FX ANALYTICS  COMMENTARY

                                 FXA home page                                                   David Solin                                      (860) 767-9103 / dsolin@fxa.com 

 

Auto Refresh: On (Turn Off)

 

October 18, 2019

[1900/1400] Bitcoin has indeed continued to consolidate from the Sept 26th low at 7712, seen as a correction (wave iv in the decline from at least the Aug 6th high at 12320) and with eventual new lows after (within wave V).  But be warned, further such downside may be limited (versus the start of another major downleg) as longer term support is just below there at 7100/7250 (50% retracement from the Dec 2018 low at 3129).  Nearby resistance is seen at 8750/8900 (top of multi-week range) and the broken base of that multi-month triangle/pennant (cur at 9450/9600).  

[1700/1200] In silver, more downside chopping from the Sept 4th high at $19.65, seen as a large correction and with eventual new highs after.  Nearer term currently testing "pivotal" resistance at the bear t-line from the high (cur at $17.60/65) as remaining below argues more downside chop and even a break below $16.85/90 (Oct 1st low) as part of this larger correction, while a break/close above would argue that the low is already in place.  Further resistance is just above there at  $17.95/00 (Sept 9th high).    

[1500/1000] Eur/yen near recent highs and test of resistance at the ceiling of the bull channel from Sept (cur at 121.25/40).  Though still no confirmation of even a short term top, the market is overbought after the surge over the last few weeks and suggests that even a break above may be limited/short-lived.  Note too that further resistance is just above there at 121.65/80 (50% retracement from the March high at 127.50), adding to the risk that further near term upside may be limited.  Nearby support is seen at the bull trendline form the Oct 9th low (cur at 120.55/70) and 119.85/00 (broken Sept 13th high).    

[1300/0800] US$/DXY has continued sharply lower from the Oct 1st high at 99.65 (long discussed "ideal" area to form a more major top), and as the view of a peak for at least a few months (and potentially much more) remains.  Short term the downside momentum remains strong and with no confirmation of even a near term bottom argues further downside.  But the market is starting to get oversold and suggests a rising risk of an approaching bottom for at least a few weeks.  Note too that the market is quickly nearing that longer term support at the base of the wedge from Sept 2018 (cur at 96.65/90), and will be looking for further signs of a potential nearing bottom on its approaching (slowing downside momentum, etc.).  Nearby support is seen at 97.15/30.  Resistance is seen at the broken bull t-line from June (cur at 98.30/45).     

October 17, 2019

[2100/1600] S&P 500 has indeed continued higher from the Oct 3rd low at 2856 and with no confirmation of even a short term top (so far) argues further gains.  But as been discussing, such upside would be seen as part of that longer term topping (versus the start of a more major, new upleg) and with a rolling over after (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from July (cur at 3017/22) then that long discussed "ideal" are to form a more major top at the ceiling of the multi-year rising wedge (cur at 3035/60).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the low (cur at 2970/75), 2950/55 and again that bull t-line from June (cur at 2590/95).   

[1900/1400] A$ has continued higher from the Oct 2nd low at .6670 (test of the base of the year long falling wedge), with gains to the ceiling (cur at .6955/80) and eventually above still favored.  Short term the market is testing resistance at the ceiling of the bull channel from the low (cur at .6830/45) and though it may hold for a few days/week, such action would be seen as a correction and with a resumption of the gains after.  Further resistance above there is seen at .6890/05 (Sept high), nearby support is seen at the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at .6725/40).  

[1700/1200] Oil choppy from the Oct 3rd low at $51.03 and seen in process of a larger bottoming.  At this point there is still no confirmation of the low "pattern-wise", but even a break below that $51.03 area would likely be limited.  Note too that the longer term support is just below there at $50.30/55 (multiple lows since June).  Nearby support is seen at $52.25/50 and the the bull t-line from last Dec (cur at  $51.30/55).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the Sept high (cur at $53.75/00) and $54.90/15 (recent high). 

[1500/1000] $/yen has indeed rallied above the Sept high at 108.45, earlier reaching 109.00.  Though a short term positive sign, the magnitude of further upside may be limited/more "difficult" as potential of an approaching top for at least a month or 2 is rising.  Note too that the poor upside follow-through (at least so far) and seen within the final upleg in the rally from the Aug 26th low at 104.50 add to this rising risk.  Further resistance above the earlier 109.00/15 high is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from the Aug low (cur at 109.70/85).  Nearby support is seen at the broken 108.30/45 high, the broken bear t-line from Apr (cur at 107.70/85) and the base of the channel (cur at 106.95/10). 

[1300/0800] Eur/$ has continued higher from the Oct 1st low at 1.0880 (long mentioned "ideal" area to form a bottom for at least a few months), after breaking above the bear t-line from June and as the view of a bottom (at least a few months and potentially much more) remains.  Currently the market is testing resistance in the whole 1.1130/55 area (both the ceiling of the bull channel from the low and an 50% retracement from the June high at 1.1410).  Though it may hold for a few days/week, such action would be seen as a correction and with a resumption of the gains after.  Further resistance above 1.1130/55 is seen at 1.1210/25 and the ceiling of the year long falling wedge (cur at 1.1245/70).  Nearby support is seen at 1.1055/70 and the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at 1.1000/15). 

Blog updates will resume on Thursday 

October 14, 2019

[2100/1600] AAPL (apple Computer stock) at another new all time high, earlier reaching $238.  Though the market is overbought after the last few weeks (and months) of sharp gains, the upside pattern from the Oct 3rd low at $215.13 is not "complete" (cur within wave iii) and argues at least some further gains.  Nearby support is seen at $229/30 (both the base of the multi-week bull channel and the broken rising t-line from May), resistance is seen at $238/39 (earlier high, ceiling of that bull channel).    

[1900/1400] $/mxn heavy near recent lows and with no confirmation of even a short term bottom, argues further downside.  In the long term however, the market continues to chop near the middle of the wide 17.45/22.04 range that has been in place since Jan 2017.  Still seen forming that huge triangle/pennant (tighter and tighter range), generally viewed as a continuation pattern and suggests an eventual upside resolution after.  For now, would stay with that long held approach of fading the extremes.  Support below the earlier 19.21/26 low is seen at the base/bull trendline from Jul 2017 (cur at 18.92/97).  Nearby resistance is seen at 19.82/87 and the ceiling/bear t-line from Jan 2017 (cur at 20.20/25).    

[1700/1200] Stg/yen consolidating from yesterday's high and test of bigger picture resistance at 137.75/00 (both a 50% retracement from the Mar high at 148.90 and the ceiling of the bull channel from early Sept).  Though there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term top, a "potential" area to form a top for at least a few weeks (and potentially months) as the market is overbought after the surge over the last week and seen within the final upleg in the rally from the Aug 12th low at 126.55 (wave 5).  Nearby support is seen at 135.50/75 (broken high from Sept) and 134.15/40.   

[1500/1000] Eur/yen stalling near its recent high and test of the Sept 3rd peak at 120.00.  Though an eventual upside resolution is favored, at least another few days/week of this correcting is favored before resuming that larger upmove.  So strategically with the market near that resistance, not seen as the time to chase (versus waiting for lower levels or even that upside resolution).  Further resistance above 120.00/15 is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from early Sept (cur at 121.00/15).  Nearby support is seen at the broken bear t-line from Apr (cur at 118.55/70) and the base of the channel from the low (cur at 117.30/45). 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY finding at least some support at that "pivotal" bull trendline from June (cur at 98.10/25).  Seen "pivotal" as remaining above keeps open scope for a further period of ranging and potentially even a retest/temp break of the Oct 1st high at 99.65 as part of a larger topping (and before rolling over more significantly).  A break/close below however, would argue a top is already in place and target declines to that year long bull t-line/base of large rising wedge (cur at 96.70/95).  Nearby resistance is seen at 98.85/00 (bear t-line from the Oct 1st high and the broken bull t-line from Aug).   

 October 13, 2019

Eur/$ has continued higher from the Oct 1st low at 1.0880, as the view of a bottom for at least a few months (and potentially much more) remains.  Note too that the break above that long discussed bear t-line from June and bullish technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd) targets gains to the ceiling of the year long falling wedge (cur at 1.1255/80) and eventually above (see email from last Monday).  Resistance above the recent 1.1065 high (also the ceiling of the bull channel from the low) is seen at 1.1075/90 and 1.1140/55 (50% retracement from that June 1.1410 high).  Nearby support is seen at the broken bear t-line from June (cur at 1.0990/05) and the base of that channel (cur at 1.0950/65). 

$/yen building on the gains from the Oct 4th low at 106.50 (then the base of the bull channel from Aug) and testing that 108.45/60 resistance (both the Sept 18th high and a 50% retracement from the Apr high at 112.40).  Though this area may again hold for a few days, any near term pullback would likely be limited/short-lived before resuming the gains (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above there is seen at the ceiling of that bull channel from Aug (cur at 109.45/60).  Support is seen at the broken bear t-line from Apr (cur at 107.80/95) and again the base of that bull channel (cur at 106.75/90). 

US 10yr yield higher from the Oct 4th low at 1.50% as that view from early Sept of a month or 2 of wide ranging (as part of a long term bottoming) remains.  Note too that the decline from the Sept 13th high at 1.91% to that 1.50% low occurred in 3 waves (a-b-c) argues a correction and with eventual new highs after.  Currently the market is nearing lots of resistance at the ceiling of the bear channel from Jan 2019 (cur at 1.78/82%) and may again hold for a week or 2 before resuming the larger gains.  Nearby support is seen at 1.63/64% (50% retracement from the 1.50% low).

Oil has continued to chop higher from the Oct 3rd low at $51.03 and test of the bull trendline from Dec.  With the market oversold after the tumble from the Sept 16th high at $63.33, at least another few weeks of upside is favored ahead.  But the magnitude is a question, so more a market to wait for pullbacks to buy and then being aggressive with stops (versus chasing at its highs).  Nearby resistance is seen at $55.55/80 and $57.00/25 (50% retracement from that $63.33 peak).  Nearby support is seen at $52.90/15 and again that bull t-line from last Dec (cur at $51.40/65). 

US$/DXY down from the Oct 1st high at 99.65 as that view of an important top/topping (at least a few months) remains.  Currently testing "pivotal" support at 98.10/25 (bull t-line from Jun) as remaining above keeps open scope for more ranging (as part of that larger topping).  However a break a break/close below would argue declines (potential downside acceleration) to the bull t-line from Sept 2018/base of large rising wedge (cur at 96.75/00) and eventually below.  Nearby resistance is seen at 98.85/00 (ceiling of the bear channel from the high and the broken bull t-line from Aug). 

Cable sharply higher again as that bigger picture view from late Aug of a bottom for at least a few months (and potentially much more) remains.  Note that the market has surged into lots of resistance at 1.2680/05 (bear t-line and 50% retracement from the Mar 13th high at 1.3385, ceiling of bull channel from the Sept low), and "potential" area to provide at least near term resistance.  But would be hesitant to chase even on a break above as the market is getting near term overbought and longer term resistance is just above that the bear t-line from Apr 2018 (cur at 1.2770/95).  Nearby support is seen at 1.2570/85 (broken Sept high) and 1.2500/15.   

$/cad remains choppy near the middle of that bear channel since last Dec.  "Prefer" a rolling over and decline to the base as a number of inversely correlated markets are seen bottoming (A$, eur/$, etc., see in red on daily chart below).  However, must remember that the shorter term action when near the middle of these extended periods of ranging is notoriously difficult to forecast (versus when at the extremes).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the July low (cur at 1.3200/15) and 1.3125/40.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3240/55 and 1.3335/50 (multiple highs since Aug). 

In gold that bigger picture view from late Aug of at least a few months of downside ranging continues to play out, with declines back to the Oct 1st low at $1459 (and below) favored within that large bear channel from early Sept (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at $1487/90 and the ceiling of that bear channel (cur at $1518/21).  Nearby support is seen at $1472/75, $1457/60 (that Oct 1st low) and $1443/47 (both the base of the bear channel from the high and 38% from the Apr low at $1266/"potential" area to form a more important low). 

A$ up from the Oct 2nd low and part of that long discussed bottoming (and potentially major bottoming).  Currently testing "pivotal" resistance at the bear t-line from July (cur at .6805/20) as remaining below argues a further period of ranging/bottoming (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above there is seen at .6885/00 (Sept 12th high) and the longer term ceiling of the year long falling wedge (cur at cur at .6975/00).  Nearby support is seen at .6705/20 and again that longer term .6650/75 area (base of wedge, multiple lows since Aug). 

S&P 500 building on the upside from the Oct 3rd high at 2856, seen part of that long discussed extended period of wide ranging (and part of a major topping).  Short term there is scope for further near term gains and even a retest of that longer term "ideal" area form a major top at 3025/50 (ceiling of the multi-year rising) before rolling over (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear trendlne from the July high (cur just below at 3014/19).  Nearby support is seen at 2957/62 and again that bull trendline from June (cur at 2883/85). 

October 09, 2019

[1700/1200] Silver stalling near its recent high at $17.95 (and test of the bearish trendline from Sept), with a rolling over and declines back to the Oct 1st low at $16.40 (and potentially below) favored.  Note that the upmove from the Oct low occurred in 3 wave (a-b-c), argues a correction and along with the view of further downside in gold (correlated market, see earlier sent email) adds to this near term bearish view.  But be warned further near term downside may be limited (versus the start of a more major, new decline, see in red on daily chart below).  Further support below that $16.85/95 low is seen at $16.35/50 (both the bull trendline from May and the multi-week falling support line). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen jumping higher after breaking above that longer term bearish trendline from Apr and right into resistance at 120.00/15 (Sept high).  Seen part of that longer term bottoming and with an eventual upside break favored.  However not seen as a good risk/reward in just chasing here (versus waiting for a break) given some risk for a continued period of this wide ranging (as part of that longer term bottoming).  Resistance above 120.00/15 is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from the Sept 3rd low (cur at 121.05/20).  Support is seen at that broken bear t-line from Apr (cur at 118.65/80) and the base of the channel from the low (cur at 117.30/45). 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY continues lower from the Oct 1st high at 99.65 and as the view of a top/topping (few months and potentially much lower) remains.  Note too that technicals continue to deteriorate (see bearish divergence/sell mode on the daily macd).  Currently the market is testing "pivotal" support at 98.10/25 (bull t-line from June, base of bear channel from the high).  Seen "pivotal" as remaining above keeps opens scope for more ranging (as part of this topping) while a break/close below would argue a more important top is in place (and potentially trigger a downside acceleration).  Further support below there is seen at 97.00 and that longer term bull t-line from Sept (cur at 96.70/85).  Nearby resistance is seen at 98.80/95 (ceiling of the bear channel from the high and the broken bull t-line from Aug). 

Blog updates will resume on Friday

October 08, 2019

[2100/1600] S&P turning lower as the market ranges from the Oct 3rd spike low at 2865.  Though seen part of that long discussed, more major topping (see email from last Friday), there is scope for another few weeks of this ranging before more significant declines are seen (see in red on daily chart below.  Nearby support is again at that bull trendline from June (cur at 2880/83) and that 2853/56 Oct 3rd spike low.  Nearby resistance is seen at 2957/60 (recent high) and again that longer term 3025/50 area. 

[1900/1400] Gold choppy within that bear channel from early Sept and as the view since late Aug of at least a few months of broadly ranging lower continues to play out (and with more of the same favored ahead).  At this point there is no confirmation of a short term top but but further near term upside would likely be limited before rolling back over (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance is just above the recent $1520 high at the ceiling of the channel (cur at $1524/27), support is seen at $1485/88 and $1457/60 (base of the channel, Sept 18th low). 

[1700/1200] Oil down sharply from the Sept 16th high at $63.33 with an oversold market suggesting a rising potential of a bottom for at least a few weeks.  But as often discussed, reversals after sharp moves often takes a more extended period of time to form (to allow the momentum to slow).  This in turn argues more ranging and even further lows below $51.03 (Oct 3rd low) as part of the process.  Note too that further support is just below that $51.03 at $50.40/65 (June/Aug lows).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the bear channel from the high (cur at $53.65/90). 

[1500/1000] $/yen little moved just above that 106.50/75 "pivotal" support area (base of bull channel from Aug, 50% from Aug 26th spike low at 104.50).  Seen "pivotal" as remaining above keeps open scope for gains above the Sept 18th high at 118.45 more directly ahead while a break/close below would be a near term negative sign and argue more basing back toward the 104.50/75 lows (also the Jan spike low) first.  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from Apr (cur at 107.95/10).    

[1300/0800] Eur/$ firm near recent highs, up from that Oct 1st low and as the view of an approaching bottom (few months and potentially much more remains).  But with still no confirmation of such a low, there is scope for more chopping before more significant gains are seen.  So remains a time where "taking what the market gives" is important.  Further resistance is just above the recent 1.1000 highs at the bear t-line from June (cur at 1.0015/30, break/close above would increase the likelihood that the bottom is in place.  Support is seen at 1.0930/45 and again that longer term 1.0860/85 area (recent low, base of year long falling wedge). 

October 07, 2019

[2100/1600] In AAPL (Apple Computer stock) another slight new high at $229.93 and testing the ceilings of both the rising wedge from May as well as last Jan.  Wedges are viewed as reversal patterns and the market near the ceiling, suggests a rolling (potentially sharp) may be near.  Note too that technicals have not confirmed recent highs (see bearish divergence on the daily macd).   Key resistance is seen at the ceiling, bull t-line from May (cur at $299/31), support is seen at $215/16 (recent low, bull t-line from June, break/close below may trigger a downside acceleration). 

[1900/1400] Kiwi up from that Oct 1st slight new low at .6205 and test of lots of support (falling trendline from Jan, Sept 2015 low, etc), is seen bottoming (at least a month or 2 and potentially much more).  At this point however there still no confirmation of such a low "pattern-wise" keeping open scope for a more extended period of ranging/bottoming before more significant gains are see (see in red on daily hart below.  Nearby support is seen at .6260/75 (50% retracement from that .6205 low) then again that longer term .9190/15 area).  Nearby resistance is seen at the multi-week bear trendline (cur at .6325/40) and .6440/55 (Sept 12th high). 

[1700/1200] $/mxn choppy near the middle of that long discussed, 17.45/22.04 range that has been in place since Jan.  Still seen forming that large triangle/pennant (tighter and tighter ranges) suggesting an eventual upside resolution (they are generally viewed as continuation patterns), but with scope for a continued period of this wide ranging first.  So would generally stay with that approach of fading extremes, key support resistance areas ahead.  Nearby support is seen at the recent 19.30/33 low and the bull trendline from July 2017/base of the potential triangle (cur at 18.92/95).  Nearby resistance is seen at 18.85/88 and the ceiling/bear t-line from Jan 2017 (cur at 20.21/24).       

[1500/1000] Eur/chf remains choppy from the Sept 4th low at 1.0810 and after the large tumble from the Apr 23rd high at 1.1475.  Note that the upmove from that low to the Sept 18th high at 1.1020 occurred in 3 waves (A-B-C), argues a correction and with eventual new lows after.  But be warned this period of ranging has lasted only a month and is correcting a decline that lasted over 4 months (may not be long enough "time-wise").  This in turn argues a further period of this consolidating first (poss triangle/pennant forming ?).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the Sept 18th high (cur at 1.0975/90 high) and 1.1015/30 just above.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the low (cur at 1.0840/55) and that 1.0795/10 low. 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY sitting near recent lows and test of support at 97.55/70 (bull t-line from Aug).  In the big picture, the view of an approaching top for at least a few months (and potentially much more) remains.  As been discussing however, there is still no confirmation of such a top and continues to keep open scope for more ranging as part of the process (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 99.00/15 and again that longer term 99.60/85 area, long mentioned "ideal" area to form such a peak (Oct 1st high, rising t-line from Apr, ceiling of multi-year bear channel).   

October 05, 2019

Eur/$ did indeed quickly bounce from the Oct 1st slight new low at 1.0880, testing the base of the long discussed, year long falling wedge and as the view of an approaching bottom (at least a few months and potentially much more, see email from last week) remains (wedges are viewed as reversal patterns).  Note too the market has likely completed the 5 wave decline from at least the June high at 1.1415 (wave v) while technicals are bullish (see bull divergence on the daily macd).  But there does remain some scope for more of this ranging near term before more significant gains are seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from June (cur at 1.1025/40), 1.1110/25 (Sept 13th high) and that longer term bear t-line from Sept 2018/ceiling of the large falling wedge (cur at 1.1265/90).  Nearby support is seen at 1.0935/50 and again that longer term 1.0860/85 area (recent low, base of that year long wedge).    

$/yen finding at least some support at 106.35/50 (base of bull channel from Aug, 50% from the Aug 26th low at 104.50).  Seen "pivotal" for the near term as remaining above argues a resumption of the gains back to 108.35/50 (Sept 18th high) and even above.  However a break/close below would be a near term negative sign and argue a more extended period of bottoming back toward those Aug 104.50/75 lows.  Nearby resistance is seen at 107.25/40 and the bear t-line from Apr (cur at 118.00/15).  

US 10yr yield building on the downside from the Sep 13th high at 1.91% (then also the ceiling of the bear channel from Jan).  Though no confirmation of even a short term low so far, that longer term view over the last month of an extended period of wide ranging from the Sept 3rd low at 1.43% remains, and in turn suggests that further downside from here would likely be limited.  So for now will be looking for signs of a near term bottoming (slowing down momentum 5 waves up on very short term chart, etc.) to argue a low (for at least a few weeks). Nearby support is seen at 1.49/50% (recent low, base of the multi-week bear channel) and that longer term 1.40/43% (base of multi-year bull channel).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at $1.64/65%), 1.75/76% and again the ceiling of the bear channel from last Jan (cur at 1.82/85%). 

Oil finding at least some support at its recent, $51.03 low and with an oversold market after the plunge from the Sept 16th high at $63.33 suggesting an approaching bottom (for at least a few weeks).  But as often discussed, reversals after sharp moves often take some time to form (to allow the momentum to slow) and in turn raises scope for another few days/week of ranging/bottoming before more significant gains are seen (see "ideal" scenario in red on daily chart below).  Note too that the longer support is just below at $50.40/65 (multiple lower since Aug), and adds to the view that further near term downside may be limited.  Support before there is seen at the recent $50.85/10 low, resistance is seen at the ceiling of the bear channel from the Sept high (cur at $53.60/85). 

US$/DXY down from a slight new high at 99.65 on Oct 1st with a top (at least a few months and potentially much more) seen nearing (see email from Weds).  Note however that the nearer term upside pattern from the Sept 13th low at 97.85 is not "complete" (seen within wave iv) raising scope for more topping and potentially even another temp new high before rolling over more significantly (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at 98.55/70 (recent low, bull t-line from Aug) and the bull t-line from June (cur at 98.00/15).  Nearby resistance is seen at 99.10/25 and that 99.60/85 area (recent high, rising t-line from Apr and the longer term ceiling of the bear channel from 2015).  

$/cad remains choppy near the the middle of that long discussed bear channel from Dec.  Must remember that forecasting the shorter term moves when near the middle of these extended periods of ranging is notoriously difficult.  So generally would stay with the approach of fading extremes (where confidence is higher), key support areas and then being aggressive with stops in an attempt to capture some of the larger swings within the channel.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3340/55, 1.3385/00 (Sept peak) and the ceiling of the bear channel/bear t-line from Dec (cur at 1.3485/00).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3270/85 and the bull t-line from July (cur at 1.3190/05). 

Cable down from the Sept 20th high at 1.2585 and in the big picture is seen as a correction, with eventual new highs after.  Note however, that technicals are still bearish (see sell mode on the daily macd) while the decline from that high occurred in 5 waves (downside not "complete") and in turn argues another week or 2 of this ranging/correcting before resuming the larger gains.  Nearby support is seen at the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at 1.2255/70) and 1.2195/05 (Oct 1sts low).  Resistance is seen at 1.2395/10 (recent high, 50% from the 1.2585 peak). 

Gold continues to chop lower from the Sept 4th high at $1557 and as the view over the last month of an extended period of ranging downward is still unfolding.  Nearer term the market is higher from the Sept 18th low at $1483 and though there is no confirmation of a top, further gains would likely be limited before rolling back over (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at $1520/25 (recent high, ceiling of bear channel/62% retracement from the Sept 4th high at $1557).  Nearby support is seen at $1489/92, $1457/60 (recent low, base of the bear channel from the high) and the longer term $2144/47 area (38% retracement from the Apr low at $1266). 

A$ has indeed snapped higher from the Oct 2nd low at .6670 after again testing the base of the year long falling wedge (also multiple spike lows since Aug).  Wedges are viewed as reversal patterns suggesting gains to the ceiling (cur at .6985/10) and above.  However, there is always that scope for a more extended period of this broader ranging within the pattern first, so generally would stay with that long held approach of fading the extremes.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6780/95 (50% retracement from the Sept 12th high at .6895) and the bear t-line from July (cur at .6820/35).  Key, long term support remains in that .6660/85 area.    

S&P 500 bouncing sharply back to the Oct 3rd spike low at 2856 (test of the bull t-line from June) with no confirmation of even a short term top and strong short term upside momentum arguing at least some further gains.  But the action is seen part of that previously discussed, extended period of wide ranging as part of a long term topping so the magnitude of further gains from here is a question (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 2955/60 and that long discussed "ideal" area to form a major top at 3025/50 (ceiling of multi-year rising wedge).  Nearby support is seen at 2910/15 and again that bull t-line from June (cur at 2875/80). 

October 04, 2019

[1900/1400] Bitcoin consolidating from the Sept 30th low at 7701 after resolving sharply lower from that long discussed triangle/pennant from the Jun 26th high at 13868.  Though there is scope for another few days of consolidating, such action would be seen as a correction (wave iv in the decline from the Aug 6th high at 12320) and with a resumption of the decline after (within wave v, see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 8550/8700 and the broken base of the triangle (cur at 9350/9500).   

[1700/1200]  A$/kiwi has continued to chop lower from the Sept 20th high at 1.0840 (also a 62% retracement from the Aug 2018 high at 1.1175).  Bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd) and still overbought market after the rally form the Aug 6th spike low at 1.0265 argue at least another few weeks of downside ahead.  But the action may continue to be a period of broadly, chopping lower (versus more significant declines).  Nearby support is seen at 1.0660/75 (earlier low, base of the bear channel from the high) and 1.0605/20 (38% retracement from the 1.0265 low).  Resistance is seen at the ceiling of the bear channel from the high (cur at 1.0785/00). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen heavy near recent lows, down from the Sept 13th high at 120.00 and in the big picture is seen part of larger bottoming (at least a few months).  Note too appear to be forming a falling wedge/reversal pattern over the last few weeks suggesting that at least a nearer term bottom is approaching (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of that small wedge (cur at 117.80/95) and that longer term bear t-line from last Apr 9cur at 118.95/10).  Nearby support is seen at 116.90/05 (recent lows, base of the small falling wedge). 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY sagging from the Oct 1st slight new high at 99.65 and as the view of a topping (for at least a few months and potentially much more) remains.  Note however that the short term upmove from the Sept 13th low at 97.85 is not "complete" (cur within wave iv) and raises scope for another week or 2 of toping before finally rolling over more significantly (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from late Aug (cur at 98.45/60) and the bull t-line from June (cur at 97.95/10).  Nearby resistance is seen at 98.95/10 and again that important 98.60/75 area (recent high, rising t-line from Aug and that longer term ceiling of the multi-year bear channel).  

October 02, 2019

[2100/1600] The market has continued sharply lower from recent highs and after again testing that very long discussed "ideal" area to form a major top at 3025/50 (ceiling of multi-year rising wedge).  Note that the market is currently testing "pivotal" support at the bull t-line from June (cur at 2870/75) as remaining above keeps scope for a more extended period of wide ranging/topping (see in red on daily chart below).  Further support below there is seen at 2825/35 (multiple lows since early Aug), nearby resistance is seen at 2925/30. 

[1900/1400] A$ at another new low, building on the downside from the Sept 12th high at .6895 and again testing that longer term .6660/85 support area (multiple lows since Aug and the base of the year long falling wedge).  Though a potential area to form a bottom (and even more major bottom), there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term low so far so the confidence is not currently very high.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6740/55 and that bear t-line from Sept (cur at .6770/85). 

[1700/1200] Oil has continued to tumble from the Sept 16th high at $63.33 and with still no confirmation of even a short term low (so far) argues further downside.  But be warned, the market is no doubt oversold after the recent tumble and suggests a rising risk of a potentially sharp snapback (min $3-$4).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the multi-week bear channel (cur at $51.95/20) and that longer term $50.30/55 area (Jun 5th/Aug 7th spike lows).  Nearby resistance is seen at $53.05/30 and the ceiling of that bear channel (cur at $55.20/45).    

[1500/1000] $/yen continues to chop from the Sept 18th high at 108.45, see as a correction and with an eventual resumption of the longer term gains after.  Currently the market is testing support at the base of the bull channel from Aug (cur at 107.15/30).  Seen "pivotal" for the near term as a break/close below would argue a deeper/more extended period of correcting before resuming that larger upmove.  Further support below there is seen at 106.40/55 (50% from the Aug 26th low at 104.50).  Nearby resistance is seen in the 108.25/45 area (recent highs, bear t-line from Apr). 

[1300/0800] Eur/$ heavy near recent lows, within the "ideal" area to form a bottom and potentially more significant bottom (falling support line/base of year long wedge, cur at 1.0960/85).  Still no confirmation of even a shorter term low (so far), but would expect any further downside to again be limited as this bottom approaches (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistnce is seen at the 2 week bear t-line (cur at 1.0940/55) and that long discussed, bear t-line from June (cur at 1.1040/55).   

September 30, 2019

[2100/1600] AAPL (Apple Computer stock) pushing back toward recent highs and resistance at $226/29 (also the ceiling of the large, rising wedge-like pattern from last Jan).  Note that wedges are viewed as reversal patterns suggesting that further near term gains would likely be limited before rolling over (see in red on daily chart below).  So will be looking for signs of a near term topping ahead (poor upside follow-through, 5 waves down on very short term chart, etc.) as a signal to short.  Nearby support is seen at $216/17 (recent lows) and the bull trendline from June (cur at $209/10).  

[1900/1400] Kiwi as slipped to a slight new low and a level not seen in 4 years.  Though still no confirmation of even a short term bottom "pattern-wise", the slowing downside momentum and oversold market argues a rising potential of a bottom for at least a few months (and potentially more).  Note too that the market is within lots of longer term support down into the .6325 area (falling support line from Jan, Sept 2015 low) an "ideal" area to form such a low.  Nearby resistance is seen at .6345/60 (recent high, bear t-line from July) and .6445/60 (Sept 12th high).

[1700/1200] $/swiss near recent highs, up from the Aug 13th low at .9660 and again testing that .9975/90 area that has capped the market since Aug 1st.  In the big picture, that upside from Aug is seen a correction, with even a break this .9975/90 resistance likely short-lived (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above is just above there at 1.0020/35 (ceiling of the rising wedge from Aug and a 62% retracement from the Apr high at 1.0240).  Nearby support is seen at the base/bull trendline from the Aug low (cur at .9860/75). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen consolidating near recent lows and test of that 117.45/60 support area (Sept 12th low, 50% from the Sept 3rd low at 115.85).  In the big picture a bottom is still seen in place for at least a few months with this support seen "pivotal" for the near term (remaining above would argue a resumption of the bigger picture gains ahead while below would argue a more extended period of bottoming).  Nearby resistance is seen at 118.45/60 and that bear t-line from Apr (cur at 119.20/35). 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY has remained firm and as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise".  However further gains would likely be limited as a top (and potentially more major top) is seen nearing.  Note too that the market is within that longer term 99.30/65 area and "ideal" area to form such a peak (see email from last week).  So for now, would be looking for signs of a near term topping (poor upside follow-through, 5 waves down on shorter term chart, etc.) to increase the likelihood/confidence.  Nearby support is 98.75/90 and the bull t-line from late Aug (cur at 98.35/50).