FX ANALYTICS  COMMENTARY

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September 16, 2019

[2100/1600] S&P 500 stalling near recent highs, again in that long discussed "ideal" area to form a major top at 3025/50 (July high, ceiling of multi-year rising wedge).  Note however that the upmove from the Aug 15th low at 2826 is not "complete", arguing another few weeks of this ranging/chopping before finally rolling over more significantly (see in red on daily char below).  Nearby support is seen at 2957/62 and 2938/43 (broken highs from Aug). 

[1900/1400] yet another new high in a$/kiwi, building on the sharp reversal from the Aug 6th spike low at 1.0265 (retest of the Mar low) and with still no confirmation of even a short term top (so far) arguing further gains.  Note however, the market is overbought after that sharp rally suggesting a rising risk of an approaching top (for at least a few weeks) and will be looking for signs ahead (slowing upside momentum, 5 waves down on very short term chart, etc.),  Nearby resistance at the ceiling of the month long bull channel (cur at 1.0820/35), support is seen at 1.0725/40 (broken Apr high) and the base of the channel (cur at 1.0685/00). 

[1700/1200] Gold did bounce from recent lows and test of support at $1484/87 (Sept 10th low, base of bull channel from May) and as the view over the last few weeks of an important top (at least a month or 2) remains.  Currently the market is testing that "pivotal" bear t-line from the high (cur at $1512/15) as a break/close above would argue a more extended period of topping before rolling over (see in red on daily char below).  Further resistance above there is seen at $1522/55 (50% from the $1557 high). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen did indeed stall at the Sept 13th high and test of resistance at 120.00 (both the bear t-line from Apr and the ceiling of the multi-week bull channel, see daily chart below).  In the big picture a low for at least a few months is seen in place (technicals remain bullish, see buy mode on the daily macd) with this recent weakness seen as a correction.  Note however that the market is nearing "pivotal" support at 118.15/30 (both the ceiling of the bull channel from the low and the broken bear t-line from Jul) as a break/close below would argue a more extended period of correcting/bottoming before resuming the larger upmove.    

[1300/0800] US$/DXY remains choppy as the view of an extended period of ranging as part of a more important topping continues to play out.  Still no confirmation of such a peak raises scope for more sloppy trade and even a retest (and temp break) of the 99.30/45 high (also the rising t-line from Apr, year long bear t-line) as part of the process.  Resistance before there is seen at nearby support is seen at 98.55/40), support is seen at 97.75/90, the bull t-line from Jun (cur at 97.50/65) and the base of that long discussed, year long rising wedge (cur at 96.55/70).   

Blog updates Tue, Thu, Fri, Sat this week

September 14, 2019

Eur/$ no change as the view of an extended period of wide chopping as part of a bottoming (at least a few months and potentially much more) continues to play out (see email from last Tuesday).   Still no confirmation of the final low "pattern-wise" keeps open scope for more of this chopping as part of the process and before more important gains are finally seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance remains at the bear t-line from June (cur at 1.1110/25), 1.1245/60 and that more major year long bear t-line/ceiling of that huge falling wedge (cur at 1.1295/20).  Nearby support is seen at 1.1005/20 and again that major 1.0900/25 area (recent lows, base of the year long falling wedge). 

$/yen has indeed continued higher from Aug 26th low at 104.50, after completing the 5 wave decline from at least the Apr peak at 112.40  and as the view of a bottom for at least a few months remains (see email from last Monday).  Currently still no confirmation of even a short term peak, but the market is short term overbought and argues a rising risk of an approaching top for at least a few weeks (not the time to "chase").  Nearby resistance is seen at 118.10/25 (recent high, bear t-line from Apr) with 108.40/55 just above (50% from that Apr 112.40 high).  Nearby support is seen at 107.40/55 and the bull t-line from the Aug low (cur at 106.90/05). 

US 10yr yield has indeed continued to surge from that Sept 3rd low at 1.43% (test of the base of that 6 year bull channel) and as the view of a bottom for at least a few months remains in place (see email from Weds).  But as also discussed, there is scope for a more extended period of wide chopping (common after sharp declines as seen over the last year).  Note too that the market is testing lots of resistance at 1.91/96% (ceiling of the bear channel from multi-year bull channel from last Jan and a 38% retracement from the Jan high at 2.80%), an "ideal" area to form a peak for at least a few weeks (though still no confirmation).  Nearby support is seen at 1.74/76% and 1.67/69%. 

Oil view over the last few months of an extended period of wide, choppy ranging/consolidating still playing out.  So generally would stay with that long held approach of fading (not chasing) extremes, key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops to try to capture some of these swings.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from Aug (cur at $53.65/90), $52.60/85 and $50.40/65 (Jun/Aug double bottom).  Nearby resistance is seen at $56.25/50 (50% retracement from the Sept 10th high at $58.73), that $58.50/75 high and the longer term bear t-line from last Oct (cur at $59.45/70).   

US$/DXY choppy near recent highs as the view of a topping (at least a few months and potentially much more) remains (see email from Thurs).  Technicals continue to deteriorate (see bearish divergence/sell mode on the daily macd) while the market continues to form that year long rising wedge/reversal pattern.  Near term however and as been discussing, there remains scope for a continued period of this broader ranging/chopping before a larger rolling over and more significant declines are finally seen.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from June (cur at 97.50/65), 97.00/15 and the bull t-line from Sept 2018/base of the large rising wedge (cur at 95.40/65). 

Cable has accelerated higher after breaking above the multi-week rising t-line and as that view of a more important low (at least a few months) remains.  Note too that the shorter term upside pattern over the last week is not "complete" (cur within wave iii) while technicals remain positive (see buy mode on the daily macd) arguing at least some further, near term gains as well.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.2500/15 (38% from the Mar high at 1.3385) and the bear t-line from that peak (cur at 1.2655/70).  Nearby support is now at that broken, multi-week bull t-line (cur at 1.2395/10). 

$/cad building on the upside from the Sept 10th low at 1.3135 and within that long discussed bear channel from Dec.  With no strong signs of a resolution any time soon, would generally stay with the approach of looking to fade extremes, key support/resistance area and then being aggressive with stops in an attempt to capture some of these swing in both directions.  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.3285/00 and the whole 1.3365/95 area (bear t-line from May, Sept 3rd high and the ceiling of the bull channel from the Jul low at 1.3015).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3220/35 and 1.3130/45 (recent low). 

Gold heavy near recent lows, down from the Sept 4th high at $1557 and as the view of a top (for at least a few months) remains in place.  Currently the market is testing support at $1483/86 (recent low, base of bull channel from May), seen "pivotal" for the short term as remaining above keeps open scope for a more extended period of topping (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from the high (cur at $1519/22, break close above would argue that more extended period of topping). 

A$ has continued higher from the Sept 3rd spike low at .6685 (test of the Aug 7th low) and with gains to the ceiling of the long discussed, year long falling wedge (cur at .6990/10 and eventually above) still favored.  Short term the market is starting to stall, increasing the risk for a few weeks of consolidating along the way high (though still no confirmation).  Nearby resistance is seen at .6890/05 (recent high, ceiling of week long rising t-line and a 50% retracement from the July high at .7085).  Support is seen at .6785/00, the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at .6725/40) and again that major .6675/00 area (recent lows, base of year long falling wedge).   

S&P 500 building on the gains over the last few weeks and still no confirmation of even a short term top.  As been discussing however, such gains would be seen part of an extended period of wide ranging as part of a more major topping.  Note too that the market is again quickly nearing that very long discussed "ideal" area to form a major at 3025/50 (ceiling of multi-year rising wedge).  So will be looking for signs of a near term topping ahead (slowing upside momentum, 5 waves down on shorter term chart, etc.) to increase the likelihood of that more important peaking.  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from late Aug (cur at 2990/95) and 2940/55 (broken highs from Aug). 

September 13, 2019

[1900/1400] Bitcoin has indeed continued to consolidate as the view of at least a few months of ranging from that Jun 26th high Still seen forming a large triangle/pennant, generally seen as a continuation pattern and suggesting an eventual upside resolution.  However, there does remain scope for a further period of this ranging within the pattern first (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling/bear t-line from June (cur at 11200/350, break/close above may trigger an upside acceleration), support is seen at the base/bull t0line from July (cur at 9200/9350).   

[1700/1200] A$/kiwi jumping higher after breaking above the Apr high at 1.0730, pushing to levels not seen since last Nov and building in the Aug 6th spike low at 1.0265 (test of the market low).  No doubt that break to new highs is a positive sign but the market is testing resistance at the ceiling of the bull channel from Aug (see daily chart below) and is overbought after the surge from the low.  So a tough time to chase from here (if not already positioned and versus waiting for pullbacks to buy).  Nearby support is now at that broken 1.0720/35 high and the base of the channel from Aug (cur at 1.0665/80).    

[1500/1000] Eur/yen has continued sharply higher from that Sept 3rd low at 115.85, with a bottom for at least another month or 2 still seen in place.  Currently the market is testing lots of resistance at 120.00/35 (bear t-line from Apr, 38% retracement from the Mar 1st high at 127.50, ceiling of the bull channel from the low, see daily chart below) and "ideal" area to form a top for at least a week or 2.  Nearby support is seen at 119.00/15 and 118.15/30 (broken bear t-line from Jul).  

[1300/0800] Eur/$ snapping quickly back from yesterday's low, testing that longer term 1.0900/25 support area (Sept 3rd low, base of year long falling) and as the view of a bottoming (at least a month or 2 and potentially much more) continues to play.  Currently the market is testing resistance at the bear t-line from June (cur at 1.1115/30), seen "pivotal" as remaining below keeps open scope for a further period of this ranging/bottoming.  Nearby support is seen at 1.1005/20.

September 12, 2019

[2100/1600] S&P 500 has indeed continued higher, nearing that July high and test of the long discussed "ideal" area to form a major top at 3025/50 (also the ceiling of the multi-year rising wedge).  Though no confirmation of even a shorter term top, a slowing of the upside momentum ahead would start to increase the likelihood of an approaching peak (and potentially major peak).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from late Aug 9cur at 2985/00) and 2940/55 (broken highs from Aug).     

[1900/1400] Gold down from the Sept 4th high at $1557 and as that view of an important top (at least a few months) remains in place.  Technicals remain bearish (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd) while the market is overbought after the surge from Apr.  Currently the market is testing support at the base of the bull channel from May (cur at $1481/86) and though it may hold for a few days/week, any near term upside would likely be limited and part of a larger topping.  Further support below $1481/86 is seen at $1440/45 (38% from that Apr low at $1266), while resistance is seen at $1421/24 and again that $1555/58 peak. 

[1700/1200] $/yen higher again, building on the snap back from the Aug 26th spike low at 104.50 and testing the bear t-line from Apr (cur at 118.10/25).   Though no confirmation of even a short term top so far (argues further gains), a tough time to chase from here as the market is getting near term overbought.  Note too that further resistance is above that bear t-line from Apr at 118.35/50 (both the ceiling of the bull channel from Aug and a 50% retracement from that Apr high at 112.40).  So even a break above may be limited.  Nearby support is seen at 117.45/60 and the bull t-line from that Aug spike low (cur at 116.85/00). 

[1500/1000] Oil turning sharply lower from the Sept 10th high at $58.73 and as that very long held view (months) of extended period of wide ranging (and larger swings in both directions) continues to play out.  With no signs of a change, must assume more of the same ahead.  So would generally stay with that long held approach of fading extremes, key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops on in an attempt to capture some of these moves in both directions (have to take what the market gives).  Nearby support is seen at $53.45/70 (bull t-line, 62% retracement from the Aug 7th low at $50.55), $52.65/90 and $50.45/70 (Jun, Aug lows).  Nearby resistance is seen at $55.70/65 and $56.60/85.   

[1300/0800]  Eur/$ did indeed roll back over, again nearing that long term support at 1.0900/25 (Sept 3rd low, falling support line/base of wedge from Aug 2018).  Still seen part of a larger bottoming with any further downside likely limited (see in re don daily chart below).  Note too that the market is seen within the final downleg in the decline from the Jun 5th high at 1.1415 (wave v).  Nearby resistance is seen at the bear t-line from Aug (cur at 1.1060/75) and the bear t-line from the June high (cur at 1.1100/15).  

September 10, 2019

[2100/1600] $/mxn has continued lower from the Aug 29th high/test of the bear t-line from Jan 2017 at 20.26 and within that multi-year period of wide ranging.  Note the tighter and tighter range over that time argues a large triangle/pennant, generally viewed as a continuation pattern and argues an eventual upside resolution.  Near term however, there is scope for gains toward the base/bull t-line from July 2017 first (cur at 18.90/00) first (see "ideal" scenario in red on daily chart below). 

 

[1900/1400] A$/kiwi near recent highs, up from the Aug 6th spike low at 1.0265 (and test of the Mar low).  Still no confirmation of even a short term top but the market is overbought after the rally over the last month while technicals are starting to stall, and in turn argues an approach top (for at least a few weeks).  Note too that resistance is just above the recent 1.0710 high at 1.0730/45 (Apr high and the ceiling of the multi-week bull channel) and "potential" area to form such a peak.  Nearby support is seen at the base (cur at 1.0620/35). 

[1700/1200] Eur/gbp has indeed continued lower from that Aug 12th high at .9325 (test of the Aug 2017 high) and after completing the 5 wave rally from the Mar low at .8475.  Short term there is no confirmation of even a near term bottom but the market is oversold and suggests a rising risk of a bottom for at least a few weeks.  Though no confirmation so far, would expect any weakness below that recent .8905 to be limited/well bid.  Note too that further support is just below there at .8885/00 (base of the bear channel from the Aug high and a 50% retracement from the .8475 low).  Nearby resistance is seen at .9010/25 and the ceiling of the channel (cur at .9095/10). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen firm near its highs, up from the Sept 3rd low at 115.85 and as that view of a bottom (for leastr a month and potentially much more) remains.  Currently the market is testing lots of resistance in the while pivotal resistance in the whole 118.75/25 area (bear t-line from July, ceiling of bear channel from June).  Seen "pivotal" as remaining below would argue a more extended period of ranging/bottoming before more significant gains are seen.  Nearby support si seen at 117.30/45 and again that 115.70/85 area (Sept 3rd low, base of the bear channel from June). 

[1300/0800] US$/DXY down from the Aug 30th high at 99.35 and after finally reaching that long discussed "ideal" area to form a top (few months) and potentially more major top.  Note too that technicals remain bearish (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd).  But with no signs/confirmation of a downside resolution so far, must assume a further period of this broader ranging/chopping before more significant declines are finally seen. So would generally stay with that long held approach of trading with a shorter term bias, fading extremes, key support/resistance area and then being aggressive with stops to try to capture since of these swings.  Nearby support is seen at 97.90/05 and the bull t-line from June (cur at 97.45/60).  Resistance is seen at 98.45/60 and 98.30/45 (recent high, rising t-line from Nov).     

September 07, 2019

END OF WEEK UPDATES

Eur/$ did bounce from that Sept 3rd low at 1.0925, testing the longer term falling support line/base of large falling wedge from last Aug.  Seen as an “ideal” area to form a low (and potentially major low 9-12 months), as falling wedges are viewed as bottom/reversal patterns (see email from last Monday).  Near term however, a period of back filling is common after such sharp reversals and at potentially more important turning points, raising scope for at least another week or 2 of this larger bottoming and before more significant gains are seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above the recent 1.1080/95 high is seen at the bear t-line from June (cur at 1.1130/45).  Support is seen at 1.0990/05 and again that 1.0900/25 area (recent low, base of the year long wedge).         

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hv1OMKd7/

$/yen has indeed continued higher from the Aug 26th temp low at 104.50 (and longer term “ideal” area to form a more important low) and as that view of a larger bottom/bottoming remains (at least a month or 2 and potentially much more).  Note too that technicals remain bullish (see bull divergence/buy mode on the daily macd) while the market is seen potentially completing the 5 wave decline from at least the Apr high at 112.40.  However, there is still no confirmation “pattern-wise” (5 waves up for example), keeping open scope for a continued period of this larger bottoming (see in red on daily chart below).  Currently the market is near its highs with the failure to build on the upside and break above resistance at 107.65/80 nearby (ceiling of bear channel from Apr, ceiling of bull channel from Aug) starting to increase the likelihood of that more extended bottoming.  Nearby support is seen at the base of the channel from Aug (cur at 105.65/80) and again that longer term 104.45/85 area.    

https://www.tradingview.com/x/09ylWZN1/

US 10 yr yield choppy near recent lows as the view of a bottom/bottoming for at least a month (and likely much longer) continues to play out.  Positive technicals (see bull divergence/buy mode on the daily macd) and likely completion of the 5 wave decline from at least the Jul 12th high at 2.15% add to this view.  Short term there is scope for more consolidating, but any near term downside would likely be limited and part of this bottoming (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling of the multi-week bear channel (cur at 1.60/61%), support remains at 1.41/43% (recent low, multi-week falling support line).   

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pay3fFxz/

US$/DXY has indeed turned sharply lower from the Aug 30th high at 99.35 and after finally reaching that very long discussed “ideal” area to form a major top (6-9 months or more, see email from Weds).  But must remember that more major reversals often take some time to form, so may see a further period of this broader ranging (and good sized swings in both directions) before a more major decline/rolling over is finally seen.  Nearby support is seen at 97.90/05 (38% retracement from the June low at 95.85) and the bull t-line from that low (cur at 97.45/60).  Resistance is seen at 98.35/50 and that 98.30/45 peak (and the rising t-line from Apr).           https://www.tradingview.com/x/QjYEVRnD/

In oil, no change as the very long held view of an extended period of wide ranging (months) continues to unfold.  With still no firm signs of a resolution, must assume more of this broad consolidating ahead.  So strategically would stay with that long held approach of fading (not chasing) extremes, key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops in an attempt to capture some of these swings in both directions (have to take what the market gives).  Resistance is seen at $57.65/90 (recent highs, bear t-line from Apr) and the bearish trendline from Oct (cur at $59.90/15).  Support is seen at $54.90/15, $52.80/05 and $50.40/65 (Jun/Aug lows).      

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FwEYUNi4/

$/cad has finally rolled over after only a temp break above the Aug 7th high at 1.3345 (failure), and with further declines back to the Jul low at 1.3015 (and even below) favored.  Technicals also remain bearish (see sell mode on the daily macd).  Near term however, there is some risk for a period of chopping/consolidating on the way lower, a common occurrence when near the middle of a larger period of ranging (as now).  Nearby support is seen at 1.3145/60 (recent low, 62% retracement from the July 1.3015 low).  Resistance is seen at the broken bull t-line from July (cur at 1.3285/00), 1.3340/55 (Aug high) and 1.3385/00.       

https://www.tradingview.com/x/mXUrmPOS/

Cable near recent highs, up from the Sept 3rd temp low at 1.1955 and as the view of a bottom for at least a month (and likely longer) remains in place.  Still bullish technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd) and completion of the 5 wave decline from at least the May 3rd high at 1.3175 add to that view.  Nearby support is seen at the recently broken ceiling of the bear channel from May (cur at 1.2200/15) and the bull t-line from Aug (cur at 1.2120/35).  Resistance above the recent 1.2355 high is seen at 1.2420/35 (38% retracement from the May high at 1.3175).    

https://www.tradingview.com/x/B4x77W0C/

In gold the view of an extended period of ranging as part of a larger topping (few months and potentially more, and to allow upside momentum to slow) continues to unfold.  Bearish technicals (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd) and overbought market after the surge from Apr add to the larger topping view.  Short term there does remain some risk for more of this chopping, but any near term upside would again likely be limited (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby support is seen at multi-week bull t-line (cur at $1508/11) and the base of the bull channel from May (cur at $1470/73).  Resistance is seen at $1556/59 (Aug 26th/Sept 4th highs) and the ceiling of that channel (cur at $1585/88).      

https://www.tradingview.com/x/t4v7GtW8/

A$ building on the upside from the Sept 3rd low at .6685 (also both the Aug 7th low and base of long discussed falling wedge from last Oct), with gains to the ceiling of the wedge (cur at .7000/25) and eventually above still favored.  Technicals also remain positive (see bull divergence/buy mode on the daily macd).  Further resistance is just above the recent .6860 high at .6875/90 (50% from the Jul 19th peak at .7085, may provide a few days/week of resistance).  Nearby support is seen at the base of the bull channel from the low (cur at .6770/85) and again that longer term .6680/10 area (base of the wedge and Aug 7th/Sept 3rd lows).       

https://www.tradingview.com/x/84oj81EP/

S&P 500 at recent highs near 2985/90 after breaking above that 2940/45 resistance area (held since Aug) and along with positive technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd), are seen as near term positives.  But further upside would likely be limited as the market is seen in the process of that long term topping (see email from Friday).  Further resistance above 2985/90 is seen in that long discussed “ideal” area to form a major top at 3025/50.  Support is now at the broken 2940/45 area and the bull t-line from the recent lows (cur at 2922/27).     

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ps5yULa0/

September 06, 2019

[2100/1600] Bitcoin continues to consolidate from the Jun 26th high as the view of an extended period of ranging, as the market forms is a triangle/pennant, continues to play out.  Triangles/pennants are viewed as continued patterns still suggesting an eventual upside resolution (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the ceiling/bear t-line from June (cur at 11500/11650), support remains at the base (cur at 9100/9250).  A final word, triangle/pennants often occur before the final move in the larger trend, meaning such an upside resolution may be more of a short-lived spike and versus the start of a more extended, new upleg.   

[1900/1400] AAPL (Apple Computer stock, good proxy for the broader market) continues to chop in recent ranges and with the larger consolidation since the Jan low at $142.00.  Though seen part of a much larger topping, a continued period of this ranging (and likely swings in both directions).  So would generally stay with that long held approach of fading extremes, key support/resistance areas and then being aggressive with stops in an attempt to capture some of these swings.  Nearby resistance is seen at $214/15 (Recent and Aug 22nd highs) and $220/22 (Jul 31st high and the bear t-;line from Oct 2018).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from June (cur at $203/04), $192/93 (Aug low) and the bull t-line from last Jan (cur at $188/89).  

[1700/1200] Kiwi has continued to surge from the Sept 3rd low at .6270, reaching an earlier high at .6645.  Still positive technicals (see buy mode on the daily macd) and strong near term upside momentum argues further gains.  But the market is getting a bit overbought short term, raising the risk of an approaching peak for at least a week (and potentially more), and will be looking for signs ahead (slowing upside momentum, 5 waves down on very short term chart, etc.).  Further resistance is just above the earlier .6645 high at .6455/70 (38% from the Jul 19th high at .6790) and the longer term, broken bull t-line from Oct 2018 (cur at .6500/25).  Nearby support is seen at the bull t-line from the low (cur at .6355/70). 

[1500/1000] Eur/yen did snap right back from the Sept 3rd low at 115.85 as the view of a bottoming for at least a few months (and potentially much more) remains.  Note that the market is oversold after the tumble from March while technicals remains positive (see buy divergence/buy mode on the daily macd).  Shorter term there does remain scope for another few weeks of this larger basing/ranging before more significant gains are finally seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 118.65/80 (recent high, bear t-line from July) and 119.50/75 (ceiling of the bear channel from June, falling trendline from last Jan).  Nearby support is seen at 117.40/55 and 115.70/85 (recent low, base of the bear channel from June).  

[1300/0800] US$/DXY down from that Aug 30th high at 99.35 and test of the long discussed "ideal" area to form a top (and potentially major top, 6-9 months or more, see email from Weds).  Still no confirmation of even a shorter term peak "pattern-wise", but nearby gains would likely be limited and part of this larger topping process (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 98.65/80 (50% from that 99.35 peak) and again that 98.30/45 area (also the rising t-line from Nov).  Nearby support is seen at 98.10/25 and the bull t-line from Jun (cur at 97.35/50).  

September 04, 2019

[1700/1200] Gold consolidating from the Aug 26th high at $1555 with an overbought market and bearish technicals (see bear divergence/sell mode on the daily macd) arguing a rising risk of a top for at least a month or 2.  Though still no confirmation of even a shorter term peak, any further upside would likely be limited/short-lived (see in red on daily chart below).  Further resistance above $1553/56 is seen at the ceiling of the bull channel from May (cur at $1579/82), support is seen at the multi-week bull t-line (cur at $1524/27), $1490/93 and the baes of the multi-month channel 9cur at $1465/68). 

[1500/1000] In $/yen no change, as the view of at least a few weeks of chopping/bottoming continues to play out.  Positive technicals (see bull divergence/buy mode on the daily macd), oversold market after the decline from Apr and seen within the final downleg froim that high (wave 5) add to this larger, bottoming view.  But there does remain scope for more of this chopping before more significant gains are seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at the week long bear t-line (cur at 106.35/50) and again that 107.90/05 area (recent highs, broken falling trendline from Jan).  Nearby support is seen at 105.20/35 and that longer term 104.40/65 area.  

[1300/0800] Eur/$ did indeed bounce from yesterday's low and test of that longer term support at the falling trendline from Aug 2018 (cur at 1.0910/25).  Though there is potential of an approaching, more important low (see email from Monday), the downside pattern from at least the Aug 6th high at 1.1250 is not "complete" (cur within wave iv) and in turn argues further downside (potentially limited) before a more important low is seen (see in red on daily chart below).  Nearby resistance is seen at 1.1025/45 (Aug 1st low, broken falling support line from Nov) and the bear t-line from Jun (cur at 1.1140/55).