/ updates limited (if at all).  Regular updates resume Monday.

[1410/1010] A final comment...would also keep an eye on crude oil.  The market is very oversold after the last month of sharp declines, with risk rising for at least a $10-12/bbl bounce.  Note too that the market appears to be forming a large falling wedge, a pattern that often resolves sharply and suggests if/when this countertrend bounce does occur, it could be a quick move (ceiling currently $115.00/50 and is falling rapidly).  This in turn could be the "trigger" for this week or more of consolidating lower in the $. 

[1300/0900] In the bigger picture in the $ index, the market is trying to top after the sharp rally since the mid July low at 71.30.  With the market overbought risk is rising sharply for at least a week or 2 of consolidating lower (and potentially more).  Note however that there are still no firm signs that the final top is in place (5 wave fall on shorter term term chart), leaving open scope for more ranging/topping and even further new highs first (would be expected to be limited and short-lived if at all).  Also, some divergences are starting to appear (new $ highs versus some currencies and not versus others) which is common at turning points.  Strategically, its clearly too risky to be buying given this rising nearer term risk and instead would be looking for better signs of a top "pattern-wise" to short for this expected period of correcting lower.  Longer term resistance is at 76.60/75 (recent high, bearish trendline from Nov 2002), support is at the broken rising resistance line from May (currently at 75.10) and the broken ceiling of the bullish channel since March (currently at 74.65).  

[1210/0810] $ mixed overnight, down versus yen, sharply higher versus stg (lower cable) and rangy versus most others.  These "divergences" are often a sign of a market that's in transition and suggests that the $ is trying to top versus most currencies.  These "transitions" often take a least a few days before the broader trend change (to a lower $ in this case) is established.  Best in this type of market to trade with a shorter term time horizon as even the markets that have already topped will tend to be very rangy (relatively deep bounces).  Of note was cable which continued sharply lower (no signs of a near term bottom yet) despite the broader $ not confirming (stg crosses tumbled) and $/yen which remained weak after yesterday's break below the multi-day bullish trendline (would be looking for a bounce to short).  Gold was up over $10/oz, adding weight to the view that the $ is trying to top, oil was a bit firmer but still waiting for a break above the ceiling of the large falling wedge (currently at $115.00/50) to potentially trigger an upside resolution, and stock futures were little changed.    

[1135/0735] Key support and resistance levels from fxa.com, Reuters FXAFX30, Telerate 57030