FX ANALYTICS  COMMENTARY

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February 15, 2020

Eur/$ has indeed continued lower from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 (test of the ceiling of the bear channel from Aug) and achieving that long held minimum target of declines below the Oct low at 1.0880.  Still no confirmation of even a short term low and strong downside momentum (though suspect it will start to slow ahead) argues further downside, but the longer term magnitude is a question (see email from last week).  Nearby resistance is now at that broken 1.0875/90 low and 1.0925/40.  Bigger picture support below the recent 1.0815/30 low is seen in the whole 1.0710/60 area (base of the bear channel from last Jun, falling support line from Aug 2018).        

$/yen is stalling near recent highs and lots of resistance in the 110.05/30 area (bear trendline from Jan 2015, Jan high).  Seen peaking as that long held view of an extended period of wide ranging as part of a larger topping and before rolling over, continues to play out.  Note too that even a break above this resistance would likely be limited, short-lived (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above there is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 110.60/75).  Nearby support is seen at 109.20/35 and 108.25/40 (bull t-line from Aug, Feb 3rd low).  

US 10yr yield remains choppy from the Jan 31st low at 1.50%, with the long held view of declines below the Sept low at 1.43% still in place.  The 3 wave rally from the Sept low to the Nov peak at 1.97% (A-B-C, a correction) remains as a big picture negative.  Short term there is some scope for another few days/week of consolidating before resuming the decline (see in red on daily chart below).  Resistance is seen at 1.68/69% (top of multi-week range) and 1.74/75% just above (both the broken bull t-line from Sept and the bear t-line from late Dec).  A final note...Further such declines below that 1.43% low may be limited/short-lived and versus the start of a more significant, new downleg (see email from last week). 

US$/DXY near recent highs, building on the upside from the Dec 31st low at 96.35 (and then the base of the bull channel from Sept 2018).  As been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise", arguing continued gains.  However the market is overbought suggesting a rising risk of a top for at least a few weeks and will be looking for further signs to increase that likelihood/potential ahead (slowing upside momentum, 5 waves down on very short term chart, etc.).  Nearby resistance is seen at 99.15/30 (recent high, longer term bearish trendline from Jan 2017) and 99.60/75 (Oct peak).  Nearby support is seen at 98.60/75 and 98.10/25.  

Oil consolidating from the Feb 4th low with an oversold market after the tumble from the Jan 8th high at $65.62 and bullish technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd) arguing a bottoming for at least another few weeks/month.  Though there is still no confirmation of such a low, further downside below that $49.33 low would likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Lots of longer term support is just below there in the whole $48.35/85 area (bull t-line from Feb 2016, base of bear channel from last Apr).  Currently the market is testing resistance at the broken bull t-line from Aug (cur at $52.45/70) with a break/close above arguing that the low is already in place.  Further resistance above there is seen at $53.20/45 and $55.35/60 (38% from the $65.62 peak).  

$/cad has indeed turned lower from the Feb 10th high at 1.3330 and test of the ceiling of the bear channel from Sept.  An overbought market and likely completion of the 5 wave rally from the Dec low at 1.2950 argues a top for at least another few weeks (and potentially more).  Nearby resistance remains at that 1.3320/35 area (recent high, ceiling of that bear channel).  Support is seen at the recent 1.3225/40 low, 1.3180/95 and 1.3230/45 (50% retracement from the Dec low, bull t-line from the lows). 

Cable has bounced from the Feb 10th low at 1.2870 and only slight break below the Dec 23rd low at 1.2905.  A bullish false break and adds to the long held, bigger picture of an extended period of ranging since the Dec spike high and eventual new highs above that 1.3515 peak after (though still scope for more wide ranging, consolidating first).  Nearby resistance above the recent 1.3060/75 high is seen at the bear t-line from the Dec high (cur at 1.3120/35) and the bear t-line from Dec (adjusting for the spikes, cur at 1.3170/85).  Nearby support is seen at 1.2940/55 and again that whole 1.2970/05 area (recent and Dec lows). 

In gold, that view over the last month of an extended period of ranging (as part of a larger topping) continues to play out (see in red on daily chart below).  Currently testing resistance at the broken bull t-line from Jan 14th (cur at $1584/87) with a even a break above likely limited (large rising wedge/reversal pattern ?).  Further resistance above there is seen at $1595/98 (Feb 3rd high, rising t-line from Aug).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from Dec (cur at $1562/65). 

A$ choppy from the Feb 7th low at .6675 and after reaching that bigger picture, minimum target over the last few months (Oct low).  An oversold market after the last few months of sharp downside and within the final downleg in the decline from the Dec 31st high at .7035 (wave v) argues a rising risk of a bottom for at least a few weeks/month.  Still no confirmation but a break/close above the ceiling of the bear channel from the high (cur at .6740/65) would increase the likelihood.  Further resistance above there is seen at .6795/10 and .6845/60 (38% retracement from the .7035 peak).    

S&P 500 near recent and all time highs at 3385 and as been discussing for quite some time, there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term peak "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example). So must assume further gains despite being extremely overbought (increasing risk of a top for at least a month) and remains a market to just "stay with the trend".  Further resistance above the recent 3383/88 high is seen at 3405/10 (both the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct and the 2 week channel).  Support is seen at 3345/50 (bull t-line from Jan 31st/base of the 2 week bull channel), 3312/17 and the bull t-line from Oct (cur at 3250/55). 

February 08, 2020

Eur/$ has indeed continued lower as that view over the last month of declines below the Oct low at 1.0880 continues to unfold (the 3 wave rally, A-B-C from the Oct low to the Dec peak at 1.1240 argues a correction).  In the big picture however, further downside below that 1.0880 low may be limited (in the big picture and versus the start of a major new tumble) given lots of longer term positives (see email from Weds).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the bear channel from the high (cur at 1.0925/40), resistance is seen at the broken base of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 1.0995/10) and the ceiling of the bear channel from the high (cur at 1.1070/85). 

$/yen again stalling near recent highs and as that long held view of an extended period of ranging/topping and eventual rolling over, continues to play out.  Currently testing longer term resistance 110.10/30 (bear t-line from Jan 2015, Jan 17th high) but even a break above would likely be limited/short-lived (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above there is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 110.55/70).  Nearby support is seen at 109.15/30 and 108.05/20 (base of the channel from Oct, Jan 31st low).  

US 10yr yield no change, as declines back to the Sept 3rd low at 1.43% and even below is still favored.  The 3 wave upmove from Sept to the Nov peak at 1.97% (A-B-C, a correction) remains as a big picture negative.  Currently the market is consolidating from the Jan 31st low at 1.50% and though there is scope for another week or so of ranging, a resumption of the decline would be favored after (see in red on daily chart below).  Key resistance remains in that 1.69/72% area (recent high, broken Dec 3rd low, broken bull t-line from Sept, bear t-line from early Jan).  

US$/DXY building on the upside from the Dec 31st and still no confirmation of even a short term top argues further gains.  But as been discussing for some time, such bigger picture upside (and potentially even new highs above the Oct peak at 99.65) would likely part of a more major topping (and versus the start of a long term, new upmove).  Note too that the market is starting to get overbought in the shorter term, so strategically a tough time to chase from here (with the market at its recent highs and if not already positioned).  Further resistance above the recent 98.70 high is seen at the bearish trendline from Jan 2017/ceiling of the bear channel from 2015 (cur at 99.10/35).  Nearby support is seen at 98.05/20 and the bull trendline from the Dec lows (cur at 97.50/65).   

Oil consolidating from the Feb 4th low at $49.33, is no doubt oversold after the tumble from the Jan 8th high at $65.62 and suggests an approaching bottom (and min $5-$6 bounce).  At this point there is no confirmation but would expect any further downside to be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Note too that lots of longer term support is just below that $49.33 low at $48.25/75 (bull t-line from Feb 2016, base of bear channel from Apr) and an "ideal" area to form such a low.  Nearby resistance is seen at $52.10/35 (recent high, bull t-line from Aug) and the bear t-line from the Jan highs (cur at $54.15/40). 

Yet another new high in $/cad, building on the rally from the Dec 31st low at 1.2950 and reaching 1.3320 on Feb 7th.  Note that the market is overbought while within the final upleg in the rally from Dec (wave v) and suggests a rising risk of a top for at least a few weeks/month.  Though no confirmation of such a peak so far, the market is within lots of resistance at 1.3305/25 (ceiling of bear channel from Sept, 50% retracement from the Dec 2018 high at 1.3665) and an "ideal" area to form such a top.  Nearby support is seen at 1.3250/65 and 1.3170/85 (38% from the 1.2950 low). 

Cable under pressure after breaking below that 1.2950/75 support area (both the bull t-line from Dec and Sept).  No doubt a bearish sign and with further downside favored ahead.  In the big picture however, that action is part of that long discussed extended period of chopping lower from the Dec spike high at 1.3515, seen as a large correction and with an eventual resumption of the longer term gains after.  So the magnitude of this nearer term downside is a question.  Further support below the earlier 1.2880 low is seen at the base of the bear channel from Dec (cur at 1.2770/85) and 1.2710/35 (50% from the Sept low at 1.1955 and a retracement that tends to work well in this market).  Nearby resistance is now at that broken, 1.2950/75 area. 

Gold continues to chop since the Jan 8th spike high at $1611 as the view over the last month of an extended period of ranging (as part of a larger topping) continues to play out.  Though scope remains for more of this ranging before rolling over, any further near term upside would likely be limited  (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the broken bull t-line from Jan (cur at $1573/76) and $1594/97 (Feb 3rd high, rising t-line from last Aug).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from Dec (cur at $1551/54) and $1534/37 (Jan 14th low).  

A$ at another new low and finally reaching that target over the last month at .6670 (Oct low) and below.  Still no confirmation of a bottom and continued bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd) argue further downside.  However the market is getting oversold after the tumble from the Dec 31st high at .7035 while within the final downleg from that peak (wave v) and suggests an increasing potential of an approaching bottom for at least a month or 2.  So will be looking for signs of a shorter term bottoming ahead to increase the potential/risk of that approaching, bigger picture bottom (larger reversals generally begin with smaller ones).  Further support below .6660/74 is seen at the base of the bear channel from the late Dec high (cur at .6615/30), resistance is seen at .6700/15 and .6775/90 (recent high, ceiling of the channel).     

S&P 500 near recent (and all time) highs at 3348, with still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example) so must assume further gains.  But the market is overbought after the surge from Oct while technicals have not yet confirmed the recent gains (see bearish divergence on the daily macd) raising the risk in the upside.  So will be watching for further signs ahead to increase that risk of a top (slowing upside momentum, 5 waves down on short term chart, etc.).  Further resistance above that recent 3345/50 high is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from Oct 9cur at 3395/00).  Support is seen at 3295/00, the base of the bull channel from Oct (cur at 3270/75) and 3210/15 (Jan 31st low).   

 

January 30, 2020

Eur/$ continues lower from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 and with eventual declines below that Oct low at 1.0880 still favored.  As been discussing over the last few weeks, that "failure" to resume the bigger picture upside, 3 wave upmove from Oct (A-B-C, a correction) and bearish technicals all point to those new lows.  Short term (and as with a number of other markets) there is that rising potential for a few weeks of consolidating along the way lower.  Nearby support is seen at 1.0985/00 (recent low, base of bull channel from Oct, base of bear channel from the high) and would be an "ideal' area to form such a near term bottom (still no confirmation).  Nearby resistance is seen at the 2 week bear t-line (cur at 1.1055/70) and the ceiling of the bear channel from the high (cur at 1.1110/25).  

$/yen building on the downside from the Jan 17th high at 110.30 (test of both the bear t-line from Jun 2015, ceiling of bull channel from Oct) and as the view of a top for at least a few months remains.  But as been discussing, the big picture action ahead may be more of an extended period of wide, chopping lower (with good sized bounces along the way and versus a major tumble).  Nearby support is seen at 108.50/65, and the base of the bull channel from Aug (cur at 108.10/25). 

US 10yr yield has indeed continued lower after breaking below that key 1.69% support area (bull t-line and 50% from Sept low at 1.43%, Dec 3rd low, base of bear channel from Nov) and as discussed, would target declines below that 1.43% low.  Note too that technicals remain bearish (see sell mode on the daily macd).  Short term the market is getting oversold and suggests an increasing potential of a few weeks of consolidating within its larger trend (though no confirmation and as with a number of other markets).  Key resistance is now in that 1.69/70% area. 

The market has indeed continued higher from that Dec 31st low at 96.35 (then also the base of the bull channel from Sept) and with still no confirmation of even a short term top "pattern-wise" argues further gains.  But be warned, the market is getting short term overbought while near the middle of that extended period of wide chopping since Oct (action tends to be sloppy), so the magnitude of further near term upside is a question.  Note too a further slowing of the upside momentum (gains become more "difficult") ahead will add to that risk of an approaching, multi-week top.  Further resistance above the recent 98.10/25 high is seen at 98.45/60 (ceiling of bull channel from Dec, ceiling of bear channel from the Oct high).  Nearby support is seen at 97.60/75 (base of broken bear t-line from Oct) and the bull t-line from the low (cur just below). 

Yet another new low in oil, building the sharp decline from the Jan 8th high at $65.62.  Still no confirmation of even a short term low "pattern-wise" but the market is extremely oversold with potential rising rapidly for a minimum multi-week bounce.  Note too that the downside momentum is starting to slow while within lots of support at near $52.00 (recent low, bull t-line from Aug, base of bull channel from Sept).  Further support below there is seen at $50.95/15 (Oct low).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the Jan 8th spike high (cur at $54.10/35 and falling rapidly) and the bear t-line from the highs (adjusting for the spikes, cur at $56.50/75). 

$/cad has indeed continued higher from the Dec 31st low at 1.2950 (then also the base of the bear channel from Sept) and with gains toward the ceiling (cur at 1.3300/15) still favored.  Short the term the market is getting overbought and within the final upleg in the rally from Dec wave v) and suggests an increasing risk for a few weeks of consolidating along the way (though still no confirmation but a rising risk to be aware of).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3155/70 and 1.3070/85 (both the bull t-line from the low and the longer term t-line from last Jul). 

In cable no change as the view since Dec of an extended period (few months) of ranging/consolidation from the Dec high before resuming the upmove above that 1.3515 continues to play out.  Still seen forming that triangle/pennant (tighter and tighter range, generally viewed as a continuation pattern) and adds to that view of eventual new highs.  Note too the market earlier again bounced from the base (cur at 1.2960/75) and with a break above the ceiling/bear t-line from Dec (cur at 1.3175/90) arguing that upside resolution.  

Gold still grinding higher from the Jan 14th low at $1536 and as the view of gains back toward that Jan 8th high at $1611 as the market "back-fills" that spike high (common occurrence after rapid reversals) remains.  In the long term however, such action is likely part of a more major topping and versus the start of a more significant, new upleg (see email from last week).  Nearby resistance is seen at $1588/91 (recent and Jan 6th highs), support is seen at the base of the bull channel from Nov (cur at $1566/69) and the bull t-line from the Jan 14th low (cur just below at $1560/63). 

A$ has indeed continued to tumble from the Dec 31st high at .7035 (then also the ceiling of the bear channel from Dec 2018) and with declines below that Oct low at .6670 still favored.  Note the 3 wave upmove from Oct (A-B-C, a correction) and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd) remains as big picture negatives.  Short term the market is no doubt oversold and suggests an increasing potential for a week or 2 of consolidating along the way (though still no confirmation).  Nearby resistance is seen at .6765/80 and the broken bull t-line from Oct (cur at .6800/15).  

S&P 500 near recent lows again testing that bull trendline from Oct (cur at 3240/45).  Seen "pivotal" for the near term as a break/close below would argue a top for at least another few weeks of downside while remaining above keeps open scope for gains back to the the Jan 22nd high at 3338 and potentially above.  In the longer term however, such downside may be more of a quick spike (versus the start of a more major, extended tumble) as that larger upside pattern from Aug is still not "complete" (see email from last Friday).  Further support is just below there at 3230/35 (recent low) and the potentially more important 3150/55 (38% from the Oct 2856 low).  Nearby resistance is seen at the broken bull t-line from Dec (cur at 3300/05).   

January 25, 2020

Eur/$ remains under pressure, down from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 (then also the ceiling of the bear channel from Jan 2019).  In the big picture and as been discussing over the last few weeks, that inability to follow through on the upside soon after argued a more extended period of wide ranging (as much as a few months) and potentially even new (but limited) downside below that Oct 1.0880 low.  At this point the timing of that downside is a question (more directly ahead or extended period of broad, ranging lower), but the market is testing support at 1.1010/25 (62% from the Oct low, base of bull channel from Oct, base of bear channel from the high) and "potential" area to form a bottom for at least a few weeks (no confirmation so far and thus the term "potential" to reflect the currently lower confidence).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1070/85 and the ceiling of of the bear channel from the high (cur at 1.1130/45).  

$/yen has indeed rolled over from the Jan 17th high at 110.30 (then bear t-line from Jun 2015/ceiling of bull channel from Oct) and as the bigger picture view of a top for at least a few months remains.  Bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd) and overbought market after the rally from the Aug low at 104.40 remain as big picture negatives.  But be warned, the action ahead may be more an extended period of ranging/chopping with a downside bias (and good sized swings in both direction), and versus a more major tumble (see email from last Monday).  Nearby support is seen at 108.85/00 (50% from the Jan 8th low at 107.65) and 107.80/95 (base of bull channels from Oct and Aug).  Nearby resistance is seen at 109.65/80 and again that 110.15/30 area. 

US 10yr yield near recent lows, testing lots of support at 1.67/69% (50% and bull t-line from the Sept low at 1.43%, Dec 3rd low, base of channel from Nov).  Seen "pivotal" for the bigger picture as remaining above keeps open scope for gains back to that 1.97% peak and even above (larger rising wedge-like pattern since Sept).  A break/close below however, would argue a more important is in place and target declines back toward that 1.43% low.  Nearby resistance is seen at the multi-week bear t-line (cur at 1.81/82%) and that 1.96/97% area.

US$/DXY has indeed continued higher from the Dec 31st low at 96.35 (then also that falling support line from Oct), breaking above that bearish trendline from the Oct high.  In the big picture, argues a more extended period of wide ranging back toward that 99.65 (as much as a month or 2) as part of a more major topping.  Note too that technicals remain bullish (see buy mode on the daily macd).  Currently the market is nearing resistance at 98.00/15 (50% retracement and top of bear channel from the Oct peak) and may provide a top for at least a week or 2 in this larger period of wide ranging (though no confirmation so far).  Nearby support is seen at 97.55/70 (base of the bull channel from the low and that broken bear t-line from the Oct high). 

Oil building on the huge tumble from the Jan 8th high at $65.62, reaching a recent low at $53.89.  Though still no confirmation of even a short term bottom (so far), the market is no doubt oversold and would expect any further downside to become more "difficult"/limited as the downside momentum starts to slow and bottom (and potential $4-$5 bounce) nears.  Nearby support is seen at $53.75/00 (recent low, base of the multi-week bear channel) and the base of the bull channel from Sept (cur at $53.10/35).  Nearby resistance is seen at $55.50/75, the bear t-line from the Jan 8th spike high (cur at $56.50/75) and the ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at $57.75/00). 

$/cad near recent highs, up from the Dec 31st low at 1.2950 (also base of bear channel from Sept) and with gains to the ceiling (cur at 1.3305/20) still favored.  Though there is some risk for a week or 2 of consolidating, a resumption of the gains would be favored ahead.  Note that technicals are still bullish (see buy mode on the daily macd) while the upmove from the low occurred in 5 waves (upside not "complete").  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3170/85 (recent high, ceiling of the bull channel from the low).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3100/15, that bull t-line from July (cur at 1.3075/90) and the base of the channel from the low (cur just below).  

More choppy trade in cable as the view over the last month of an extended period of wide ranging from the Dec spike high at 1.3515 (as the market corrects the upmove from Sept) and with eventual new highs after, continues to play out.  Still favor a triangle/pennant forming and would argue another few weeks of trading in a tighter and tighter range before resolving higher.  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling/bear t-line from late Dec (cur at 1.3180/95), support is seen at 1.3050/65 and the bull t-line from Nov/base (cur at 1.2980/95).  

In gold, the view over the last few weeks of an extended period of wide chopping (month or more as part of a major topping) continues to play out.  Nearby support is seen at $1550/53 (base of bull channel from Nov, bull t-line from Jan 14th) with a break/close below below arguing weakness toward $1535/38 (Jan 14th low) and even $1526/29 (50% from the Nov 12th low at $1446, multi-week falling support line) as part of this larger period of wide ranging.  Nearby resistance is seen at $1473/76.   

A$ has continued lower from the Dec 31st peak at .7035 (also the ceiling of the bear channel from Dec 2018) and as been discussing over the last few weeks, the inability to resume the larger upmove argues a more extended period of wide ranging and even new lows below that Oct .6670 low (but likely limited/short-lived).  Note too the the 3 wave rally from Oct (A-B-C, a correction) and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd).  But the path/timing of the downside is a question (more directly ahead or extended period of chopping).  Nearby support is seen at .6790/05 (bull t-line and 62% retracement from the .6670), resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the high (cur at .6880/95, break/close above would increase the likelihood of more extended path lower).   

S&P 500 slipping from the Jan 22nd high at 3338 with lots of negatives suggesting an increasing risk of a top (and 200 pt decline).  They include an overbought market after the 1 way surge from the Oct low at 2856, in the final upleg from that low (wave v) and bearish technicals (see sell mode on the daily macd).  But as been discussing for some time, there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise" (5 waves down for example) and given the still strong momentum, must continue to assume further gains.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from early Dec (cur at 3275/80) and the bull t-line from Oct (cur at 3215/20).  Resistance above the recent 3338 high is seen at the rising t-line from Nov (cur at 3350/55). 

January 18, 2020

Eur/$ near recent lows, down from the Dec 31st high at 1.1240 and testing support at 1.1080/95 (Jan 10th low, bull t-line from early Dec).  In the big picture, the failure to resume the larger upside has increased the likelihood of a more extended period of wide ranging (few months, and even new lows below 1.0880) as part of a more major bottoming.  So strategically looking to trade with a shorter term bias, fading extremes, key support/resistance areas given the expectation of more of this wide rangy/choppy trade ahead.  Further support is just below 1.1080/95 at 1.1045/60 (both the bull t-line from late Nov and a 50% retracement from the 1.0880 low).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the high (cur at 1.1155/70) and again that 1.1225/40 area (Dec high, ceiling of the bear channel from Jan 2019).   

$/yen near recent highs, into lots of resistance at 110.30/55 (bear t-line from 2015, ceiling of bull channel from Oct) and an "ideal" area to form a top for at least a few weeks (and likely longer).  Still no confirmation but looking for higher confidence of at least a shorter term top to increase the likelihood (5 waves down on short term chart, bearish false break of this resistance, etc.) as larger reversals generally begin with smaller ones.  Nearby support is seen at 109.60/75 (multiple broken highs from Nov) and 108.85/00 (50% from the Jan 8th spike low at 107.65).  

US 10yr yield in recent ranges, still forming that very long discussed rising wedge from Sept.  Though this still targets eventual gains above that Nov 1.97% high, there remains that risk for more ranging and even a retest of the key 1.67/69% area first (base of the wedge, Dec 3rd low, 50% from the Sept low at 1.43%, base of channel from Nov, see in red on daily chart below).  Support before there is seen at 1.76/77% (recent lows), resistance is seen at 1.96/97%.   

US$/DXY has indeed continued higher from the Dec 31st low at 96.35 and quickly nearing that bigger picture "pivotal" resistance at 97.85/15 (bear t-line and 50% from the Oct high 99.65).  In the longer term, the view over the last few months of a major top (9-12 months) at the Oct peak remains.  Seen "pivotal" as staying below would keep open scope for that larger rolling over (and more significant declines) ahead.  However a break/close above would argue a more extended period (as much as a few months) of this longer term ranging/topping first.  Nearby support is seen at the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at 97.05/20) and again that key 96.20/35 area (Dec low, falling support line from Oct). 

Oil finally stabilizing after the huge reversal from the Jan 8th spike high at $65.62 and with at least another few weeks of upside ahead.  A couple of other notes...there is some potential for another few days of bottoming as reversals after sharp moves often take a more extended period of time (to allow the momentum to slow).  Additionally, this upside may be good sized as market will often back fill areas of rapid moves (as seen at that Jan 8th reversal).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the week long bear channel (cur at $58.80/05) and $60.45/70 (38% from the $65.62 spike high).  Support is seen at $57.40/65 (recent low, bull t-line from Oct).  

In cable no change in the big picture view over the last month of an extended period of wide ranging from the Dec 13th peak at 1.3515 (as the market corrects after the rally from the Sept low at 1.1955).  Short term the market is just above "pivotal" support at the bull t-line from Nov (cur at 1.2950/75) as remaining above would argue a more limited, big picture downside (potential huge triangle/pennant ?), while a break/close below would argue a deeper pullback (as part of this multi-month correction).  Further support below there is seen at 1.2890/05 (Dec 23rd low) and the base of the bull t-line from Sept (cur at 1.2815/40).   

$/cad choppy near recent highs, up from the Dec 31st low at 1.2950.  With no confirmation of a more important low (at least so far) and false break of that bull t-line from Jul, "prefer" (reflects lower confidence) of a rolling over and declines back to the 1.2935/50 low (also the falling support line from Feb 2019 and potentially below).  Support before there is seen at 1.3015/30.  Note however that a break/close above that Jan 9th high at 1.3100/15 would abort and argue a more important low is in place (so a good risk/reward area to be short against).  

Gold in the $1536/$1611 range since that Jan 8th spike high and as the view of an extended period of wide chopping (as much as a few months) as part of a major topping, remains.  In general would have an approach of fading the extremes (and then being aggressive with stops) as the swings in both directions are expected to be wide.  Nearby resistance is seen at ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at $1565/68).  Support is seen at $1545/48, $1535/38 (recent low) and $1526/29 (Jan 14th low, base of the channel, 50% from the Nov low at $1446).     

A$ within that bigger picture "pivotal" time (resumption of larger gains or more extended period of ranging/bottoming to that Oct .6670).  Currently not a lot of confidence in either but the inability to resume of the bigger picture gains over the next week or 2 and/or break below .6825/50 support (base of channel from late Oct, 50% from .6670 and Jan 8th low) would increase the likelihood of that longer term bottoming first.  Nearby support is seen at the the bull t-line from Nov (cur at .6860/75), resistance is seen at .6930/45 (recent high) and .7020/35 (Dec high, ceiling of bear channel from Dec 2018).  

S&P 500 at yet another new, all time high.  As been discussing for quite a while, despite lots of negatives there is still no confirmation of even a shorter term top "pattern-wise" while the upside momentum remains strong.  So must continue to assume further gains as the market "melts up".  Further resistance above the recent 3326 high is seen at the top of the bull channel from early Dec (cur at 3348/52).  Support is seen at the 2 week bull t-line (cur at 3297/02) and the base of the channel from early Dec (cur at 3269/74).