FXA Plants Corner



Leave Of Absence… Continued

7:00AM New York time. I had a lot of thoughts run through my head yesterday in thinking about what to say this morning. Obviously yesterday was a painful day for anyone long gold or short the Euro. That’s me on both counts. I think it was the worst single day percentage loss I’ve ever had. Once I got over the not-even-feeling-like-talking-about-it part, I started getting that upset-with-the-markets feeling… thinking about all the things I was going to say about how the markets have changed, how they don’t seem to be consistently on any one theme, and how the participant base has narrowed so much that those that are left are simply trading against one another… looking for stops and then going back the other way… just day-trading.

More time passed and I cooled down even more. All of those things I said above (plus many more) may be true. But markets are just markets. And if there is anything “wrong” then it is in how each of us relates to them. I was the one that left without stops… or a call level… or a device to keep tabs. I hadn’t had to for the past few months. Well guess what….. I do now. The fact is, I DO think much of what I said above is true. And no… I can’t leave the markets for any single day without communication and/or risk protection any more. Yes that does speak volumes to the environment we are in. But that’s the way it is. If I still want to play, that is what I have to do to stay in.

The question I ask is… am I still equipped or do I even WANT to deal with them on these terms. And can I be successful with my particular methodology in this environment. My friend Jim has always said success with markets is all about context. If you’ve got a particular set up that works with your personal psychology and methodology that’s great. You need to stick with that and hope nothing changes. You should certainly not change anything YOU do. The problem is markets are dynamic. They change from under you. I never had a problem being out in oyster land and managing to run capital at the same time. I would have my plan set up, have my orders in, and it wouldn’t matter that I didn’t watch every wiggle up and down. Much of the time it worked out better that way. Perhaps I had grown too complacent… and yesterday was a wake-up call. I will certainly never leave without stops or a call level again.

I am currently out of all my positions. I need to rethink these markets and how I approach them. I probably need to take some time off. I have not been as focused on markets lately as I should be. Asher Joseph remains a handful. The oyster business is going nuts. Sales are at record highs and the call for more just keeps building. Our Co-Op is debating a price increase. You know… I said some years ago the markets would become increasingly irrelevant for a society (country) where people are focused on doing “real stuff”. That’s happening right now for me on a personal level, and yet it is more painful than I ever imagined it would be. I should be happy. But I have spent years watching markets… and I truly enjoy the psychological interplay of how crowds deal with news and information and how it plays out in price. True… I don’t necessarily enjoy big moves one direction one day and then another big move right back the next when there’s no underlying flow.. But hey… it’s not about the markets… it’s about me.

I have decided to take next week off to get my head together. One way or another I’ll post again on Monday the 12th. What my decision will be at that point I have no idea. Good luck today with Payrolls. I have the luxury right now of not needing to care.

Steve Plant


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